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Old 09-12-2018, 01:28 PM   #5201
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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Originally Posted by upswinging View Post
There's no way the average non pro is making 11bb/hr worth of mistakes. My local casino has 1 2/5 table filled the same ~5 breakevenish guys every single weekend for years. There is no way that they could play this long if they were losing @ $55hr.

500 cap I'd fade 30k year. 2/5 1k cap id fade 45k year. 5/T cap id fade 70k year.
Five breakevenish guys are not the "average non-pro."

If the average non-pro was break evenish, literally nobody would be losing any money.

Also, if we're defining "break even" as having a $0/hr EV over a large sample in the average 2/5 game, "break even" players are not very good. Show me a game with nine breakeven players and I'll agree they're break even in EV. Show me a game with eight breakeven players and me (or literally any halfway decent pro), and I'll show you eight losing players and a pro. I'd lick my chops to play in a game with eight "break even" players.
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Old 09-12-2018, 01:47 PM   #5202
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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Five breakevenish guys are not the "average non-pro."

If the average non-pro was break evenish, literally nobody would be losing any money.

Also, if we're defining "break even" as having a $0/hr EV over a large sample in the average 2/5 game, "break even" players are not very good. Show me a game with nine breakeven players and I'll agree they're break even in EV. Show me a game with eight breakeven players and me (or literally any halfway decent pro), and I'll show you eight losing players and a pro. I'd lick my chops to play in a game with eight "break even" players.
A standard 2/5 nl game in my home casino has maybe 2-3 fish in each line up. The rest are tightish, breakevenish players. So yeah, the average non pro in a 2/5 game is a breakevenish, tightish player. They're not good at the game, but there's no way you beat the rake and squeeze tight/be players for 15bb/hr or whatever else you claim.

Im curious what kind of games you're playing in to believe your annual income estimates reflect reality.
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Old 09-12-2018, 01:55 PM   #5203
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

2/5 is more or less the biggest NLHE game in my casino and it is nothing like you describe. It can vary a ton place to place.
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Old 09-12-2018, 02:13 PM   #5204
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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A standard 2/5 nl game in my home casino has maybe 2-3 fish in each line up. The rest are tightish, breakevenish players. So yeah, the average non pro in a 2/5 game is a breakevenish, tightish player. They're not good at the game, but there's no way you beat the rake and squeeze tight/be players for 15bb/hr or whatever else you claim.

Im curious what kind of games you're playing in to believe your annual income estimates reflect reality.
You've just described a game with zero good players as evidence that high winrates cannot be achieved in live poker. Think about that for a minute.
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Old 09-12-2018, 03:58 PM   #5205
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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You've just described a game with zero good players as evidence that high winrates cannot be achieved in live poker. Think about that for a minute.
I don't know why it is so difficult for you to understand. A player doesn't have to be even remotely good at the game in order to winrate block a far superior player from 15bb/hr. All they have to do is play tight, 9 handed, and <150bb and it's game over. While that player is certainly bad at the game, there's no way you beat him (or a group of them) for 15bb/hr unless you run really hot, regardless of how superior your game is compared to theirs.

Are you going to share what a typical lineup in your games looks like?
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Old 09-13-2018, 07:06 AM   #5206
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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I don't know why it is so difficult for you to understand. A player doesn't have to be even remotely good at the game in order to winrate block a far superior player from 15bb/hr. All they have to do is play tight, 9 handed, and <150bb and it's game over. While that player is certainly bad at the game, there's no way you beat him (or a group of them) for 15bb/hr unless you run really hot, regardless of how superior your game is compared to theirs.

Are you going to share what a typical lineup in your games looks like?
Pretty much this. Solid post.

I am not gonna fully jump into this debate, but i will just say that my opinion is that alot of liveplayers overestimate achieveable winrates longterm in the live environment pr se 2018.
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Old 09-13-2018, 10:16 AM   #5207
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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Pretty much this. Solid post.

I am not gonna fully jump into this debate, but i will just say that my opinion is that alot of liveplayers overestimate achieveable winrates longterm in the live environment pr se 2018.
+1. And for this reason, along with the yearly income estimates most people are giving - I think in 2018 it makes much more sense to grind 1/2 and 1/3 (Where the edge is huge and your hourly will be close to what it is in a 2/5 game anyway) and only jump in 2/5 or 5/10 games when the lineup looks good. It just seems the majority of the time 2/5 is just a bunch of grinders/OMC/wanna be pros with like 1-2 recs. Just not a lot of edge there. No one is giving it away. You have to run good/cooler people. Plus 1/2 and 1/3 are fun and 2/5 can be an absolutely miserable experience depending on the lineup. I mean I'm sure there are still good 2/5 games out there but there have to be way less than there was 5 years ago
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Old 09-13-2018, 12:54 PM   #5208
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

As a rec- every 2/5 I have sat in for over a year has been soul sucking. It’s always while waiting for 5/10 or 10/25 so maybe the mindset has something to do with enjoyment or attitude.


