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Medium-High Stakes Full Ring Discussion of $400+ pot-limit and no-limit and 5/10 live texas hold'em full ring games, situations and strategies

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Old Yesterday, 02:51 PM   #5026
TimeBomb
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

Variance is kind of a silly topic because of how impossible it is to quantify, especially in live when stats aren't tracked. In I believe 2005, I lost 4 times with quads + using both cards in my hand, twice live and twice on line, and never again. How unlucky is that, and combined with there being no bbjs? My first real year taking poker seriously I probably ran good, but a lot of it was hard to realize since you pay attention to the run bad more then the run good. A lot of it was just flopping sets vs big hands and holding. I think going a whole year without getting 2 outted is running pretty good. I also dont think I ran ak into aa for a whole year besides always putting in the extra raise pre. Now running bad I can tell you stories, because those just stick with you and are more memorable. Live tournies are probably the worst since you're whole year could be dependent on 1 or 2 final table flips. I think the most relevant "variance" factor is how it effects your play. The real pros can lose every flip for a year and it won't effect their game at all. I think for most players, me included will start doubting their game when they are constantly losing ak to aq pre and bricking every draw. Honestly, I think if was able to handle this aspect better I'd be playing for a living right now, but alas I'm only human.
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Old Yesterday, 03:27 PM   #5027
blue moon
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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Originally Posted by upswinging View Post
Great post. Having a valuable skill/trade/degree to begin with is also extremely important. There are very few success stories of guys rising through the mailroom these days. The company man mentality/ work attitude is quickly vanishing.

Not having those hard skills certainty contributes to the vicious cycle and despair of a pro looking to get out. Something like a 2 year degree can be incredibly valuable starting out.
Even if you don't enjoy the work, it can mean a $20/hr+ starting office job vs delivering pizzas for dominoes. Knowing your worst case job scenario means you'll always be able to pay bills / never work min wage again is a wonderful feeling.
obv its going to depend on how busy the pizza shop is but if business is solid and your delivering in a middle class+ area pizza delivery drivers make close to 20$ an hour minus gas and wear n tear on vehicle plus all the money youll save on food if your allowed to eat in house for free
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Old Yesterday, 04:17 PM   #5028
GDude
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

It doesn't make sense to think about variance in terms of categories. All there is is hourly EV (or EV/100) vs actual observed hourly. It's the totality of all the spots, not categorized like "AA vs KK" "set over set", "3 outters."

Like, getting 3 outted on the river should only happen around 7% of time (from the perspective of the turn), so if it happens 5 times in a session, someone might think they ran like dog **** that session even if they won an amount that's higher then their EV for playing that many hours. I hear things like this all the time, "yeah I won X (where X is higher then EV of a strong player for that session length), but if I didn't run like **** and get set over set at the end I woulda had a great day." Or like if someone opens AA in HJ and gets called by BB and he cbets and gets called and then the turn kills his action but they check it down and still win, they whine that they ran like **** because of board run out even though that amount he won is much higher then the EV for getting dealt AA in the HJ.

Seems like people's evaluations of variance are almost entirely focussed on big pots, suckouts, coolers etc. The classic thing is the "all in EV" graph in Holdem manager. Yes, those massive pots at turning points of a career matter a lot in live poker. But what if you've just been running like God in cbet and barreling situation where you've run into the bottom of villain's range way more often then average? Or you got dealt value hands and got 1 street before villain folded way more often then you're expected to get dealt that situation?

Those pots are smaller so we don't remember them, but they come up way more often and add up quickly. If you cbet where it has to work 33% to profit, and villain is expected to fold 36%, you have a profitable situation, but it's still like only a little better then a flip. Maybe you're way ahead on those flips.

Or like bluff catching rivers. Usually only have to be right around 30% of the time, but what if you've ran into opponent's bluffing portion of range like 50% of the time in those spots over last year. That's running way above EV in those spots.

Someone who runs like God in the big showdown pots might be running horribly in these spots but that doesn't even register with us, we just get tilted by the fact that he seemingly runs better then us.

Or did you happen to put your name on the list right after the whale so that you got to play the must move with him all night vs getting moved to the reg infested main game? What if that happened to you like 40 more times then the other regs over the course of the year? That could mean you got to play like 300 more hours in super juicy games then the other regs, which could mean an extra 5figures+ in EV for the year.

