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Old Yesterday, 01:15 AM   #6476
icanadd
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

For the sake of clarity I am not against UBI per say. I just do not think I have been convinced it is a practical large scale solution. Or that the reasons given that we need it are convincing to me. I do not think we are at the point where we either need it nor are we at a point we could afford it. I do not think that time is particularly soon either.

This discussion is by its very nature quite complex, which is part of what makes it interesting.

I am an advocate that technology is part of (maybe the biggest part of) the solution rather than the problem. From my view looking back on history while its benefits have been uneven, and not all advances positive in the sum the world is better off today than 50 years ago, and 50 years before that and so on. Just take a ride on the carousel of progress at Disney world and then get back at me if you think other wise.


I do think that some more limited applications of a UBI like program for the less fortunate/those in transition are a preferable policy solution than some of the programs we have today.

I do think we need responses that help people transition as the economy changes. While I do think overall technology changes the world for the better it does not do that evenly. Technology is a disruption and the least equipped often end up with the worst outcome.

As far as paying to UBI today a 10% tax would almost certainly lead to a rise in prices. I would worry about the inflationary effects of that. I would worry that a full scale UBI program would be a disincentive to work, that it would hurt productivity and the global competitiveness of the US economy.

Given how much of the rest of the world is in desperate poverty, living in countries with broken or non existent institutions, war, famine and lack of basic medical the fact that we can even think about programs like UBI shows us just how lucky we are in the USA and the rest of the developed world.
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Old Yesterday, 03:37 AM   #6477
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

@DGAF

I can't believe no one's recommended this before but check out Hardcore History by Dan Carlin - I have no words to describe how awesome these are. My pers fav series is "Wrath of The Khans" about the Mongol empire/ domination. You will thank me for this one!

Sam Harris does one of the most rational, logical & insightful podcasts out there, very solid rec. The man's one of the best contemporary thinkers so it's no wonder...

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Old Yesterday, 01:07 PM   #6478
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

Woohoo new Sessions episodes! Work will fly today.
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Old Yesterday, 03:12 PM   #6479
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

Hey yo, how 'bout DGAF The Therapist in the latest Solicited Advice? Sooooolid advice DGAFster, nh sir.

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Old Yesterday, 03:16 PM   #6480
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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Woohoo new Sessions episodes! Work will fly today.
Phuckyeah dude! Haven't had time to listen to the last batch so I've an awesome Seshy binge comin' up.

Also, I think they're getting better by the session. Talkinbout DGAF puttin' in WORK!!

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Old Yesterday, 09:41 PM   #6481
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

To continue with the UBI discussion just for the fun of it, here are a couple of thinking points:

1. How to pay for it. The main explanation for how to pay for it boils down to 2 major points- A) institute a 10% or so Value Added Tax on goods and services, and B) The money saved on things like jails, healthcare, and unemployment will help fund it as well.

Personally I think both of these suggestions are terrible. Every state in the US except 4 already have a sales tax on goods and services of between around 3-7%. So adding 10% overnight is a pretty aggressive economic move. Especially since the state with the most people (CA) also has the highest sales tax at >7%. Saying “Goodmorning Californians, you now have a 17% tax on everything” will not be a very chill move. It would have major economic impact and other than funding the UBI I can’t think of a single positive result economically.

Regarding the “cost savings” the UBI ostensibly provides, that’s not how budgets work. It’s not as if any dollars saved in the jail system go into a pot from which UBI department can draw. If you want to fund a portion of UBI from another area you have to make budget cuts. So in practice you would have to cut the budgets of jails, or Medicaid, or SSI and allocate those cuts toward UBI. That would be political suicide and would never work as part of a bipartisan budget.

2. From an economics perspective, why would you ever propose a gift instead of an incentive? What would be better for the world, a stipend of $1000 to everyone or a stipend of $1000 to everyone who recycles? Or how about a stipend of $1000 or a stipend of $1000 for everyone who picks up a piece of litter in their neighborhood park? Incentivizing any positive behavior would have to be better than a pure gift. So from both an economic and a behavioral science standpoint, UBI is worse than an infinite number of possible alternatives. Anytime an idea can be described as “worse than an infinite number of things we could imagine off the top of our heads” it is probably not a super sweet idea.

