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Old 02-26-2019, 01:20 PM   #6601
atenesq
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

Quote:
Originally Posted by 8o8 View Post
interesting posts. being in the red over my last 250 hours (not that that's anything of note), although i handle variance very well in general, i've been thinking recently about how it's actually quite unnatural for humans to be unaffected by variance, in live poker especially, due to the crazily high expanses of time that you can run bad for. (basically because the game is so slow.) imagine if live cash ran at 300 hands/hr somehow, but everything else was the same. variance would be so much easier to handle, because top notch player would so rarely break even over multi-month or year long periods. human nature is to be emotionally invested in outcomes. and yet as pros we do everything in our power to keep ignoring outcomes that secretly we can't help but care about. all of this is hugely amplified by being underrolled, or not rolled. maybe the answer to where DGAF's "cumulative effect" of variance comes from lies in this endless, unnatural emotional tug-of-war?
So you figure out how to let go of the rope or you get pulled into the abyss.

What this variance obsession entails is taking these things that are general (life has swings, you get emotionally invested in things you can't control, you overestimate what you can accomplish in a year and underestimate what you can accomplish in five, financial stress is a mother, etc.) and forming and reinforcing a specific association with an activity in which you spend a lot of time engaged, and if you do that, you're gonna have a bad time.
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Old 02-26-2019, 02:06 PM   #6602
borg23
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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Originally Posted by upswinging View Post
Youre looking at your own subjective experience as a pro and then trying to extrapolate that into a logical hypothesis. It doesnt work that way. Zoom out. Think of the number of intelligent people who have attempted live cash since the boom. We’re talking about millions of Americans. Now think about the number of grinders who’ve had 10+ year success at live cash averaging say 100k+/year.

If intelligence and hard work is as important as the limons and borgs of the world say, then we should see many more successful live cash players. Why is it that not even 0.01% of all players who attempted this life path have “succeeded”? It’s quite obvious that intelligence/hard work/ will power (while essential) is not the single greatest attribute to long term success as a live pro.

It’s tough to accept that your long term success is attributed more to randomness than your own willpower and intelligence. Live pros will exist in the future, but will be nothing more than the anomalies we see in probability and statistics today.
i've never said intelligence and hard work are as important as other people make them out to be. neither did limon. limon makes a lot more money than poker nerds smarter and harder working than him because he gets what it takes to make it in poker.

if someone is a really good funadamental player and super hard working but they

1)have bad money management skills
2)can't avoid the pit
3)have egos so they play in bad games
4)can't handle the swings well and always play their a game
5)play in bigger games than they can afford
6)aren't fun for the game
people don't want to give you action and you never get invited to great often rake free home games

they're not going to do that well in the long run.

I mean you can't be a complete moron or totally lazy, bad at poker and win.
But it's not that hard to play reasonably decent poker if you're halfway intelligent
if you do the total opposite of 1-6 and play decent poker you'll make way more money than someone a lot better than you at poker fundamentally but does all or most of 1-6.

it's like a baseball player who is similarly talented to the guys around him who outworks them all. but then he has zero plate disipline and chases everything. he won't do as well as the guy with a little less talent who works less hard who has a ton more disipline.

I've said it on here before people massively overrate the minutia of the exact ev of how to play hands on super close decisions when it means nothing either way, but then do lots of things that hurt their bottom line. tilting, playing underolled, pissing away lots of money on nonsense when running well etc.

I mean limon is a good example. I remember a while back people said he couldn't beat zoom nl on stars (or something like that ) at low stakes. What these people miss is he doesn't have to! He plays reasonably decent poker and does the things in poker, including cultivating good games and not tilting really well.If he's playing 10/20 plo at commerce who cares if some antisocial underolled gto boring as can be kid who has tilt problems and pit problems can play better than him in 1/2 zoom on stars. who gives a ****? unless limon quits 10/20 plo at commernce to play zoom on stars it doesn't matter.

Look the poker world is filled with scumbags and frauds. Most of the guys on tv are complete frauds and /or thieves. Nobody tells you this stuff when you are trying to go pro chasing the "dream" (it was never a dream for me)
Nobody (well almost nobody) talks about all of the pit falls in poker, or shows the dark side of running like grim death. They show the sun runners that everything just goes perfect for. It's very misleading.People have a false idea of what it takes to make it in poker.

Do a lot of people make it as a pro? Of course not.
Some move on to bigger/better things. MANY crash and burn. Many smarter and way more hard working than me crash and burn.Because those things are overrated.

I play with lots of late 20s-mid 40s pros for decent stakes. The ones winning all of the money don't do #1-6. The ones who tilt, piss money away etc are playing baby stakes /quit poker. I see it and predict it all of the time and I'm almost always right when i think someone sucks/is on a heater/is going to crash and burn.A lot of the ones who have crashed and burned on their a game are way better than the pros who have been around forever-BUT ONLY ON THEIR A GAMES which they might only play 80 percent of the time. You can do a lot of damage in the other 20%. I don't care how you play when you're running well. How do you play when running bad? If you work harder than me but can't handle running bad I'm going to make more money than you. Now there are some wizards crushing way bigger games than i play. And you know what they are smarter and more hard working than me. But they also play their a games all of the time.

And you know what you talk about working harder than other people- harder at what? Because there is a ton of training material out there. It can give you really good fundamentals. But how much of it talks about the mental side of poker? How much of it talks about being fun at the table while removing money from the poker economy.Wow someone's 4 bet range is more balanaced than mine or some such horse ****. Who cares when the guys tilts his balls of when he runs bad for a week.

SO yes if i was smarter and more hard working I would make more money. But without doing basically the opposite of 1-6, if i was smarter and harder working but did those things i'd make a lot less or maybe have quit poker broke by now.