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Old 09-13-2018, 01:49 PM   #5209
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

^^^

It's sad to accept we've reached this state. 2/5 used to be the "low limit" game full of fish and recs. In 2018 it is full of pros, nits, OMCs, serious players... I'm sure the occasional fish who jumps in wanting to gamble will be quickly discouraged when every one of their limps get punished and no one else is gambling/playing for fun. They either learn to play like the others or quit.
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Old 09-13-2018, 01:56 PM   #5210
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

And there was this post from this thread that, if true, made me sad about the future of poker:

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/2...layer-1722627/


Quote:
Originally Posted by callipygian View Post
While I totally agree with the rest of your post, fundamentally, most of the people who are asking about these things are pretty happy with mid-5 figure winnings.

Their (negative) responses to your post will be best interpreted through the lens of the real question being, "Where can I put in the fewest hours playing mediocre poker and not have to make any major sacrifices to my middle class lifestyle expectations?"

Like, shockingly few people want to move up. If you said to a new pro that in 20 years they'll still be playing the same stakes they're playing now, 90% of them would take that as a compliment.
Sounds like the "poker dream" has gone from ballin' at strip clubs and fine dining in Vegas a la the 2008 days to being content with a 50k salary for the rest of your career.
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Old 09-13-2018, 02:14 PM   #5211
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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Originally Posted by cuserounder View Post
Five breakevenish guys are not the "average non-pro."

If the average non-pro was break evenish, literally nobody would be losing any money.

Also, if we're defining "break even" as having a $0/hr EV over a large sample in the average 2/5 game, "break even" players are not very good. Show me a game with nine breakeven players and I'll agree they're break even in EV. Show me a game with eight breakeven players and me (or literally any halfway decent pro), and I'll show you eight losing players and a pro. I'd lick my chops to play in a game with eight "break even" players.
Part of them being break even is that they can effectively win tiny amounts from the slightly weaker players (to offset the rake) and avoid playing pots with the superstars. So they end up actually forcing you to play HU with the drop and that won't end well. I won't waste any more time posting actual data because it seems we are a point to agree to disagree. I will just say that sample size matters. I have millions of hands and it is a lot easier to quantify what a 1bb/hand rake does to the whole table.
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Old 09-13-2018, 02:17 PM   #5212
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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Originally Posted by NoExit View Post
And there was this post from this thread that, if true, made me sad about the future of poker:

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/2...layer-1722627/




Sounds like the "poker dream" has gone from ballin' at strip clubs and fine dining in Vegas a la the 2008 days to being content with a 50k salary for the rest of your career.
The poker dream was never going to remain the way it was. Money was raining down from the sky to kids/people who happened to come across poker and play halfway decent. That wasn't sustainable obviously. Just like how the streamers getting rich off streaming fortnite isn't sustainable either. Or many other examples of things popping off in popularity and then declining. There is still money to be made and there will prob continue to be money to be made for a long time, but for anyone starting from scratch that has decent options in their life, full time poker is not going to be a great choice. The average player that is playing is going to continue to get better over time and rake will prob continue to increase and rewards will prob continue to decrease. Most people who are new to poker should only pursue it as an enjoyable side income and those who are already playing professionally should be saving as much money as possible and have a good back up plan in place.
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Old 09-13-2018, 02:21 PM   #5213
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

not interested in getting into the debate but i feel like it needs a psych injection because it’s so focused on dollars.

50k is appealing to anyone that would have trouble maintaining the first 2 bases of the pyramid, and then 2/5 is where a lot of pros end up and try to build the remaining pieces there, including the social part contributing to the toxicity of the games (making friends with other regs, putting other players down, arrogance) and difficulty (saying stuff out loud was admonished ITT but how long can a 2/5+ game run with a lot of fish before the pros are typing away?)

you can also see how downswings can be so brutal as a pro as essentially all aspects are taking damage during one

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Old 09-13-2018, 03:06 PM   #5214
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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^^^

It's sad to accept we've reached this state. 2/5 used to be the "low limit" game full of fish and recs. In 2018 it is full of pros, nits, OMCs, serious players... I'm sure the occasional fish who jumps in wanting to gamble will be quickly discouraged when every one of their limps get punished and no one else is gambling/playing for fun. They either learn to play like the others or quit.
This has been my experience as well. I've seen that one has to game select at 2/5 rather than the games being full of donators. I'll admit that I'm likely not in the top of the field in terms of skill, but it does seem like a common occurrence for the floor to reprimand people for aggressive table hopping or bum hunting so I'm not the only one that thinks this way. Too much ego, sun running, laziness, and not caring prevents me from following suit.

