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Old 02-25-2019, 05:31 PM   #6576
TheTyman9
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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Originally Posted by DGAF View Post
This has the potential to be a great discussion (if done right) that many could benefit from imo. Poker wears on a man (or woman) over time. In a world (I'm speaking of the poker world) where you only hear from new pros on heaters or outlier sun runners (or people selling a dream they know is BS), Sean and I (and some others obv) paint the picture of what it's really like to be a poker pro (at least for us) once the honeymoon is over.

I am currently in the abyss (wait until I drop the latest episodes). Each session I legit have the feeling inside to break something. I know it's irrational and unhealthy. It's an internal battle I have every session it seems. I'm sober when I play now so I don't think others can see it usually (my strong side always wins when I'm sober), but it's there.

I write and talk about this **** whenever I can. I believe I have achieved full insight because of that. I admittedly though am struggling greatly to not let the idea of variance constantly getting in the way of me coming up (you know, not being homeless anymore) drive me mad.

I believe Sean is in the same boat but a little behind me because he's younger and doesn't write and pod all the time.

Either way, we need to learn to handle it better or GTFO. I agree with that 100%.

But how?

Please acknowledge that it's a lot harder than just "accept variance". Having bad luck and being surrounded by good luck for extended periods of time is just tough, not even adding the other variables I have weighing on me (debt, alimony, child support, homeless, etc).
For sure it's not as easy as "accept variance". We are all human and are going to feel emotions about things. And we also all have different natural dispositions so we won't always all respond to the same variance the same way. All that being said, don't you think that a lot of the stress that comes with poker and variance has been made 100x more stressful due to your decisions on how to handle the bankroll management/life expense aspect of things. I mean the fact that you and Sean have had sustained success in this game despite such aggressive bankroll choices is super impressive and speaks to how much talent you guys have at the game of poker. If you guys consistently played within your bankroll and kept life expenses manageable (obv you can't reverse past choices and it seems like you are trying to make changes on this front which is great) I think you guys would both be set for life from poker and bad runs wouldn't be anywhere near the stressful/abyss feelings they have been. I understand it's tempting/fun to play big and keep some gamble in the game, but when it's your sole source of income that's a big part of why every short term result feels so life/death.
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Old 02-25-2019, 06:05 PM   #6577
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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Originally Posted by DGAF View Post
Please acknowledge that it's a lot harder than just "accept variance".
I've acknowledged that and I hereby acknowledge it again. It's hard. It's so hard. There is a chasm of a million miles between the initial intellectual acceptance of the concept that this is something you can control and genuinely believing it to the point where you can carry it into practical effect.

These are the tricks our brains play on us. You're like a kid standing frozen at the end of the diving board. It's not because you're afraid of the water, it's because you forgot how to jump.

limon says that variance has no effect on him because he is properly bankrolled for his games. It has a significant effect on you and you aren't. While circumstances compel you to proceed in the face of this, it nevertheless might be (or might not be, because just to be perfectly clear here what the hell do I know) helpful to recognize the issue for the simple thing that it is rather than projecting it onto this construct of the cumulative effect of awareness of variance over time as this singular tragedy by which you are uniquely afflicted. Even if that were true it's not a real productive way of thinking about it.

It's like the first time you get your heart broken. Which goes the same way for everybody. Somehow your mind manages to convince itself that this is the worst thing that has happened in the history of ever and nobody could possibly understand.
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Old 02-25-2019, 06:53 PM   #6578
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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Based on the tone of this post, though, I kind of have to wonder how hard you're really trying.

Mental toughness isn't about your ability to endure things you don't have to. You can't control variance but you can control the effects it has on you. Easy peasy, but where your head is right now it's just words. Getting to a point where you are able to process it as actionable information is of course the rub.

If you figure that part out, let me know. It's the human condition. Guy goes to the doctor and says it hurts when I do this, doctor says stop doing it.

gl
Thanks for the post. First off I just wanna be clear that I'm not saying that I am in a constant apoplectic state or moaning endlessly when I'm out with friends. It's more that when things are going poorly, I am significantly more likely to just stay home and stare at screens doing XYZ activity than go out with friends. Thankfully my friends are persistent and often give me some tough love with similar things to what you've just said that get me out of the house and once I'm outside, I am a normal fun person. Well, not necessarily normal. But I am the normal version of me.

As you know, it's not as simple as flipping a light switch, but getting better at dealing with poker life is something I constantly work on. Have gone to a therapist with my request basically being "This is how my life has been for 15 years. It is often stressful and frustrating but choosing a different life is a poor financial decision. Please help me be better at dealing with it". And like I said, I am often unnecessarily hard on myself. It can be great improving at poker and maximizing your EV. It can also be really bad for me mentally.

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we had a few drinks together. at one point he said to me "you're a nit but at least you're a fun nit.that's fine i get it you're trying to win. why are all of the hold em nits so miserable?"

something to thing about for everyone.
Congrats on that win. Have had guys make similar comments to me and it makes me feel like I'm doing my job right. People really don't care if you are a nit. They notice, but they care a lot more if you just suck to play with. The nice thing about pretty much every variant except no ante NLHE is that you actually have to gamble to win.