Last edited by borg23; 02-26-2019 at 02:13 PM.
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Old 02-26-2019, 02:21 PM   #6603
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

Quote:
Originally Posted by tooaggro View Post
Is this the game they do $100 bomb pots every new dealer or something of the sort?
There's quite a few games in LA that do that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by borg23 View Post
i've never said intelligence and hard work are as important as other people make them out to be. neither did limon. limon makes a lot more money than poker nerds smarter and harder working than him because he gets what it takes to make it in poker.

if someone is a really good funadamental player and super hard working but they

1)have bad money management skills
2)can't avoid the pit
3)have egos so they play in bad games
4)can't handle the swings well and always play their a game
5)play in bigger games than they can afford
6)aren't fun for the game
people don't want to give you action and you never get invited to great often rake free home games

they're not going to do that well in the long run.

I mean you can't be a complete moron or totally lazy, bad at poker and win.
But it's not that hard to play reasonably decent poker if you're halfway intelligent
if you do the total opposite of 1-6 and play decent poker you'll make way more money than someone a lot better than you at poker fundamentally but does all or most of 1-6.

it's like a baseball player who is similarly talented to the guys around him who outworks them all. but then he has zero plate disipline and chases everything. he won't do as well as the guy with a little less talent who works less hard who has a ton more disipline.

I've said it on here before people massively overrate the minutia of the exact ev of how to play hands on super close decisions when it means nothing either way, but then do lots of things that hurt their bottom line. tilting, playing underolled, pissing away lots of money on nonsense when running well etc.

I mean limon is a good example. I remember a while back people said he couldn't beat zoom nl on stars (or something like that ) at low stakes. What these people miss is he doesn't have to! He plays reasonably decent poker and does the things in poker, including cultivating good games and not tilting really well.If he's playing 10/20 plo at commerce who cares if some antisocial underolled gto boring as can be kid who has tilt problems and pit problems can play better than him in 1/2 zoom on stars. who gives a ****? unless limon quits 10/20 plo at commernce to play zoom on stars it doesn't matter.

Look the poker world is filled with scumbags and frauds. Most of the guys on tv are complete frauds and /or thieves. Nobody tells you this stuff when you are trying to go pro chasing the "dream" (it was never a dream for me)
Nobody (well almost nobody) talks about all of the pit falls in poker, or shows the dark side of running like grim death. They show the sun runners that everything just goes perfect for. It's very misleading.People have a false idea of what it takes to make it in poker.

Do a lot of people make it as a pro? Of course not.
Some move on to bigger/better things. MANY crash and burn. Many smarter and way more hard working than me crash and burn.Because those things are overrated.

I play with lots of late 20s-mid 40s pros for decent stakes. The ones winning all of the money don't do #1-6. The ones who tilt, piss money away etc are playing baby stakes /quit poker. I see it and predict it all of the time and I'm almost always right when i think someone sucks/is on a heater/is going to crash and burn.A lot of the ones who have crashed and burned on their a game are way better than the pros who have been around forever-BUT ONLY ON THEIR A GAMES which they might only play 80 percent of the time. You can do a lot of damage in the other 20%. I don't care how you play when you're running well. How do you play when running bad? If you work harder than me but can't handle running bad I'm going to make more money than you. Now there are some wizards crushing way bigger games than i play. And you know what they are smarter and more hard working than me. But they also play their a games all of the time.

And you know what you talk about working harder than other people- harder at what? Because there is a ton of training material out there. It can give you really good fundamentals. But how much of it talks about the mental side of poker? How much of it talks about being fun at the table while removing money from the poker economy.Wow someone's 4 bet range is more balanaced than mine or some such horse ****. Who cares when the guys tilts his balls of when he runs bad for a week.

SO yes if i was smarter and more hard working I would make more money. But without doing basically the opposite of 1-6, if i was smarter and harder working but did those things i'd make a lot less or maybe have quit poker broke by now.
This is a really good post. It's better to be the best player at a table of the 9 worst players in the world than the 9th best player in the world at a table with the 9 best players in the world.
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Old 02-26-2019, 02:51 PM   #6604
borg23
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

Quote:
Originally Posted by KatoKrazy View Post
There's quite a few games in LA that do that.



This is a really good post. It's better to be the best player at a table of the 9 worst players in the world than the 9th best player in the world at a table with the 9 best players in the world.
It's not just that. I think pretty much everyone on here would agree for the stakes the vast majority of people play it's really hard in 2019 to make 100 an hour especially in nl.

But you know what's really easy? Losing 1000 an hour when you're tilting.
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Old 02-26-2019, 03:22 PM   #6605
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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Originally Posted by atenesq View Post
It can be, and has been, stated enough. At some point you guys are just going to have to accept that you're indulging these toxic thoughts entirely voluntarily.

It's not that people who don't play poker for a living just don't get it. It's that you don't seem to.

Poker is not a special curse. It's training wheels. Your very own magical berry patch where the anecdotal experience of life's volatility takes place in a context where the variance can be measured and quantified and understood.

Reacting out of emotion when there are more appropriate tools in the toolbox is irrational and would tend to suggest that the problem isn't indigenous to running poorly. You know that. The solution is simply to be aware of it and try to do better. You know that too.

Based on the tone of this post, though, I kind of have to wonder how hard you're really trying.

Mental toughness isn't about your ability to endure things you don't have to. You can't control variance but you can control the effects it has on you. Easy peasy, but where your head is right now it's just words. Getting to a point where you are able to process it as actionable information is of course the rub.