I've been losing interest in poker. I've literally been playing because I have nothing better to do and it serves as a time sink. I loved poker when first starting out a few years ago. Studying, playing, getting better and discovering the little nuances in the game was a lot of fun, like any other hobby. Now, it's just a ****ing grind.

I've always clashed with a lot of the ideals in this thread because I felt like there was a bit of self-contradiction with nits complaining about other nits or people that study poker complaining about people that study poker. Now that I'm not booking winning sessions 80% of the time anymore and I'm down a lot (seems like variance is catching up to me), poker blows. Losing sucks. Losing sucks way more than winning feels good.

"Guys around here will tell ya, you play for a living, it's like any other job. You don't gamble, you grind it out. Your goal is to win one big bet an hour, that's it. Get your money in when you have the best of it. Protect it when you don't. Don't give anything away....A true grinder. You see, I learned how to win a little at a time. But finally I've learned this: if you're too careful, your whole life can become a ****in' grind." -- Mike McDermott (rounders)

**** the grind. (Apologies in advance for being all over the place and complaining. I'm in a ****ty mood)
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Old 09-13-2018, 04:29 PM   #5215
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

the people pissing away money on nonsense in 2008 balling out from poker were complete morons who blew a great opportunity.

that dream was a mirage.
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Old 09-13-2018, 05:10 PM   #5216
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

if all you play in 2018 is NL and then complain about quality of games I don't even know what to tell you

a few weeks ago I witnessed a random 150-300 mix game start and then run all night 5-handed in the main room where I almost sat down even though it's way above what I normally play and I didn't know rules for 6 out of 8 games

a strong pro would easily make 4 figs an hour in that lineup
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Old 09-13-2018, 10:05 PM   #5217
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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if all you play in 2018 is NL and then complain about quality of games I don't even know what to tell you
agreed. learning all 8 games is well worth it for pro/semi-pro players.

where was this 150/300?
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Old 09-13-2018, 10:23 PM   #5218
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

Borgata
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Old 09-13-2018, 10:24 PM   #5219
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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Keep beating the drum imo. This thread is for those who want the truth--even if it's ugly. And my drumsticks are basically toothpicks at this point.


Given the task to beat the drum I think it is important to point out that after all the discussion of win rates at 2/5 we seem to have come to 50k ish as the “ over under” for a red chip pro. I would take the under others with more experience might take the over.

Either way IF this is your sole source of income and IF you pay your taxes and get decent ( not great ) heath insurance there is not a lot left. There is very little left for sure in a high cost of living area like SoCal.

Furthermore in many places other than Vegas, SoCal and a few others there is not much of a “next step”. In the mid west city where I live 5/10 does not run every day.

Given that over time inflation will make the 5 B.B. worth less and that rake will go up over time the financial out look for a 2/5 pro looks bleak to me.

Now 1000 hours along with a 40 k job that has some benefits...has a much better chance of saving some and building a financial foundation. Even if you have to start with a bad 26k job and work your way up to 40k over a few years seems like a much higher chance of building up.

What seems a really cool can’t imagine anything better lifestyle at 22 is often real tired by 28 and unbearable at 32.

Even if the plan is to build a roll , play bigger and make bank seems a tough way to go about it. Saving money is hard for most people. Really hard when there is not much left over after basics like rent , taxes and health care.

Just my opinion but seems to me most 2/5 pro’s must think making it and getting/scraping buy are the same thing, when they should be quite different.


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Old 09-13-2018, 11:09 PM   #5220
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

What amount of money per year is considered "making it?"

70% of Americans make less than 50k a year. Source, Social Security wage stats for 2016 https://www.ssa.gov/cgi-bin/netcomp.cgi?year=2016
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Old 09-14-2018, 08:17 AM   #5221
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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What amount of money per year is considered "making it?"

70% of Americans make less than 50k a year. Source, Social Security wage stats for 2016 https://www.ssa.gov/cgi-bin/netcomp.cgi?year=2016


Most Americans are not building financial security either. Their is no income number for making it. Making it is when you are able to save and invest enough to help shield yourself from the inevitable unexpected expenses life will send your way.

50k at poker is not equal to 50k from employment. The need to keep a largish chunk of money that you can’t invest, the fact that you do not get health insurance, any retirement etc and the fact you are responsible for both the employer and employees portion of the social security and Medicare contribution means that is not nearly the same total comp as 50k from most jobs.