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This has the potential to be a great discussion (if done right) that many could benefit from imo. Poker wears on a man (or woman) over time. In a world (I'm speaking of the poker world) where you only hear from new pros on heaters or outlier sun runners (or people selling a dream they know is BS), Sean and I (and some others obv) paint the picture of what it's really like to be a poker pro (at least for us) once the honeymoon is over.
So going off what @atenesq said, I think one of our biggest weaknesses is (correct me if I'm putting words in your mouth) how frustrating it is to be the guy at the table doing all the right things in terms of both fundamental poker and gamesmanship while the deck bends you over for hundreds (thousands) of hours, as you watch the revolving door of new mute pros come in and just have AA half a dozen times a session, stack QQ-KK half those times (and their QQ-KK are never up against KK+ and always hold for big pots), flop sets and stack QQ+, etc. But how ****ing dumb is it that it bothers us, when it has absolutely nothing to do with us? Pretty dumb. But after thousands of (successful) hours, it honestly becomes hard not to notice and resent that if you are grinding out 10k a month pouring your blood, sweat and tears into the game, it gets ****ing exhausting to watch the same guy flop 3 sets and get action when he never gives an ounce in return win 15k a month. It's also not healthy to experience the amount of schadenfreude that I do (and perhaps you do) when he finally runs a KK into AA and loses and then he gets set over set and then he lets everyone know how bad he's running and suddenly he's gone and someone new has to take his place.

It actually sounded even more unhealthy to think about when I typed it than when I thought about thinking about it.

I don't really think it's realistic to eliminate all negative thoughts when it comes to poker results, but focusing on the results of others both independently of and relative to our own is definitely not healthy. It's not that it has nothing to do with us, as them pulling money from the game does cost us money, but it is absolutely something which we have no control over and something that shouldn't take up any of our mental energy dwelling over. And I think it's definitely something that has contributed to us being worn down.


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Imo this is mostly mindset based though and also how you choose to go about things in life in general. I've been a pro for essentially a decade so I've had plenty of really frustrating times and swings. Hell right now I'm in the midst of an ~30 buyin downswing where for the last 2-3 weeks I'm basically getting beaten down with AK/QQ+ scarily consistently. But none of this ever makes me want to treat the people around me poorly or mope around. It's not fun and it's obviously frustrating, but it doesn't make me not happy in my day to day life or to be able to enjoy time with my friends. Just wanna be clear no judgement here, I understand people are different and handle their emotions differently. But for you specifically just based on the little I know about you from this thread, it seems like a lot of these intense feelings are more due to not playing with proper bankroll considerations no? I can imagine that makes day to day life way more stressful and imo just isn't sustainable. It's a big part of why so many poker pros flame out and can't have sustained success.
Thanks. So you've brought up a psychological issue which I've mentioned on DGAF's pod I think. Maybe others are different, maybe others are similar. But for me, I can take a beating worse than you've ever seen over a short period of time. A couple weeks or even a couple months of poor results really won't bother me at all as long as it's surrounded by business as usual. For me it gets the worst when we get into the 3+ month territory, even if the result is not particularly poor. My losing year in 2018 wasn't for an even remotely large number (I have won more than that in each of my last 3 real stakes sessions this month), it is more that it just becomes so mentally exhausting to know that you have a task that you must do and that the result of the past 500 or whatever hours of trials is so very different from the result of the past over 20,000 hours worth of trials. Again, something that is completely in my head. However, what is not in my head over a 12 month break essentially break even flip flop around year vs a short few weeks of taking a beating is that after the couple weeks of losing, I still have the rest of the year (arbitrary but not really because taxes exist) to actually make money. The end result of my 2018 was pretty catastrophic financially, not because I lost a few dollars in poker, but because I failed to make money in poker while the rest of life continued. Cash purchases of a new (very modest) car, landscaping my yard, new flooring and painting my house, finally having my wisdom teeth removed (dental insurance is a scam don't pay for it) in my 30s, finally replacing my ****ty old furniture, bills and regular cash spending in socal amounts to a very large number. Nothing especially frivolous, just regular spending and then a bunch of necessary/inevitable 1 time purchases following a pretty good year of poker, when at the time of most of these purchases, I had no reason to believe I wouldn't have another good year of poker.

Sorry I rambled a bit there but the tldr of it is that it's not really the short term or even necessarily the long term poker results that bother me. It's the long term financial result where basically putting myself a year or more behind "the plan" ****s with my head. Definitely partially a psychological thing since in reality it had essentially no impact on the games I am able to play.