3. Andrew Yang likes to talk about the % of folks not engaged in the workforce at all rather than pure unemployment percentages. He feels like that better captures the scope of the plight of the unemployed and argues that the UBI would help reduce the % of young people who have dropped out of the workforce all together. So consider this- what would help people get back to work more: a $1000 a month stipend or a $1000 a month employment bonus whereby you get $1000 extra every month you maintain employment? Honestly, which approach would increase the % of people engaged in the workforce more?

This is my main philosophical argument with the UBI. Any idea I can imagine, even bad ideas, seem clearly superior to a monthly gift to everyone. So if we want to raise taxes to help reduce the pain and suffering of the underemployed and disenfranchised... I’m all ears. But Universal Basic Income is literally the worst solution I can imagine. Throwing dollar bills out of airplanes would be a better idea because at least that would be fun.
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Old Yesterday, 10:30 PM   #6482
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

An automation tax could be feasible at the point when UBI is necessary.

Yeah, incentives for employment would be great, but the entire point of this is that we're assuming there's not enough available jobs. Without the assumption the entire point is moot. I wouldn't mind the idea of attaching the stipend to "some" sort of positive behavior though, even if it's minimal
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Old Yesterday, 11:49 PM   #6483
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

I'm behind on the podcast and it's been discussed I think but consign times 1000 venetian dealers being the worst. They can't let the game play out naturally ever and always want to chime in or call out players for things no other players even notice or even think is unnatural, like string bets or accidental raises that no one is trying to enforce except the dealer.
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Old Today, 03:41 AM   #6484
BERRI SOUR
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

re: 3. Andrew Yang likes to talk about the % of folks not engaged in the workforce at all rather than pure unemployment percentages. He feels like that better captures the scope of the plight of the unemployed and argues that the UBI would help reduce the % of young people who have dropped out of the workforce all together. So consider this- what would help people get back to work more: a $1000 a month stipend or a $1000 a month employment bonus whereby you get $1000 extra every month you maintain employment? Honestly, which approach would increase the % of people engaged in the workforce more?

This makes a lot of sense and is a very good argument IMO
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Old Today, 07:06 AM   #6485
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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re: 3. Andrew Yang likes to talk about the % of folks not engaged in the workforce at all rather than pure unemployment percentages. He feels like that better captures the scope of the plight of the unemployed and argues that the UBI would help reduce the % of young people who have dropped out of the workforce all together. So consider this- what would help people get back to work more: a $1000 a month stipend or a $1000 a month employment bonus whereby you get $1000 extra every month you maintain employment? Honestly, which approach would increase the % of people engaged in the workforce more?

This makes a lot of sense and is a very good argument IMO
It does indeed. I think, however, that that isn't the crux of his argument. AFAICT, it's this:

When (not if) automation decimates the job market, where does that leave mature people with redundant skills? To adapt & evolve? Sure, but rationally speaking, how is a 40 year old miner/trucker/etc going to realistically adapt to this new world? For the sake of all that is good and wholesome, please don't suggest they learn to code. What % of the employnent force do such roles consitute?

I believe this will inevitably, eventually become a global issue and as in many other fields the US are at the vanguard/ are forced to grapple with this issue first.

Personally I cannot see any other viable solutions.

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Old Today, 07:06 AM   #6486
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

Other than a Great Big Wall, ofc.