All that is before we get to the fact it is totally possible to play well in good games and make 0 dollars over moths at a stretch.

There are lots of reasons to choose to be a pro. Freedom being a big one. In my opinion building financial security is not unless you are playing higher than 2/5. Higher than 2/5 is hard to get to unless you can save enough to be properly rolled for it.


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Old 09-14-2018, 08:54 AM   #5222
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

Also we should consider that those on the under could be right. That could make 2/5 a 30k ish job with no benefits that you pay self employment tax on.


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Old 09-14-2018, 05:24 PM   #5223
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

Quote:
Originally Posted by pewpewrobot View Post
This has been my experience as well. I've seen that one has to game select at 2/5 rather than the games being full of donators. I'll admit that I'm likely not in the top of the field in terms of skill, but it does seem like a common occurrence for the floor to reprimand people for aggressive table hopping or bum hunting so I'm not the only one that thinks this way. Too much ego, sun running, laziness, and not caring prevents me from following suit.

I've been losing interest in poker. I've literally been playing because I have nothing better to do and it serves as a time sink. I loved poker when first starting out a few years ago. Studying, playing, getting better and discovering the little nuances in the game was a lot of fun, like any other hobby. Now, it's just a ****ing grind.

I've always clashed with a lot of the ideals in this thread because I felt like there was a bit of self-contradiction with nits complaining about other nits or people that study poker complaining about people that study poker. Now that I'm not booking winning sessions 80% of the time anymore and I'm down a lot (seems like variance is catching up to me), poker blows. Losing sucks. Losing sucks way more than winning feels good.
I'm totally feeling this post. It's a sad state when regs aggressively table hopping at 2/5 just to find a beatable game is the norm. Will they eventually move down to 1/3?

Losing and downswings suck even more when games are dead. Feels like you have to cooler the eff out of someone to get it back.
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Old 09-14-2018, 07:10 PM   #5224
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

I've been playing live and online for 15+ years. In some ways, I think with the rise of GTO instruction, the games have gotten better. People just aren't doing a good job adjusting to this new information. I'm constantly seeing people miss-apply this new information. Its not as easy as it was before, but I think it's better than people think, due to the new levels of complexity. A lot of regs have become spots in my opinion.

Don't underestimate a person's ability to lie to themselves about their own ability and wins and losses. I think a lot of so called "regs" are just basically fish. Mainly, because they can't see their leaks in real time. It can take 3 years to come to reality, meanwhile they're playing in your games, bleeding money. (****, at times, I'm one of these people, but I don't play for a living)

In those 15 years in LA, I can only think of maybe 3-5 guys that are still around from when I started..... And most of them don't drop out because of their poker games and variance, its due to their lack of a good mental game, emotional discipline, overconfidence, entitlement, not adjusting to poker trends, and unrealistic expectations.

The main skills for winning in live poker have little to do with how well you play the game beyond a certain level of competence.
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Old 09-14-2018, 07:25 PM   #5225
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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Originally Posted by WorldBoFree View Post
I've been playing live and online for 15+ years. In some ways, I think with the rise of GTO instruction, the games have gotten better. People just aren't doing a good job adjusting to this new information. I'm constantly seeing people miss-apply this new information. Its not as easy as it was before, but I think it's better than people think, due to the new levels of complexity. A lot of regs have become spots in my opinion.

Don't underestimate a person's ability to lie to themselves about their own ability and wins and losses. I think a lot of so called "regs" are just basically fish. Mainly, because they can't see their leaks in real time. It can take 3 years to come to reality, meanwhile they're playing in your games, bleeding money. (****, at times, I'm one of these people, but I don't play for a living)

In those 15 years in LA, I can only think of maybe 3-5 guys that are still around from when I started..... And most of them don't drop out because of their poker games and variance, its due to their lack of a good mental game, emotional discipline, overconfidence, entitlement, not adjusting to poker trends, and unrealistic expectations.

The main skills for winning in live poker have little to do with how well you play the game beyond a certain level of competence.
This is a good post.
The training sites etc can take a terrible player and make them decent. They can make them good at cookie cutter online games that in 2018 are basically all the same. But if you don't know how to think and adapt to constantly changing live games you might win, but you won't win much.You can't go in with some strategy doug polk taught you and optimize your winnings live,especially when you just understand concepts but don't understand how he came up with them. Live games tend to play a lot deeper as well and people give away so much information at the table that those buried in their tablets never pick up on any of it.

Now if you took 8 doug polk trainees and let hem play with their solvers all day would i beat them for much live? Of course not.But fortunately live tables are filled with terrible players who play all different kinds of terrible.

The bolded is dead on.And the best part is most "good" players don't even realize it.
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