As far as the bankroll thing, I'm not really sure where the misconception is coming from that I am regularly playing underrolled since it's been mentioned a few times now. Maybe it's because based on my posts it seems that one day I am playing like 5/5 pot limit and the next it is 50/100 or something (which actually happens very often)? That's simply because those are just the games I have access to. I play the smaller games because sometimes that's all there is and because the smaller stakes games I play are mostly super fun and social. I don't really want to get into how much I think a person should have for whatever games I'm playing, but I will say that by pretty much any conventional modern bankroll standards, I am somewhere between very well rolled to massively overrolled for any game I play. I am possibly the biggest bankroll nit I know. I learned a very important lesson in 2012 when I cash busted myself and it's not something I have any interest in allowing to happen again. I was also lucky to run good at the beginning of playing most the bigger games I've played regularly as well as benefiting a decent amount from crypto (all of which will be gone and then some come taxes this year, and part of my mental stress has been knowing that money will be disappearing soon while I fail to bring in more money). Even so, I still sell pieces occasionally for certain games just because I don't want to expose myself to an extraordinarily large loss relative to what I've normally been playing if I won't have a chance to play that game regularly.
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Old 02-25-2019, 07:15 PM   #6579
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

For me, I don't see a lot of value in poker going forward. It's not that I'm running particularly bad or having terrible results, I just don't believe there's much upside for me. The games are not fun. Fewer interesting entrepreneurs & business people are playing.

Losing money I needed, day after day in games I think I should beat, having to interact with the sunrunners, would absolutely gnaw at my insides.

DGAF, have you considered taking your formidable people skills along with your contacts from poker & attacking real estate or luxury auto sales?
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Old 02-25-2019, 07:16 PM   #6580
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

This thread is back on track and that feels good...

Spoiler:


Tyman you are on a posting heater.

Keep it up guys, I'll weigh in at some point. I need to sleep now!

Yes, horrific BRM has made things much worse. I believe there are other good reasons to not make poker a career as well, and I do very much believe in a cumulative effect--for almost all temperaments.

Sean needs to GTFO of (full time) poker (but he's not ready yet).

I need to too--but I can't.

Just dropped new eps fwtw.

PEACE
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Old 02-25-2019, 07:20 PM   #6581
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

I wonder how long it takes to show up in my podcast app, nothing yet.

Sessions is awesome, I dropped everything as soon as I saw your post to see if the episodes are available. Keep up the great work, I love your storytelling.

I started listening for the poker content, but I enjoy your lead ups as much if not more than the poker at this point!

edit: Just showed up now, so I guess only like a 15 minute delay.

Last edited by KatoKrazy; 02-25-2019 at 07:28 PM.
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Old 02-25-2019, 07:22 PM   #6582
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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Originally Posted by sarganaga View Post
DGAF, have you considered taking your formidable people skills along with your contacts from poker & attacking real estate or luxury auto sales?
It's funny that I've suggested both of these to Baby Bird from the last Solicited Advice I was on. He worked in auto sales for a year or so at one point and was very obviously naturally talented at it based on his results compared to his experienced coworkers. I'd never considered it for DGAF but I think it would likely be a good fit for him as well, real estate especially.
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Old 02-25-2019, 07:50 PM   #6583
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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Have gone to a therapist with my request basically being "This is how my life has been for 15 years. It is often stressful and frustrating but choosing a different life is a poor financial decision. Please help me be better at dealing with it".
You just have to look at it as an opportunity, which is not a matter of simply deciding to but requires work. There is a difference between 2.27% and 0%, and that's not only real but palpable to you in a way it will never be for most people. Coming to terms with it involves discomfort but ignorance isn't really bliss.
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Old 02-25-2019, 08:11 PM   #6584
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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Originally Posted by TheTyman9 View Post
For sure it's not as easy as "accept variance". We are all human and are going to feel emotions about things. And we also all have different natural dispositions so we won't always all respond to the same variance the same way. All that being said, don't you think that a lot of the stress that comes with poker and variance has been made 100x more stressful due to your decisions on how to handle the bankroll management/life expense aspect of things. I mean the fact that you and Sean have had sustained success in this game despite such aggressive bankroll choices is super impressive and speaks to how much talent you guys have at the game of poker. If you guys consistently played within your bankroll and kept life expenses manageable (obv you can't reverse past choices and it seems like you are trying to make changes on this front which is great) I think you guys would both be set for life from poker and bad runs wouldn't be anywhere near the stressful/abyss feelings they have been. I understand it's tempting/fun to play big and keep some gamble in the game, but when it's your sole source of income that's a big part of why every short term result feels so life/death.

This is a really good post
I may have been a little to conservative over the years with things like shot taking bit it really is nice playing stress free poker bc you're overolled and gives you a huge advantage over most players bc most players are severely underolled.