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Old Today, 12:39 PM   #6487
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

we already have a **** ton of people with redundant skills getting paid for no apparent reason. it's called US military

we also have a quasi UBI in place in most major cities, just research how much we spend on welfare/medicaid/no income housing per person

I personally think UBI is another way of kicking a can down the road until it finally blows up in our face
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Old Today, 01:14 PM   #6488
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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It does indeed. I think, however, that that isn't the crux of his argument. AFAICT, it's this:

When (not if) automation decimates the job market, where does that leave mature people with redundant skills? To adapt & evolve? Sure, but rationally speaking, how is a 40 year old miner/trucker/etc going to realistically adapt to this new world? For the sake of all that is good and wholesome, please don't suggest they learn to code. What % of the employnent force do such roles consitute?

I believe this will inevitably, eventually become a global issue and as in many other fields the US are at the vanguard/ are forced to grapple with this issue first.

Personally I cannot see any other viable solutions.

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First thing that pops into my mind: give employers $1000 a month to hire somebody they otherwise wouldn’t to work for them. I run a business and if the government gave me $1000 a month to pay an out of work truck driver to help around the office I would do it. So would any employer. It’s not a perfect solution but it’s better than straight no-strings UBI. That’s the problem with the idea, it’s worse than any other idea I can come up with and I’m neither a politician nor an economist.
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Old Today, 01:19 PM   #6489
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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If you’re interested in history I would check out ‘Hardcore History’ by Dan Carlin. He’s a world class historian and even better story teller. His best work is probably the ‘Wrath of the Kahns’ series about the Mongul Empire. It used to be free on iTunes but I think you might have to pay now. He has other free content on there though.
Sorry brother, missed your comment there 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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Old Today, 03:30 PM   #6490
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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First thing that pops into my mind: give employers $1000 a month to hire somebody they otherwise wouldn’t to work for them. I run a business and if the government gave me $1000 a month to pay an out of work truck driver to help around the office I would do it. So would any employer. It’s not a perfect solution but it’s better than straight no-strings UBI. That’s the problem with the idea, it’s worse than any other idea I can come up with and I’m neither a politician nor an economist.


Finally you reveal your self serving agenda after feigning concern for the Macro-welfare of society. "By God, don't you dare give $1000 to the undeserving poor, give it to me instead! Since I already have money I am clearly much more deserving and I'll even use some of it to employ Jim Bob in some busywork."
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Old Today, 03:52 PM   #6491
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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John B is a fascinating dude. I'd be interested to hear your take on the show as a whole, if you make it to the end.

I like interview-based podcasts more than highly produced stuff like S-town or This American Life. One of my favorites is Conversations with Tyler.

If you can't resist the true crime genre, fellow pokerer Brad Willis has a podcast called Murder Etc., no clue if it'll be good but he's put lots of work into it.



Spoiler:
I'm almost through S-Town, waiting for the big moment. Aside from John B (a gay, bipolar, genius clock restorer living in a total red neck town--solid), everything else seems pretty standard. I do love the investigator being appalled by all the hardcore **** that seems like no big deal to these people--he literally loses his voice on the phone and they are like, "What, buddy?"

Pretty good pod. Need something to happen though in the last ep.

Edit: I have 2 eps left

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Old Today, 04:12 PM   #6492
Sho Nuff
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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I'm almost through S-Town, waiting for the big moment. Aside from John B (a gay, bipolar, genius clock restorer living in a total red neck town--solid), everything else seems pretty standard. I do love the investigator being appalled by all the hardcore **** that seems like no big deal to these people--he literally loses his voice on the phone and they are like, "What, buddy?"

Pretty good pod. Need something to happen though in the last ep.


I got another pod for you that you’ll get completely lost in. Its way less dark than Serial and **** Town but the production and storytelling is just as good. It’s called ‘Mogul’. I got it thru Spotify. It’s like 6 30 minute episodes. It tells the life story of Chris Lighty and because Chris was part of many of the most seminal moments in hip hop, it also tells the story of hip hop growing from this funny little thing in the 80s to what is today. Want to know what it’s like to be cornered in a back room by Suge Knight? Want to know how Def Jam went from weeks away from bankruptcy to flush within months in the mid 90s? Want to know how 50 cent made $100,000,000 from Coca Cola? It also has a killer soundtrack and cool guests.

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