If you figure that part out, let me know. It's the human condition. Guy goes to the doctor and says it hurts when I do this, doctor says stop doing it.

gl
Quote:
Originally Posted by borg23 View Post
i've never said intelligence and hard work are as important as other people make them out to be. neither did limon. limon makes a lot more money than poker nerds smarter and harder working than him because he gets what it takes to make it in poker.

if someone is a really good funadamental player and super hard working but they

1)have bad money management skills
2)can't avoid the pit
3)have egos so they play in bad games
4)can't handle the swings well and always play their a game
5)play in bigger games than they can afford
6)aren't fun for the game
people don't want to give you action and you never get invited to great often rake free home games

they're not going to do that well in the long run.

I mean you can't be a complete moron or totally lazy, bad at poker and win.
But it's not that hard to play reasonably decent poker if you're halfway intelligent
if you do the total opposite of 1-6 and play decent poker you'll make way more money than someone a lot better than you at poker fundamentally but does all or most of 1-6.

it's like a baseball player who is similarly talented to the guys around him who outworks them all. but then he has zero plate disipline and chases everything. he won't do as well as the guy with a little less talent who works less hard who has a ton more disipline.

I've said it on here before people massively overrate the minutia of the exact ev of how to play hands on super close decisions when it means nothing either way, but then do lots of things that hurt their bottom line. tilting, playing underolled, pissing away lots of money on nonsense when running well etc.

I mean limon is a good example. I remember a while back people said he couldn't beat zoom nl on stars (or something like that ) at low stakes. What these people miss is he doesn't have to! He plays reasonably decent poker and does the things in poker, including cultivating good games and not tilting really well.If he's playing 10/20 plo at commerce who cares if some antisocial underolled gto boring as can be kid who has tilt problems and pit problems can play better than him in 1/2 zoom on stars. who gives a ****? unless limon quits 10/20 plo at commernce to play zoom on stars it doesn't matter.

Look the poker world is filled with scumbags and frauds. Most of the guys on tv are complete frauds and /or thieves. Nobody tells you this stuff when you are trying to go pro chasing the "dream" (it was never a dream for me)
Nobody (well almost nobody) talks about all of the pit falls in poker, or shows the dark side of running like grim death. They show the sun runners that everything just goes perfect for. It's very misleading.People have a false idea of what it takes to make it in poker.

Do a lot of people make it as a pro? Of course not.
Some move on to bigger/better things. MANY crash and burn. Many smarter and way more hard working than me crash and burn.Because those things are overrated.

I play with lots of late 20s-mid 40s pros for decent stakes. The ones winning all of the money don't do #1-6. The ones who tilt, piss money away etc are playing baby stakes /quit poker. I see it and predict it all of the time and I'm almost always right when i think someone sucks/is on a heater/is going to crash and burn.A lot of the ones who have crashed and burned on their a game are way better than the pros who have been around forever-BUT ONLY ON THEIR A GAMES which they might only play 80 percent of the time. You can do a lot of damage in the other 20%. I don't care how you play when you're running well. How do you play when running bad? If you work harder than me but can't handle running bad I'm going to make more money than you. Now there are some wizards crushing way bigger games than i play. And you know what they are smarter and more hard working than me. But they also play their a games all of the time.

And you know what you talk about working harder than other people- harder at what? Because there is a ton of training material out there. It can give you really good fundamentals. But how much of it talks about the mental side of poker? How much of it talks about being fun at the table while removing money from the poker economy.Wow someone's 4 bet range is more balanaced than mine or some such horse ****. Who cares when the guys tilts his balls of when he runs bad for a week.

SO yes if i was smarter and more hard working I would make more money. But without doing basically the opposite of 1-6, if i was smarter and harder working but did those things i'd make a lot less or maybe have quit poker broke by now.
Man, big props to these 2 posts! Very well said both of you. Mindset/mental game is the most underrated aspect of poker by far. It's also the hardest, and therefore where the most edge still lies. It takes a lot more inner work than just trying not to tilt while playing. So many players think they have a pretty good mental game bc they don't go on monkey tilt and punt off stacks ever, when in reality there's countless other ways to tilt/not be playing your A-game than most are aware of.

Once you reach a certain skill level (albeit still a very high level), technical competence falls sharply down the totem poll in terms of importance to long term success as a pro.
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Old 02-26-2019, 03:32 PM   #6606
borg23
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

Quote:
Originally Posted by IntheNow View Post
Man, big props to these 2 posts! Very well said both of you. Mindset/mental game is the most underrated aspect of poker by far. It's also the hardest, and therefore where the most edge still lies. It takes a lot more inner work than just trying not to tilt while playing. So many players think they have a pretty good mental game bc they don't go on monkey tilt and punt off stacks ever, when in reality there's countless other ways to tilt/not be playing your A-game than most are aware of.

Once you reach a certain skill level (albeit still a very high level), technical competence falls sharply down the totem poll in terms of importance to long term success as a pro.
Thanks and you're right it's not just about monkey tilt.
Your game can drop off without going totally crazy.

I've learned over the years not to play tired or frustrated unless the game is absolutely incredible.I mean if people are straight up punting i can play on autopilot and be in a very +ev spot but otherwise it's time to call it a night. I often see guys playing super super long sessions in games that were good but aren't anymore and it's always because they're losing.So they aren't playing well, the burn themsleves out and they tend to miss good games the next few days bc of messed up sleep schedules and being in a bad place mentally. All hours of poker are not the same. You want to put in quality hours in good games when you're in the right mindset. You aren't punching a time clock.
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Old 02-26-2019, 03:43 PM   #6607
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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Originally Posted by atenesq View Post
You just have to look at it as an opportunity, which is not a matter of simply deciding to but requires work. There is a difference between 2.27% and 0%, and that's not only real but palpable to you in a way it will never be for most people. Coming to terms with it involves discomfort but ignorance isn't really bliss.
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Originally Posted by cannabusto View Post
It's hard when you're losing, but take joy in the fact that you get to see the beast unmasked while simultaneously understanding its power. So many people go through life not knowing how things really work. But you won't.
^ he said it right.
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Old 02-26-2019, 04:17 PM   #6608
IntheNow
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

To anyone saying it won't be possible to make a living in the near future from poker....can you be specific with how many years that will be the case and if talking about live/online? If for example you say 10 years, but have been saying the same thing for the last 4 years, can we agree it's only fair to say in 6 more years now?