It's a big reason why I don't run it twice
Most players can't handle variance so ok not gonna help reduce it for them
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Old 02-25-2019, 08:48 PM   #6585
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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Thanks. So you've brought up a psychological issue which I've mentioned on DGAF's pod I think. Maybe others are different, maybe others are similar. But for me, I can take a beating worse than you've ever seen over a short period of time. A couple weeks or even a couple months of poor results really won't bother me at all as long as it's surrounded by business as usual. For me it gets the worst when we get into the 3+ month territory, even if the result is not particularly poor. My losing year in 2018 wasn't for an even remotely large number (I have won more than that in each of my last 3 real stakes sessions this month), it is more that it just becomes so mentally exhausting to know that you have a task that you must do and that the result of the past 500 or whatever hours of trials is so very different from the result of the past over 20,000 hours worth of trials. Again, something that is completely in my head. However, what is not in my head over a 12 month break essentially break even flip flop around year vs a short few weeks of taking a beating is that after the couple weeks of losing, I still have the rest of the year (arbitrary but not really because taxes exist) to actually make money. The end result of my 2018 was pretty catastrophic financially, not because I lost a few dollars in poker, but because I failed to make money in poker while the rest of life continued. Cash purchases of a new (very modest) car, landscaping my yard, new flooring and painting my house, finally having my wisdom teeth removed (dental insurance is a scam don't pay for it) in my 30s, finally replacing my ****ty old furniture, bills and regular cash spending in socal amounts to a very large number. Nothing especially frivolous, just regular spending and then a bunch of necessary/inevitable 1 time purchases following a pretty good year of poker, when at the time of most of these purchases, I had no reason to believe I wouldn't have another good year of poker.

Sorry I rambled a bit there but the tldr of it is that it's not really the short term or even necessarily the long term poker results that bother me. It's the long term financial result where basically putting myself a year or more behind "the plan" ****s with my head. Definitely partially a psychological thing since in reality it had essentially no impact on the games I am able to play.

As far as the bankroll thing, I'm not really sure where the misconception is coming from that I am regularly playing underrolled since it's been mentioned a few times now. Maybe it's because based on my posts it seems that one day I am playing like 5/5 pot limit and the next it is 50/100 or something (which actually happens very often)? That's simply because those are just the games I have access to. I play the smaller games because sometimes that's all there is and because the smaller stakes games I play are mostly super fun and social. I don't really want to get into how much I think a person should have for whatever games I'm playing, but I will say that by pretty much any conventional modern bankroll standards, I am somewhere between very well rolled to massively overrolled for any game I play. I am possibly the biggest bankroll nit I know. I learned a very important lesson in 2012 when I cash busted myself and it's not something I have any interest in allowing to happen again. I was also lucky to run good at the beginning of playing most the bigger games I've played regularly as well as benefiting a decent amount from crypto (all of which will be gone and then some come taxes this year, and part of my mental stress has been knowing that money will be disappearing soon while I fail to bring in more money). Even so, I still sell pieces occasionally for certain games just because I don't want to expose myself to an extraordinarily large loss relative to what I've normally been playing if I won't have a chance to play that game regularly.
That's all super fair. I can definitely relate to the most frustrating times in poker being the long long stretches of mediocre results. I can't imagine the stress of breaking even for a year. However I imagine that sadly, especially when mixing stakes, that losing/breakeven years in live poker are probably somewhat probable to occur due to the low amount of hands played in a years time.

Honestly I have no clue where the misconception is coming from. It's possible that we just misunderstood because you are good friends with DGAF and obv a lot of his stress has come from the high expenses/insufficient bankroll, so since you also seemed really stressed about the abyss stuff we thought you were also on a short bankroll. Obv it's also really hard to be properly rolled for very high stakes games so that may have played into it as well. If it's not bankroll issues that's causing the stress than unfortunately there probably isn't much you can change about the situation other than mindset. Which obv you can work on but ultimately as a human being I don't think it's ever gonna feel great to go to work for a year and not see a direct positive result from that effort. Just the hazard of the job I guess.
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Old 02-25-2019, 10:13 PM   #6586
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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I believe there are other good reasons to not make poker a career as well
I think in 10 years people won't have to be warned off from making poker a career. It just won't even be a thing anymore because so many more people will have failed at it by then. I think last I read there were like 5-10 professional backgammon players in the world. There used to be much much more but everyone got better, edges disappeared and only a few wizards remain. Won't the same thing happen with poker? The fundamental/math side of things keeps going deeper and deeper with solvers and such. The social/fun aspect just keeps getting worse and worse to the point that more and more rec players keep giving up as time goes on. They go broke quicker and no one will look up from their devices to talk to them anyway, so why bother? Games are drying up. I'm sure 1/2, 1/3, and 2/5 will go strong for a while but how many people can earn enough to live off those games? Very few. The WSOP and tourneys will be popular for quite a while too I'm sure but who has the roll to play the live circuit? Even fewer than will attempt full time low stakes poker I'm sure. I'm sure I don't even need to bring up online poker. It will just be painfully obvious that you need other income streams after a while longer
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Old 02-25-2019, 10:45 PM   #6587
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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I think in 10 years people won't have to be warned off from making poker a career. It just won't even be a thing anymore because so many more people will have failed at it by then. I think last I read there were like 5-10 professional backgammon players in the world. There used to be much much more but everyone got better, edges disappeared and only a few wizards remain. Won't the same thing happen with poker? The fundamental/math side of things keeps going deeper and deeper with solvers and such. The social/fun aspect just keeps getting worse and worse to the point that more and more rec players keep giving up as time goes on. They go broke quicker and no one will look up from their devices to talk to them anyway, so why bother? Games are drying up. I'm sure 1/2, 1/3, and 2/5 will go strong for a while but how many people can earn enough to live off those games? Very few. The WSOP and tourneys will be popular for quite a while too I'm sure but who has the roll to play the live circuit? Even fewer than will attempt full time low stakes poker I'm sure. I'm sure I don't even need to bring up online poker. It will just be painfully obvious that you need other income streams after a while longer
You could say the same thing about a bunch of careers over time. With everything in life you should be willing to adapt over time. Online poker probably won't be a profitable venture at some point unless the sites can stop the cheating/bots/technology. But live poker will prob be a thing for the entirety of our lifetime. It may not be nlhe and maybe it will be other games not even invented yet who knows. But honestly what it comes down to is that whatever you are doing for work, you should make sure it is a good use of your time and you should be saving as much money as you reasonably can to become financially independent as early as possible (while still enjoying life along the way). There are higher risk careers than poker and there are much lower risk careers than poker. Everyone's situation should be tailored to what makes sense for their goals in life and where they live. Nothing is one size fits all.

