Hi all

I am up against a NITTY player; I would like to see your thoughts on:
- a raise flop (to fold later)
- a possible flop fold
- a possible turn fold

game is 3/3 but plays easily 300 to 500 bb deep with frequent mississipi straddle

vilain is NIT

i open with AdAh to 15 in MP; Villain in btn looks at my stack (500 bb eff) before calling (obviously considering the implied)

BB calls with 40 behind

pot 45

flop K7c2c ;

Bb open shoves 40; I flat; villain raises to 150 (I don't have Ac but I put him on AK/KQ 77-22)

I flat

main pot is 165 and side pot 220 total 385

turn blank

I check
Villain bets 240

I tank flat

river blank; he bets 500

I folded

He showed KK

I wonder if on such dry flop I should have raised flop and if he calls/raise then I shut down as this NITTY never plays a draw aggressively for so much bb)

or whether I should have folded turn

You can thank idiot V for not 3! pre and just considering a flat/setmine versus you in MP with the second-best hand in poker lol. You should have lost a lot more tbh. I fold flop versus nit raise and personally unblocking the nfd is pretty irrelevant against this V type since he doesn't raise his nfds anyway.

If villain is a bonafide nit you could fold flop.

What assumptions does one make based on nit read? 22, 77, KcTc, KcJc, KcQc, AcKc is a nitty ridiculous range of the nuts. Your hand does not fair well vs that, so fold. If you're curious keep expanding his range and see how your equity improves. Even if we add in AQcc, AJcc, QJcc, JTcc it's not like we're in a remotely good spot. If you continue how loose do you imagine this nit really is?

I expect him to continue betting when he has it and to give up when he does not because I already showed that I had a hand when I call his raise on the flop

Can’t just say turns a blank. Turn card makes a huge difference in your continuing frequency same with river
Anyways think about what hands you get to the river with which ones are calling and which look like folds
As played decide if your hand is a bluff catcher or if you can beat some value bets look at your odds and if you feel comfortable giving up on the river for this action calling is definitely going to be higher ev than folding in most spots but if you feel like calling aa is losing then fold

Hard to say since we only know half the hand (we'll have to take your word on the blank on turn and river - many players would consider a jack here to be a blank, but certainly if he is willing to c/r KQ it's not insane for him to do it /w KcJc, which would still be beating you.) but I think these calls are perfect, provided they are really blanks.

Main reason is that I don't trust your live read that he NEVER plays draws like this. If you have been playing with this guy for YEARS and have played hundreds of rivers with him, then I could get behind an exploitative fold, but that is almost never the case. If you met him even somewhat recently, you don't have data on what his river tendencies are. If you are folding overpairs on safe boards, you are massively over-folding - particularly when both bets are 60% pot.

if he is nitty enough that you are capitalizing NITTY then i think I'd flat flop and comfortably fold turn.

when i mean blank turn was a 3 but did not open a FD; river 4

I def don't consider JQ or even T as blank here... even if I consider he flats KJ KT on flop

^yup

If you have been playing with this guy for YEARS and have played hundreds of rivers with him, then I could get behind an exploitative fold, but that is almost never the case

If you have been playing with this guy for YEARS and have played hundreds of rivers with him, then I could get behind an exploitative fold, but that is almost never the case