Also since this is a gambling site, and it's obvious and agreed upon online's demise will be much sooner than live, therefore making a bet much easier, anyone want to throw out a number of years for online? I'd most likely be interested in a bet..
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Old 02-26-2019, 04:42 PM   #6609
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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Originally Posted by IntheNow View Post
To anyone saying it won't be possible to make a living in the near future from poker....can you be specific with how many years that will be the case and if talking about live/online? If for example you say 10 years, but have been saying the same thing for the last 4 years, can we agree it's only fair to say in 6 more years now?

Also since this is a gambling site, and it's obvious and agreed upon online's demise will be much sooner than live, therefore making a bet much easier, anyone want to throw out a number of years for online? I'd most likely be interested in a bet..
Instead of coming on here and trying to make a long term bet with a complete stranger, why don't you actually contribute to the conversation and give your thought process on why you think poker pros will be flourishing in the future?
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Old 02-26-2019, 04:54 PM   #6610
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

minimum tree fiddy for both
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Old 02-26-2019, 06:00 PM   #6611
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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Originally Posted by borg23 View Post
i've never said intelligence and hard work are as important as other people make them out to be. neither did limon. limon makes a lot more money than poker nerds smarter and harder working than him because he gets what it takes to make it in poker.

if someone is a really good funadamental player and super hard working but they

1)have bad money management skills
2)can't avoid the pit
3)have egos so they play in bad games
4)can't handle the swings well and always play their a game
5)play in bigger games than they can afford
6)aren't fun for the game
people don't want to give you action and you never get invited to great often rake free home games

they're not going to do that well in the long run.

I mean you can't be a complete moron or totally lazy, bad at poker and win.
But it's not that hard to play reasonably decent poker if you're halfway intelligent
if you do the total opposite of 1-6 and play decent poker you'll make way more money than someone a lot better than you at poker fundamentally but does all or most of 1-6.

it's like a baseball player who is similarly talented to the guys around him who outworks them all. but then he has zero plate disipline and chases everything. he won't do as well as the guy with a little less talent who works less hard who has a ton more disipline.

I've said it on here before people massively overrate the minutia of the exact ev of how to play hands on super close decisions when it means nothing either way, but then do lots of things that hurt their bottom line. tilting, playing underolled, pissing away lots of money on nonsense when running well etc.

I mean limon is a good example. I remember a while back people said he couldn't beat zoom nl on stars (or something like that ) at low stakes. What these people miss is he doesn't have to! He plays reasonably decent poker and does the things in poker, including cultivating good games and not tilting really well.If he's playing 10/20 plo at commerce who cares if some antisocial underolled gto boring as can be kid who has tilt problems and pit problems can play better than him in 1/2 zoom on stars. who gives a ****? unless limon quits 10/20 plo at commernce to play zoom on stars it doesn't matter.

Look the poker world is filled with scumbags and frauds. Most of the guys on tv are complete frauds and /or thieves. Nobody tells you this stuff when you are trying to go pro chasing the "dream" (it was never a dream for me)
Nobody (well almost nobody) talks about all of the pit falls in poker, or shows the dark side of running like grim death. They show the sun runners that everything just goes perfect for. It's very misleading.People have a false idea of what it takes to make it in poker.

Do a lot of people make it as a pro? Of course not.
Some move on to bigger/better things. MANY crash and burn. Many smarter and way more hard working than me crash and burn.Because those things are overrated.

I play with lots of late 20s-mid 40s pros for decent stakes. The ones winning all of the money don't do #1-6. The ones who tilt, piss money away etc are playing baby stakes /quit poker. I see it and predict it all of the time and I'm almost always right when i think someone sucks/is on a heater/is going to crash and burn.A lot of the ones who have crashed and burned on their a game are way better than the pros who have been around forever-BUT ONLY ON THEIR A GAMES which they might only play 80 percent of the time. You can do a lot of damage in the other 20%. I don't care how you play when you're running well. How do you play when running bad? If you work harder than me but can't handle running bad I'm going to make more money than you. Now there are some wizards crushing way bigger games than i play. And you know what they are smarter and more hard working than me. But they also play their a games all of the time.

And you know what you talk about working harder than other people- harder at what? Because there is a ton of training material out there. It can give you really good fundamentals. But how much of it talks about the mental side of poker? How much of it talks about being fun at the table while removing money from the poker economy.Wow someone's 4 bet range is more balanaced than mine or some such horse ****. Who cares when the guys tilts his balls of when he runs bad for a week.

SO yes if i was smarter and more hard working I would make more money. But without doing basically the opposite of 1-6, if i was smarter and harder working but did those things i'd make a lot less or maybe have quit poker broke by now.
Being hardworking/intelligent/ will power alone will not make you successful at poker. It simply increases your odds. The exact thing can be said for your 6 guidelines. It doesn’t guarantee success but it certainly increases your odds. If the following above did produce quantifiable, consistently high outcomes over long periods of time, then there would be many more people making a solid living/ high win rate in poker than there currently are today.