For what it's worth despite me having a great life because of poker I still am of the opinion that for all but a very small subset of people it would be a horrible choice for their main source of income. If you are making a lot and saving a big chunk of it and have a backup plan (degree/other skills/etc) though it can make sense. You just have to be smart about it. Everything has trade offs.
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Old 02-25-2019, 10:54 PM   #6588
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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Originally Posted by SSC-Ry View Post
I think in 10 years people won't have to be warned off from making poker a career. It just won't even be a thing anymore because so many more people will have failed at it by then. I think last I read there were like 5-10 professional backgammon players in the world. There used to be much much more but everyone got better, edges disappeared and only a few wizards remain. Won't the same thing happen with poker? The fundamental/math side of things keeps going deeper and deeper with solvers and such. The social/fun aspect just keeps getting worse and worse to the point that more and more rec players keep giving up as time goes on. They go broke quicker and no one will look up from their devices to talk to them anyway, so why bother? Games are drying up. I'm sure 1/2, 1/3, and 2/5 will go strong for a while but how many people can earn enough to live off those games? Very few. The WSOP and tourneys will be popular for quite a while too I'm sure but who has the roll to play the live circuit? Even fewer than will attempt full time low stakes poker I'm sure. I'm sure I don't even need to bring up online poker. It will just be painfully obvious that you need other income streams after a while longer
The egos poker players have...

Countless millions have tested their fates at the poker tables since the boom. But yet only a fraction of a percent have managed to carve out a life/ significant winnings from the game long term. People see the rare success stories as proof that anyone can be successful with hard work, a gto diet and fitness plan. The numbers point in the opposite direction.

Their success has more to with the sheer number of people that tried and failed than it has to do with their own intelligence/IQ/work ethic. They’re just a statistic. With enough time and trials, even the lowest of probabilities will come to fruition (just look at life and the universe). That’s not to say intelligence isnt a factor, just that time, coincidence and variance play a much bigger role in live poker than what most people will admit.
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Old 02-25-2019, 11:24 PM   #6589
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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I'll take one today and post it on twitter. As long as I've been on 2p2, I don't know how to post pics lol. I tried to post my graph a while back and my head exploded/I had to have cusegrinder help me.

If you want to nab the pic from twitter and post it in here, it's def something to see lol.

edit: I just read your sn correctly and it made me smile. Thx!
That's not what I was picturing in my head. I was expecting a cute, pink pig.

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Old 02-26-2019, 01:00 AM   #6590
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

sup y'all.

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Originally Posted by TheTyman9 View Post
[...] don't you think that a lot of the stress that comes with poker and variance has been made 100x more stressful due to your decisions on how to handle the bankroll management/life expense aspect of things. I mean the fact that you and Sean have had sustained success in this game despite such aggressive bankroll choices is super impressive and speaks to how much talent you guys have at the game of poker. If you guys consistently played within your bankroll and kept life expenses manageable (obv you can't reverse past choices and it seems like you are trying to make changes on this front which is great) I think you guys would both be set for life from poker and bad runs wouldn't be anywhere near the stressful/abyss feelings they have been. I understand it's tempting/fun to play big and keep some gamble in the game, but when it's your sole source of income that's a big part of why every short term result feels so life/death.
yes. that said, one of the complicating factors is that it takes a significant chunk of cash to be properly rolled for games big enough that you can make a good living in them. this is the paradox of "coming up" in poker. you basically have to have a wad of external cash and somehow also have the skill and experience to be a top shelf player at 5/10+, then it *might* work out for you. because building a roll through low stakes games is basically futile. poker is fkd yo.

[broken record mode:] poker best part-time / supplemental. many of these problems go away, and you can build a roll with more reliable income, and then deploy it into high stakes action (if available).

