5-Handed: recreational limp ($800), Hero $80 BTN KJ ($4,000), SB fold, LAG $300 ($2,150) BB, folds.

Flop ($645): K98 BB $345 Hero call.
Turn ($1335): 8 BB jams $1525

• Probably 5th time he 3bet me in 2 sessions we played
• folded most times and called once and folded flop.
• Im the only new "reg" in the game the other regs seem to be playing this game for a while
• Probably views me as TAG on the tighter side

I will give my analysis after the discussion, interesting to see what you guys have to say.

For those who say fold, what is the bottom of your calling range?

Fold. The bottom calling range would probably KQ with Qs?


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With LAGs in the blind, I'm not that big a fan of isolating an early position limper who is sitting on 40 BBs. KJ is going to be tough to play on most flops, and you are likely to be facing opponents (shorties and LAGs) who want to play fast.

It's a little counterintuitive, but I would rather call, and then watch the action from the LAGs and the shorty before deciding how to proceed, especially if calling widens the LAGs squeezing range.

I think its just a fold. If I were trying to do this quickly at the table:

1. Getting under 2:1, lets say 33% to make the maths nice.

2. Against natural bluffing hands like AQ(sx) AJ(sx) Ax(sx) we have 75% equity

3. Against his value range we're basically drawing dead.

4. We can see by inspection if our call is to be +EV, he needs to have around at least as many bluffs as value hands. (actual ratio is 4:5 but we're getting worse than 2:1 pot odds so lets be conservative.

6. Value combos = AA(6) KK(1) Axss(5 maybe as a guess?) AK(8), a few flushes (5 or so?) = 25.

7. Need him to have about 25 bluffs. AQsx(6) AJsx(6) Silly Axo bluffs(add in as many as you see fit...).

It all seems rather rough, but I don't think we're getting the right price. As you can see it probably depends a lot on how wide he 3bets, and if he 3bets these junk aces (understandably its hard to know without history.) I think this is a good methodology to go about it even if you dont agree with my ranges (e.g. you may think he might check with AK OTT sometimes, IDK.)

I think its closer if it were KT9 (theres a ton of offsuit gutshots an aggro player can be ripping here, all AJ, AQ QJ etc.)

In terms of how we should approach this spot theoretically...its 2am and need to go to bed. Keep crushing bud.

Fold

Would call with KQ or KJ with the flush out I think though

I like over-limping pre but that's a small thing. Raise pre is obviously not bad. Can also consider 4bet pre, but call is ok.

As played I fold.

You mean you would call with KxQ or KxJ? Why is that? We would just block more of his bluffs if we had a ?

kjcc is a much better bluff catcher than kq w q of spades
pretty sure this is just a snap for less than 100bb at 10/20 effective

over limping this combo is awful
4b is awful as well
this whole post is pretty bad imo

The general issue with dry KJ and KQ in this spot is that many of the hands you hope to beat on the flop, namely the As hands, are going to shove the turn. Basically, you're trying to get to showdown and beat QQ JJ TT and the airballs like dry AQ/AJ QJ QT JT that decided to bet and give up.

It's not unlikely that the correct strategy is either to fold these hands on the flop or call down with them on this turn. I think you're probably in reasonably bad shape vs a sane flop betting range. Reasonably bad as in less than 50%, and your hand is ex-showdown disadvantaged. Meaning it will not realize much of that equity, whether it calls or folds on this turn.

Anyway, all that babbling to say that call flop fold turn is probably the standard line, but folding flop is probably reasonable too.

Equity matters much more than one blocker. Your opponent has so many AK+ hands here that sucking out with a fd is very relevant compared to significantly smaller bluffing range. Also J specifically might block a lot less fd's than Q.

Pre is fine, flop is fine, your opponent has a decent range advantage and is pushing any high flush draw and probably all the hands that beat you to balance it.

Meh, I changed my mind. I fold this, call KQ+ (KQ without isn't even EV+, but fk it) and KJ. The fact that your opponent might do this with KQ makes this a marginal fold. That's a pretty big folding range on the turn which means something here isn't right. Opponent does give up on the turn imo still now and then.

I think you might have to fold a lot on the flop or even get creative there.

^ are you sure? id be interested to compare ev of these two hands kx w a spade or kjcc

4b might be bad, but over-limping is definitely not awful.

Well it's better than folding :/

HOLIDAY HH POEM

not raising pre is results oriented madness,
calling the 3!- that's EV sadness,
yes he's a lag- but you said that he's good,
and that limper with 800 means that he should-
never be light- and so you always are crushed,
and rare is the case that you should mine for a flush,
KJ vs a 3! is like coal in the stocking,
unless 2 pair is something you are proficient at flopping...

but you got to the flop and you flopped the best pair,
345? yeah I guess that seems fair,
but all of those spades means he's got the nut blocker,
or he's got you dead (oh what a shocker!),
but position + pot odds = peeling is fine,
please bring a red jack Santa one time...

An 8 isn't great and we're ready to fold,
but now he ships and that seems kinda bold,
rockets with no spade? yeah I suppose,
but what other value hands does he hold?
is he on tilt like that fellow the grinch?
I'm starting to think he's just variance rich...

prob gotta be there to know the dynamic,
but when 5-10 pros ship they generally have it,
so we're gonna need a read to pay this man off,
but we shoulda folded pre and never been in this spot!

Happy Holidays

hahaha gold

Omfg soooo good

wp sir

Even I let out a chortle

^So the Grinch can chortle!

And with only a few weeks left in 2016 DGAF goes ahead and locks up POTY

excellent!

Fold pre, as played call.

Agree with you so bottom range is AsKx?

play bigger imo