It leads to think variance plays a much bigger role than what we care to admit. The reason Pro A is only making $1/per hand dealt and you’re making $4/ per hand dealt has little to do with intelligence and work ethic or your 6 guidelines and everything to do with how well they’re running lifetime. Tyman could theoretically grind out 100k hand months and be out of his rut in no time (gl btw). In live poker, what you receive is what you get. There is no grinding out the long run in live poker. It’s also a reason why so many regs treat each hand as life/death.

The fact is that all the knowledge, discipline, your 6 guidelines etc still translates into very little control over your live poker hourly. That’s exactly why so few people are still going strong 10+ years later. It’s a seemingly random anomaly and not the norm we desperately want to believe.
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Old 02-26-2019, 06:22 PM   #6612
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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Originally Posted by upswinging View Post
Being hardworking/intelligent/ will power alone will not make you successful at poker. It simply increases your odds. The exact thing can be said for your 6 guidelines. It doesn’t guarantee success but it certainly increases your odds. If the following above did produce quantifiable, consistently high outcomes over long periods of time, then there would be many more people making a solid living/ high win rate in poker than there currently are today.

It leads to think variance plays a much bigger role than what we care to admit. The reason Pro A is only making $1/per hand dealt and you’re making $4/ per hand dealt has little to do with intelligence and work ethic or your 6 guidelines and everything to do with how well they’re running lifetime. Tyman could theoretically grind out 100k hand months and be out of his rut in no time (gl btw). In live poker, what you receive is what you get. There is no grinding out the long run in live poker. It’s also a reason why so many regs treat each hand as life/death.

The fact is that all the knowledge, discipline, your 6 guidelines etc still translates into very little control over your live poker hourly. That’s exactly why so few people are still going strong 10+ years later. It’s a seemingly random anomaly and not the norm we desperately want to believe.
There is going to be a huge disparity in results but if you are good and have a high winrate it's not like you are likely to lose over a years time if you put in a solid amount of hours. So yes you may have the exact same skills as someone else in your games and play the exact same hours and one of you wins $40/hr and one of you wins $100/hr. That's just a variable you have to account for and you have to weigh into the choices you make. Being more knowledgeable and making smarter choices still plays a significant effect on your ev hourly. The reason so few people are going strong 10+ years later is because they make terrible choices and have bad soft skills. They tilt when running poorly, they play without a proper bankroll, they spend like their ev is $100/hr when their ev is actually $35/hr. Same reasons a ton of small businesses fail that otherwise have a decent concept and have potential to succeed.
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Old 02-26-2019, 09:02 PM   #6613
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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Originally Posted by TheTyman9 View Post
There is going to be a huge disparity in results but if you are good and have a high winrate it's not like you are likely to lose over a years time if you put in a solid amount of hours. So yes you may have the exact same skills as someone else in your games and play the exact same hours and one of you wins $40/hr and one of you wins $100/hr. That's just a variable you have to account for and you have to weigh into the choices you make. Being more knowledgeable and making smarter choices still plays a significant effect on your ev hourly. The reason so few people are going strong 10+ years later is because they make terrible choices and have bad soft skills. They tilt when running poorly, they play without a proper bankroll, they spend like their ev is $100/hr when their ev is actually $35/hr. Same reasons a ton of small businesses fail that otherwise have a decent concept and have potential to succeed.
Your viewpoint could have merit, however you’re failing to account for the vast, untold millions of Americans who gave poker a serious shot (however brief, much like DGAF, limon etc in their beginnings). Who stopped playing poker altogether well before the 10 year mark. Where are they accounted for in these hourly ev winrates that keep floating around?

Believing that the few 10+ year live dinosaurs bested 99.999% of all serious players who attempted live poker based on their merit alone says more about the size of a persons ego than it does reflect the reality of professional poker win rates or its viability as a “career” moving forward. The poker community tends to ignore/ dismiss all negative or mediocre results and data as user error and not related to the variance that’s built into the game itself.
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Old 02-26-2019, 09:45 PM   #6614
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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Your viewpoint could have merit, however you’re failing to account for the vast, untold millions of Americans who gave poker a serious shot (however brief, much like DGAF, limon etc in their beginnings). Who stopped playing poker altogether well before the 10 year mark. Where are they accounted for in these hourly ev winrates that keep floating around?

Believing that the few 10+ year live dinosaurs bested 99.999% of all serious players who attempted live poker based on their merit alone says more about the size of a persons ego than it does reflect the reality of professional poker win rates or its viability as a “career” moving forward. The poker community tends to ignore/ dismiss all negative or mediocre results and data as user error and not related to the variance that’s built into the game itself.
What do you mean by serious shot? Because the vast majority of people don't actually put in any work to get better at poker and are not very good as a result. All these people you are talking about who fell off didn't have a high winrate in their games (or in the case of most people, didn't even have a positive winrate). I also don't really get what your point is. You think that people who have beaten the games for a good winrate over a decade are just the lucky chosen small % of massive massive sunrunners? A really small % of people being able to succeed at something over a long period of time does not make those people just a product of luck. Yes luck and variance plays a part but a person who has done well for a decade just has better technical skills and soft skills at the game of poker than most people do.

Whether poker is viable as a career or not comes down to so many different factors and there will be very different aspects to weigh for each individual person's situation. You can't just make sweeping generalizations about what the right decision is. Everyone has already agreed that poker is not a good choice of profession for the vast majority of people. At this point I honestly have no clue about what your agenda is. You come across as someone who needs an excuse for poor results. If that's not it, then why are you so angry about the fact that some people can make decent money from poker. If someone has poor results over a large enough period of time it's not just due to variance. And the amount of sample size that is needed depends greatly on the game type. If you are losing at live cash poker over 2000+ hours than you are statistically extremely probable to be a losing player. If you have an 8bb/hr winrate at live cash poker over 2000+ hours then you don't necessarily have an 8bb/hr winrate, but you are statistically extremely likely to have a solid winrate in the games. If you just play one year of full time live big field tournaments than your results over that sample mean very little because variance is amplified.