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Originally Posted by atenesq View Post
limon says that variance has no effect on him because he is properly bankrolled for his games. It has a significant effect on you and you aren't.
this is worth separately addressing because limon is one of the few left standing, so to speak. some observations:

1) he does not have kids
2) he has a high income partner that likely gets spousal benefits
3) he has significant side income
4) he has bumhunted to PLO as hold'em games trend downward in expectation
5) he plays in city with the best consistently available 3-fig hourly games in the world
6) he enjoys a relatively inexpensive lifestyle.
7) despite all of this, i still get the sense he's looking for ways to diversify income away from playing.

what does that tell you?

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Originally Posted by TheTyman9 View Post
For sure it's not as easy as "accept variance". We are all human and are going to feel emotions about things. And we also all have different natural dispositions so we won't always all respond to the same variance the same way.
Quote:
Originally Posted by atenesq View Post
I've acknowledged that and I hereby acknowledge it again. It's hard. It's so hard. There is a chasm of a million miles between the initial intellectual acceptance of the concept that this is something you can control and genuinely believing it to the point where you can carry it into practical effect.

These are the tricks our brains play on us. You're like a kid standing frozen at the end of the diving board. It's not because you're afraid of the water, it's because you forgot how to jump.
interesting posts. being in the red over my last 250 hours (not that that's anything of note), although i handle variance very well in general, i've been thinking recently about how it's actually quite unnatural for humans to be unaffected by variance, in live poker especially, due to the crazily high expanses of time that you can run bad for. (basically because the game is so slow.) imagine if live cash ran at 300 hands/hr somehow, but everything else was the same. variance would be so much easier to handle, because top notch player would so rarely break even over multi-month or year long periods. human nature is to be emotionally invested in outcomes. and yet as pros we do everything in our power to keep ignoring outcomes that secretly we can't help but care about. all of this is hugely amplified by being underrolled, or not rolled. maybe the answer to where DGAF's "cumulative effect" of variance comes from lies in this endless, unnatural emotional tug-of-war?

Quote:
Originally Posted by SSC-Ry View Post
I think in 10 years people won't have to be warned off from making poker a career. It just won't even be a thing anymore because so many more people will have failed at it by then. I think last I read there were like 5-10 professional backgammon players in the world. There used to be much much more but everyone got better, edges disappeared and only a few wizards remain. Won't the same thing happen with poker? The fundamental/math side of things keeps going deeper and deeper with solvers and such. The social/fun aspect just keeps getting worse and worse to the point that more and more rec players keep giving up as time goes on. They go broke quicker and no one will look up from their devices to talk to them anyway, so why bother? Games are drying up. I'm sure 1/2, 1/3, and 2/5 will go strong for a while but how many people can earn enough to live off those games? Very few. The WSOP and tourneys will be popular for quite a while too I'm sure but who has the roll to play the live circuit? Even fewer than will attempt full time low stakes poker I'm sure. I'm sure I don't even need to bring up online poker. It will just be painfully obvious that you need other income streams after a while longer
this has been explored extensively ITT and elsewhere. i don't really agree. the "walk in any time and sit down in a $100/hr NLHE game" days are ending, yes. but fundamentally poker is a meeting point of people who want to compete intellectually for money. despite its complexity, poker is actually a very efficient and simplified way of accomplishing this. in some form, this will always exist. the pros of the future will be pro in how they find, assemble, get invited to, or otherwise access the games where rich guys compete intellectually for money.

DGAF, speaking of limon, that interview should be a 2-parter
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Old 02-26-2019, 01:30 AM   #6591
pewpewrobot
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

@katokrazy @seansnyder
Whenever there are rich interesting people giving away money at the public tables, there will be people coming in to pick it up. When there's enough of those people relative to the losing players, then the games become ****ty. I think that's the mechanics of why all games aren't like the private donk fests.

Like Negreanu said, the best way to be good for the game is to be a losing player and it takes a lot to make up for not being a losing player.

That's just how the system works and how human nature works where ****regs and 18/16 recs are a product of the system. Selfishness or shortsightedness is just part of human nature. We're all just actors in a larger system that we don't have that much control over.
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Old 02-26-2019, 01:43 AM   #6592
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

Quote:
Originally Posted by SSC-Ry View Post
I think in 10 years people won't have to be warned off from making poker a career. It just won't even be a thing anymore because so many more people will have failed at it by then. I think last I read there were like 5-10 professional backgammon players in the world. There used to be much much more but everyone got better, edges disappeared and only a few wizards remain. Won't the same thing happen with poker? The fundamental/math side of things keeps going deeper and deeper with solvers and such. The social/fun aspect just keeps getting worse and worse to the point that more and more rec players keep giving up as time goes on. They go broke quicker and no one will look up from their devices to talk to them anyway, so why bother? Games are drying up. I'm sure 1/2, 1/3, and 2/5 will go strong for a while but how many people can earn enough to live off those games? Very few. The WSOP and tourneys will be popular for quite a while too I'm sure but who has the roll to play the live circuit? Even fewer than will attempt full time low stakes poker I'm sure. I'm sure I don't even need to bring up online poker. It will just be painfully obvious that you need other income streams after a while longer
In ten years there will still be live pros.anyone who thinks they will be playing online nl for a living is insane or knows how to make great b
ots.

The difference between poker and backgammon is poker involves a ton of short term luck insuring morons have winning streak and let's bad players think they're good.backgammon does not have this feature which makes it a bad way to make a living.

Sean- I may also take an unhealthy enjoyment out of seeing people lose.if someone is running hot and humble good for them
But it is really satisfying to see someone who was running good and thinks they're God's gift to poker run bad for a few days and totally unravel over the next week's or months

I'm also quite good at predicting who it will happen to
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Old 02-26-2019, 02:03 AM   #6593
pewpewrobot
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

Also, just to tie together the ****tiness of losing and poker as a career. One thing that doesn't get mentioned often enough is that the glorification of risk is unbelievably bad for the individual. Poker pros are taking on insane personal risks that are usually undertaken by organizations. They have to take on the financial side of buying into games, but then also finding games, training, breakeven/losing stretches, and a slew of other things. While some thrive in that environment, a lot of the ones that fail just get kicked to the curb and forgotten and mocked.

I think we've all eaten the humble pie here. In the grand scheme of things, even if they are insufferable game-worsening nits, anyone putting up the money to sit down deserves some respect
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Old 02-26-2019, 03:34 AM   #6594
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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Originally Posted by KatoKrazy View Post
I know there's a lot of controversy over "private games" being held in public casinos, but I just want to thank DGAF. Because of this thread I know the importance of being good for the game, and through that I am now a part of an amazing private game here in LA.

It's 5/5/10 and everyone pays the straddler 25 bucks if he wins the pot. It also plays much bigger than your typical 5/10.

The reason I'm so happy to be in this game is not just because the game is so good though. It's just a super enjoyable game. Interesting, nice people having fun together and gambling. Nobody ever gets mad about how someone plays a hand. Everyone is socializing, nobody with headphones or watching movies.

Why can't every game be like this?
Is this the game they do $100 bomb pots every new dealer or something of the sort?
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Old 02-26-2019, 05:45 AM   #6595
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

How common are players who intently stare down their opponents? I was playing with a guy last week who didn’t play very many hands, but every time he did play a hand, he would stare down whoever was in it. He stares at them preflop before calling their raise, stares at them as the flop/turn/river comes out (instead of looking at the board himself...), stares at them while they’re acting, and continues to stare at them after they’ve made their move. When I looked back at him during a hand, he continued to stare me down, not breaking eye contact. I don’t know if it’s an intimidation tactic or he really picks up lots of reads that way. He seemed like a decent player and probably a pro, but his behavior was very off putting.

Anyone have to deal with these kind of players? How do you deal with them? Is this behavior more common in higher stakes because every read you can pick up is so valuable?
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Old 02-26-2019, 06:24 AM   #6596
SSC-Ry
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

Quote:
Originally Posted by 8o8 View Post



this has been explored extensively ITT and elsewhere. i don't really agree. the "walk in any time and sit down in a $100/hr NLHE game" days are ending, yes. but fundamentally poker is a meeting point of people who want to compete intellectually for money. despite its complexity, poker is actually a very efficient and simplified way of accomplishing this. in some form, this will always exist. the pros of the future will be pro in how they find, assemble, get invited to, or otherwise access the games where rich guys compete intellectually for money.
But on what scale do you think this will continue to happen? In 2007 anyone who wasn't a complete idiot could be a poker pro if they wanted. Ten years later online poker had long fallen from its previous high, tons of training sites exist, and the competition was much steeper at the midstakes, with games drying up across the country. In ten more years all you have to do is be properly rolled, be super skilled at poker, be enough of a people person to get invited to games and possibly arrange them and be super adaptable to a constantly changing environment? I believe that is a pretty tough job description for 99% of people. The ones that can pull it off will be the sharpies who have already been doing it for years and even those guys seem to want out of poker/look for other income streams. Everyone in this thread(DGAF, Sean, borg, Tyman) who has been pulling it off admits its a bad plan for anyone without a super unique skill set. Personally I don't see the smartphone generation having any of the qualities necessary to be a live poker pro. I know its been discussed a lot in this thread but I think its the main point of the thread!

Last edited by SSC-Ry; 02-26-2019 at 06:41 AM.
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Old 02-26-2019, 07:55 AM   #6597
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

I don't know any truly good live pros under the age of 28 or so anymore. I think the future of even new live pros is non existent. The above post is very true. Many people are out of touch with reality today.
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Old 02-26-2019, 09:30 AM   #6598
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

The only way out of the trap of "variance influencing mindset, attitude, etc." is internalizing the fact that happiness, fulfillment, and all that comes from the inside. Meditation can help with internalizing this.

I don't mean in the moment really. I still feel the sting when sucked out on but it dissipates really fast. My wife can't tell my result from my mood when I get home.

I think if most people saw the graphed relationship between their well-being and their material success, they'd be surprised by the size of the correlation. Once the hedonic treadmill gets a hold of it, the good feelings associated with a lot of material success go away. I mean, dgaf and Sean have been to the mountain top in poker/personal finance. And they still experience the pain. Kinda says it all.