Spend 15 minutes with a variance calculator and the data will be right in front of you to show how unlikely it is that a small handful of people are putting up positive results over a decade due to luck.
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Old 02-26-2019, 10:44 PM   #6615
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

yea, i think poker is probably a -10k to +20k/year side hustle for me. I think what SCC-RY and I are getting at is that the ****ty depressing feelings that you get from playing poker during downswings/breakeven stretches isn't worth the upside. If we can't compartmentalize poker, and it sounds like a lot of people can't, then it may not be worth it at all. Poker downswings can drain the energy out of other parts of your life and that is very -EV because there's cost outside of the dollars lost or time sunk.

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Old 02-27-2019, 12:00 AM   #6616
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

Just finished the recent releases of Sessions ; I think I speak for everyone when I say
Spoiler:


That pic of the pig is epic
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Old 02-27-2019, 12:44 AM   #6617
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

When I saw the “Game over” title, it was a stomach punch.

Come on!
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Old 02-27-2019, 06:20 AM   #6618
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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Originally Posted by cannabusto View Post

I do believe a lot of the pain comes from how tangible poker variance is.
A large part of the variance pain comes from how un"natural" it is. Evolution has wired our brains to learn from the outcomes of our actions creating virtuous (vicious) feedback loops -- good (bad) actions leading to positive (negative) results rewarding (punishing) the decisions behind the actions.

We cannot naturally decouple our actions from their outcomes. This detachment is so unnatural that Bhagavad Geeta (ancient Hindu religious text) had to make this principle -- "Karmanyaba Adhikarasthe, ma phallesu kadachano" (You only have rights to your actions, not to your results) -- the core of its teachings. Combating millions of years of natural selection is not easy for humans.

Poker not only requires this detachment, it confuses the hell out of the feedback loops in your brain when you are in the abyss as right actions constantly produce wrong results for you and wrong actions produce right results for others. The fast pace and volume of online mitigate the impact of this confusion on our mental health to some extent. We can rationalize perverse outcomes as "just variance" for a session, or a few, perhaps even a month. But in live, this could go on for months, or even years, with long periods in between sessions when you are alone introspecting. Very very very few human brains can survive this experience over a typical career-spanning duration (20-30 years) when poker income is their livelihood without becoming a degen / nit / mad.

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Old 02-27-2019, 07:18 AM   #6619
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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Originally Posted by callingstation44 View Post
A large part of the variance pain comes from how un"natural" it is. Evolution has wired our brains to learn from the outcomes of our actions creating virtuous (vicious) feedback loops -- good (bad) actions leading to positive (negative) results rewarding (punishing) the decisions behind the actions.

We cannot naturally decouple our actions from their outcomes. This detachment is so unnatural that Bhagavad Geeta (ancient Hindu religious text) had to make this principle -- "Karmanyaba Adhikarasthe, ma phallesu kadachano" (You only have rights to your actions, not to your results) -- the core of its teachings. Combating millions of years of natural selection is not easy for humans.

Poker not only requires this detachment, it confuses the hell out of the feedback loops in your brain when you are in the abyss as right actions constantly produce wrong results for you and wrong actions produce right results for others. The fast pace and volume of online mitigate the impact of this confusion on our mental health to some extent. We can rationalize perverse outcomes as "just variance" for a session, or a few, perhaps even a month. But in live, this could go on for months, or even years, with long periods in between sessions when you are alone introspecting. Very very very few human brains can survive this experience over a typical career-spanning duration (20-30 years) when poker income is their livelihood without becoming a degen / nit / mad.
I'm gonna go back to my catatonic, holding a can of ginger ale and just gazing at the blank wall above my laptop in the middle of the night phase in just a second (cuz I'm in the abyss and that's the healthiest reaction I can come up with rn), but wow, what a ****ing amazing post. I know it will be skipped over by those blinded by the dream/run good, but I will have it somewhere in the front of my mind forever.

Much appreciated.

Carry on, guys, this thread is humming again...

@tyman, I'm digging your posts a lot but would almost certainly question whatever formula you are using to calculate variance in live poker. I think ~ 100% of the very few that earn for 10 years run above expectation...

Spoiler:


And the vast majority wear Nike Air Sun Runners.

--

Example of how volatile this **** can be:

You get in the juicy, once every few years game that gets kicked way up and one guy is lighting a fortune on fire. You run good and your roll balloons, all the financial stress goes away (for a while), you can play other big games, you have energy and motivation to be healthy and work on your game and put in hours, your decision-making is at its peak potential (for a while)...

Or you get all in with a set vs a flush draw vs that whale, lose, and you spend the next several months just trying to rebuild your roll to get it back to where it was before that session, your confidence (in the cards at least) shrinks, you need to decompress, you start to lose motivation, your decision making suffers quite a bit, etc.