Granted, I'm not a pro, let alone a mid/high stakes player. But I do play for meaningful money and have put in thousands of hours in addition to experiencing a lot of life variance. So take my perspective for what it's worth.

I do believe a lot of the pain comes from how tangible poker variance is. Variance is pervasive throughout life and the universe, as we have discussed here. It's hard when you're losing, but take joy in the fact that you get to see the beast unmasked while simultaneously understanding its power. So many people go through life not knowing how things really work. But you won't.
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Old 02-26-2019, 12:27 PM   #6599
8o8
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

Quote:
Originally Posted by SSC-Ry View Post
But on what scale do you think this will continue to happen? In 2007 anyone who wasn't a complete idiot could be a poker pro if they wanted. Ten years later online poker had long fallen from its previous high, tons of training sites exist, and the competition was much steeper at the midstakes, with games drying up across the country. In ten more years all you have to do is be properly rolled, be super skilled at poker, be enough of a people person to get invited to games and possibly arrange them and be super adaptable to a constantly changing environment? I believe that is a pretty tough job description for 99% of people. The ones that can pull it off will be the sharpies who have already been doing it for years and even those guys seem to want out of poker/look for other income streams. Everyone in this thread(DGAF, Sean, borg, Tyman) who has been pulling it off admits its a bad plan for anyone without a super unique skill set. Personally I don't see the smartphone generation having any of the qualities necessary to be a live poker pro. I know its been discussed a lot in this thread but I think its the main point of the thread!
Yup. I never said it will be easy. All those things you list are basically required already to make it work.

Where we differ is that I think many of the things that make poker a poor long term primary income proposition were true from the beginning, say 2003+. It’s just that a) no one had been doing it long enough yet to attest to it until about 2012 or so, and b) the money was easier to extract in copious amounts, and people will overlook a lot for easy money. The fact that it’s getting trickier to extract money from the game is just exposing the pitfalls of poker and eliminating the people who could maybe make it but were really just looking for an easy payday, like so many people are.

So I’m optimistic about the future of poker in general as an income generating thing but less rosy on the fundamental nature of poker itself, particularly as a primary income.

Quote:
Originally Posted by cannabusto View Post
The only way out of the trap of "variance influencing mindset, attitude, etc." is internalizing the fact that happiness, fulfillment, and all that comes from the inside. Meditation can help with internalizing this.

I don't mean in the moment really. I still feel the sting when sucked out on but it dissipates really fast. My wife can't tell my result from my mood when I get home.

I think if most people saw the graphed relationship between their well-being and their material success, they'd be surprised by the size of the correlation. Once the hedonic treadmill gets a hold of it, the good feelings associated with a lot of material success go away. I mean, dgaf and Sean have been to the mountain top in poker/personal finance. And they still experience the pain. Kinda says it all.
Ya. This comes back to, in my view, the fact that poker is designed primarily as a game of wagers. It’s a pure pursuit of money, if you think about it. Yes it involves all kinds of intriguing things, but it’s hard for something who’s end goal is just profit to be fulfilling. This is why people who pursue jobs or business ventures exclusively or primarily to reap the financial rewards a) tend to fail and b) when they do succeed, tend to find that despite being richer, they’re still miserable.

Money is a great and necessary by-product of doing something awesome. The pursuit of meaning and fulfilment are much more important in life than the pursuit of happiness. Happiness is fleeting no matter what your life is like. Meaning and fulfilment are not.

All to say, it’s probably best not to stake your claim in life on a game that is fundamentally ill suited to provide meaning and fulfilment, despite its capability to at times provide happiness.
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Old 02-26-2019, 12:59 PM   #6600
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

Quote:
Originally Posted by borg23 View Post
In ten years there will still be live pros.anyone who thinks they will be playing online nl for a living is insane or knows how to make great b
ots.

The difference between poker and backgammon is poker involves a ton of short term luck insuring morons have winning streak and let's bad players think they're good.backgammon does not have this feature which makes it a bad way to make a living.

Sean- I may also take an unhealthy enjoyment out of seeing people lose.if someone is running hot and humble good for them
But it is really satisfying to see someone who was running good and thinks they're God's gift to poker run bad for a few days and totally unravel over the next week's or months

I'm also quite good at predicting who it will happen to
Youre looking at your own subjective experience as a pro and then trying to extrapolate that into a logical hypothesis. It doesnt work that way. Zoom out. Think of the number of intelligent people who have attempted live cash since the boom. We’re talking about millions of Americans. Now think about the number of grinders who’ve had 10+ year success at live cash averaging say 100k+/year.

If intelligence and hard work is as important as the limons and borgs of the world say, then we should see many more successful live cash players. Why is it that not even 0.01% of all players who attempted this life path have “succeeded”? It’s quite obvious that intelligence/hard work/ will power (while essential) is not the single greatest attribute to long term success as a live pro.

It’s tough to accept that your long term success is attributed more to randomness than your own willpower and intelligence. Live pros will exist in the future, but will be nothing more than the anomalies we see in probability and statistics today.
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