Ok back to the wall now..
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Old 02-27-2019, 08:43 AM   #6620
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

Quote:
Originally Posted by pewpewrobot View Post
yea, i think poker is probably a -10k to +20k/year side hustle for me. I think what SCC-RY and I are getting at is that the ****ty depressing feelings that you get from playing poker during downswings/breakeven stretches isn't worth the upside. If we can't compartmentalize poker, and it sounds like a lot of people can't, then it may not be worth it at all. Poker downswings can drain the energy out of other parts of your life and that is very -EV because there's cost outside of the dollars lost or time sunk.
I wouldn't dream of putting up with poker's variance and its impact on my quality of life for -10k to +20k/yr. I would actively look for other things to do with my time. Seriously. The games will be better when roughly break-even players drop out and the player pool becomes more steeply bi-modally distributed. Maybe we just need to raise the rake for a bit
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Old 02-27-2019, 09:11 AM   #6621
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

Callingstation,

I agree, great post. I just want to add that science tells us neuroplasticity is real and I'm unaware of anything that allows us to change our brains more effectively than does meditation. It is unnatural to detach from outcomes. But we can change the way our brain is wired and the effort is likely worth it for poker pros.
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Old 02-27-2019, 10:28 AM   #6622
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

Quote:
Originally Posted by callingstation44 View Post
Very very very few human brains can survive this experience over a typical career-spanning duration (20-30 years)
Yes Yes Yes. So you're a poker player and think about the future. What's the end game? The best case scenario? The worst? Is the best case scenario so unbelievably good that you must continue? Is the worst case scenario not as bad as you think? Or is it so bad that it cancels out the value of the best case scenario? My conclusion that the possibility of running bottom 5% from here on out would be far too devastating to handle. Even just running bottom 50% would be awful because you are still going to have long stretches of pain and misery. Yes you could employ every tactic in the book in order to trick yourself into being less miserable(diet, sleep, exercise, meditation, education on the topic, etc). But then that's a whole bunch MORE work for what? I think just money. And you get to call yourself a good poker player. Even winning the main event or running it up enough to play in Bobby's Room just doesn't seem like enough to justify the worst case scenario.

If I was to play Devil's advocate, I think the most attractive aspect of playing poker is freedom. But again what's the end game? People will often justify working in a super high stress, high income job by saying they can earn enough to do what they want later in life or retire early? But why not just start doing what you want right now? Let's say you are fortunate enough to run it up in poker over say a 5-10 year span. Now you have bought your freedom, but you have also lost 5-10 years that you could have been working at something more meaningful to you or even just figuring out what that is. Plus there is zero guarantee you will run it up at all. Only a small % succeed anyway. And this is for the masses, not the outliers.

I understand the reason people don't get out of poker is the same as why other people don't get out of their jobs. You are used to a certain income and you have family obligations or whatever. That's fine. But if you don't have those things going on I think its better to start exploring other options sooner rather than later
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Old 02-27-2019, 12:26 PM   #6623
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

Money is the reason most people do what they do. I really do enjoy data analysis, which is how I earn a living. But, given the choice, I would prefer not to have a job.

There is no meaning out in this world either. Not much anyway. I get to earn good money and call myself a quality data professional? So what?

Plenty of variance in the real world too. Many jobs will get automated and the young can't always tell which those will be. Live poker players obviously won't get automated out of existence.

I don't entirely disagree with your points, SSC. Just sayin
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Old 02-27-2019, 01:57 PM   #6624
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

Quote:
Originally Posted by callingstation44 View Post
A large part of the variance pain comes from how un"natural" it is. Evolution has wired our brains to learn from the outcomes of our actions creating virtuous (vicious) feedback loops -- good (bad) actions leading to positive (negative) results rewarding (punishing) the decisions behind the actions.

We cannot naturally decouple our actions from their outcomes. This detachment is so unnatural that Bhagavad Geeta (ancient Hindu religious text) had to make this principle -- "Karmanyaba Adhikarasthe, ma phallesu kadachano" (You only have rights to your actions, not to your results) -- the core of its teachings. Combating millions of years of natural selection is not easy for humans.

Poker not only requires this detachment, it confuses the hell out of the feedback loops in your brain when you are in the abyss as right actions constantly produce wrong results for you and wrong actions produce right results for others. The fast pace and volume of online mitigate the impact of this confusion on our mental health to some extent. We can rationalize perverse outcomes as "just variance" for a session, or a few, perhaps even a month. But in live, this could go on for months, or even years, with long periods in between sessions when you are alone introspecting. Very very very few human brains can survive this experience over a typical career-spanning duration (20-30 years) when poker income is their livelihood without becoming a degen / nit / mad.
This is a really great post.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DGAF View Post
I'm gonna go back to my catatonic, holding a can of ginger ale and just gazing at the blank wall above my laptop in the middle of the night phase in just a second (cuz I'm in the abyss and that's the healthiest reaction I can come up with rn), but wow, what a ****ing amazing post. I know it will be skipped over by those blinded by the dream/run good, but I will have it somewhere in the front of my mind forever.

Much appreciated.

Carry on, guys, this thread is humming again...

@tyman, I'm digging your posts a lot but would almost certainly question whatever formula you are using to calculate variance in live poker. I think ~ 100% of the very few that earn for 10 years run above expectation...

Spoiler:


And the vast majority wear Nike Air Sun Runners.

--

Example of how volatile this **** can be:

You get in the juicy, once every few years game that gets kicked way up and one guy is lighting a fortune on fire. You run good and your roll balloons, all the financial stress goes away (for a while), you can play other big games, you have energy and motivation to be healthy and work on your game and put in hours, your decision-making is at its peak potential (for a while)...

Or you get all in with a set vs a flush draw vs that whale, lose, and you spend the next several months just trying to rebuild your roll to get it back to where it was before that session, your confidence (in the cards at least) shrinks, you need to decompress, you start to lose motivation, your decision making suffers quite a bit, etc.

Ok back to the wall now..
It's just an online variance calculator. They aren't completely accurate because they won't account for the human element of playing worse when running bad, but it should be close enough if you are using honest numbers in your inputs for a long term winrate. Even if you set the winrate pretty low even the unluckiest players result is going to be a very positive one after that kind of sample.

"I think ~ 100% of the very few that earn for 10 years run above expectation..."

This may be true I have no clue. But I don't think it's very important tbh. Every player over 10 years is extremely likely to have some death run, soul crushing downswings in their sample. So no matter who you are if you made it 10 years you will have had some very trying times that you will have battled through. However, I think what you are saying about running above expectation is very meaningful when we are talking about the beginning of peoples poker careers. You've def touched on this before I believe, but basically there are definitely people out there who had potential to succeed over 10 years who never got the chance because they ran so poorly right at the start of them playing that they gave up before they had a real understanding of the role variance plays. Likely ~100% of the ones that do well over 10 years were lucky enough to run at least decently well at the beginning to the point that they were able to build up some success and learned a bit about variance which allowed them to battle through when the first tough downswing hits them. So basically being on the right side of variance is extremely important at the beginning.

Just to be clear though, variance is still a huge factor in peoples results even over these 10 years samples. Even with a large winrate you could easily have two players with the exact same ev winrate who's profit differs by 300+ buyins. My point was just that no one just luckboxed their way into making a good amount of money at live cash poker over 10 years of consistent volume. If they won a decent amount over that sample they are clearly a long term winner. We just can't know if their true winrate is 3bb/hr or 10bb/hr because of the variance in results.
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Old 02-27-2019, 02:34 PM   #6625
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

Quote:
Originally Posted by SSC-Ry View Post
Instead of coming on here and trying to make a long term bet with a complete stranger, why don't you actually contribute to the conversation and give your thought process on why you think poker pros will be flourishing in the future?
Ok you got me, I'll waste a little time.....Tyman and I (both still making a living 10+yrs from poker) have an intelligent back and forth about it over in my PGC a month or so ago. I tried to get him to bet with me there too btw....unsuccessfully .

But the gist of my view is poker players have been screaming from the mountain tops online poker is dead/dying for over a decade now, yet it's still humming along. There's been UIGEA, black friday, GTO around 2014, Solvers around 2016/17, seat scripts, bot rings, large rake increases.....yet here we are in 2019 and it's still very possible to make a good living playing soley online poker.

Humans are evolutionary hard wired to be pessimistic. So generally we see trends/recent events and don't accurately account for the fact that markets adapt. I could give plenty of examples from other industries here, but for sake of time I'll just leave it at that. We have seen the poker market adapt (no seat/game selection, anonymous tables, private apps/chinese apps, etc etc.) and it will continue to.

Notice I'm only talking about online above. I'm not even going to address your assertion that being a poker pro at all won't be a thing anymore in 10 years, or your 2 reasons given. Would still love to hear any specific predictions from anyone on when it'll no longer be possible for online or live...think it would at least be interesting since never seen anyone do that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheTyman9 View Post
What do you mean by serious shot? Because the vast majority of people don't actually put in any work to get better at poker and are not very good as a result. All these people you are talking about who fell off didn't have a high winrate in their games (or in the case of most people, didn't even have a positive winrate). I also don't really get what your point is. You think that people who have beaten the games for a good winrate over a decade are just the lucky chosen small % of massive massive sunrunners? A really small % of people being able to succeed at something over a long period of time does not make those people just a product of luck. Yes luck and variance plays a part but a person who has done well for a decade just has better technical skills and soft skills at the game of poker than most people do.

Whether poker is viable as a career or not comes down to so many different factors and there will be very different aspects to weigh for each individual person's situation. You can't just make sweeping generalizations about what the right decision is. Everyone has already agreed that poker is not a good choice of profession for the vast majority of people. At this point I honestly have no clue about what your agenda is. You come across as someone who needs an excuse for poor results. If that's not it, then why are you so angry about the fact that some people can make decent money from poker. If someone has poor results over a large enough period of time it's not just due to variance. And the amount of sample size that is needed depends greatly on the game type. If you are losing at live cash poker over 2000+ hours than you are statistically extremely probable to be a losing player. If you have an 8bb/hr winrate at live cash poker over 2000+ hours then you don't necessarily have an 8bb/hr winrate, but you are statistically extremely likely to have a solid winrate in the games. If you just play one year of full time live big field tournaments than your results over that sample mean very little because variance is amplified.

Spend 15 minutes with a variance calculator and the data will be right in front of you to show how unlikely it is that a small handful of people are putting up positive results over a decade due to luck.
Very good last couple responses to this guy. It's of course obvious to most that although he usually has some truth/correct points sprinkled in, he has zero interest in a nuanced, intelligent, and non-biased discussion of reality on anything related to poker as a profession. Since it's clear he has an agenda, best to just ignore in future imo.

Quote:
Originally Posted by pewpewrobot View Post
yea, i think poker is probably a -10k to +20k/year side hustle for me. I think what SCC-RY and I are getting at is that the ****ty depressing feelings that you get from playing poker during downswings/breakeven stretches isn't worth the upside. If we can't compartmentalize poker, and it sounds like a lot of people can't, then it may not be worth it at all. Poker downswings can drain the energy out of other parts of your life and that is very -EV because there's cost outside of the dollars lost or time sunk.
If you are only making like $10/hr and it's affecting your life negatively then obviously it's not the right side hustle for you. SSC-RY refers to his last 100hr stretch of losing less than a buyin as a downswing that's been tough to deal with. Poker clearly isn't a good side gig for him/someone with that mentality either imo, and that's fine/good.

I think it would be really hard to argue poker isn't a great side gig for some though. But you need to be willing to work at it, willing to invest in your skills through coaching/training, have the right mindset, and most importantly not only really like playing, but enjoy the entire process that it takes to become a significant long term winning player. If you can get to that point, I seriously can't think of a better side hustle out there. And there are definitely people doing it online and live. I'd like to eventually be one of them when I'm done playing full time. I agree with so many others that poker as a side gig is the best move for the vast majority of pros or aspiring pros.
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