There's just tons of different ways to categorize running good or running bad, but it really doesn't make sense to. It's just hourly EV vs results over an entire career.
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Old Yesterday, 04:37 PM   #5029
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

Yup no one thinks they ran good when AA holds vs KK, or their flopped set holds and they never see the vills combo draw.
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Old Yesterday, 07:38 PM   #5030
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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Originally Posted by TimeBomb View Post
Yup no one thinks they ran good when AA holds vs KK, or their flopped set holds and they never see the vills combo draw.
Of course anyone sane does. Being fortunate enough to get dealt AA when someone else gets KK is a huge variance run good. That's is why losing with AA in this particular spot is also so hard even though 80:20s don't typically qualify as horrendous bad beats.
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Old Yesterday, 08:42 PM   #5031
genghiskan
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

Speaking of AA vs KK

In the first 4,000 hours of live poker, I had never lost with AA vs KK aipf for more than 100bb . Conversely, I had never won with KK vs AA aipf for more than 100bb.

Then both happened two days apart last year.

The pain of losing with AA vs KK was far greater than the pleasure of winning with KK vs AA and I feel very fortunate that I had been spared of that pain for as long as I did.
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Old Yesterday, 09:13 PM   #5032
cannabusto
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

The pain is always greater than the reciprocal pleasure. And not just in poker. Perhaps an evolutionary thing.

Here's another tale of life variance for the thread. Let me caveat by saying this is in no way a veiled brag. I wish I had better work ethic growing up.

I was born quite smart. It was apparent very early. I did great in school with no effort. Didn't study for SAT/ACT. Got into a good college. Didn't study for the GRE. Got a full ride to grad school. Did well with much less effort than others put in. Got my Masters.

My degrees are in sociology. Original plan was to become a professor but I learned that it was impossible to get a tenure track job in my sub-area, so I ditched the PhD plan. It was 2011. Getting a job was ****ing hard, especially for a sociology guy.

My Mom got me an interview for a consulting job at her company. I got it because I learned data analysis in grad school which was becoming hot at the time in industry. Bink. Still, no way I get a look from them without a connect.

Job was a total joke. Impossibly easy. Though I get the sense that that's pervasive, if not the norm, in the white collar world.

I now work as a data scientist and do work hard and know my ****. But it's been a never ending string of run good up to now. My natural intelligence and privileged upbringing has gotten me to the top 1 percent of lives of living humans.

That's why I genuinely mean it when I say "good luck" to my opponents after getting it in good on the felt. I already have it.
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Old Yesterday, 09:18 PM   #5033
iamallin
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

Aa running into kk is one type of positive variance.

Aa holding versus kk is another type of positive variance

The 2nd type of positive variance is easily ignored. You didn't deserve to win the whole pot but you won the whole pot.
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Old Yesterday, 09:25 PM   #5034
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2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

Quote:
Originally Posted by DGAF View Post
It's not easy to let go of ego (I know, currently playing off of coins in the couch), but it can happen gradually ime.

On EGO:
I guess listening to DGAF’s podcasts, many of y’all were basically good for your player pool out the gate.

For me, I was the worst. I was the fish of my pool and while luck helped mask a bit early, I got mowed down enough to learn I was terrible. So to even getgud I had to admit I was terrible and learn. And by bad, I lost at Bally’s 1/3 when I first started playing in 06 (for those who aren’t aware Bally’s Ac 1/3 was the easiest, juiciest 1/3 game to ever consistently run in one casino. It made other llsnl fishfests of the time look like they were seating DGAF and Doug Polk. And it ran for Years).

Later, after knowing how to play, When I lost too much BR on a 5T shot, it was back to 1/3 for me.

So I might be a big dude w a crass sense of humor, and I may come off as having a large ego. But at the end of the day, if I believed the ego, I’d still be a lifetime poker donater (which as discussed may have made me better at everything else in life).

In a way I’m surprised a bunch of guys better then me at poker have too much ego to drop down when required. It’s not fun, but it is what it is, and action is action.




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Old Yesterday, 11:49 PM   #5035
borg23
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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Originally Posted by DGAF View Post
Agreed. And you two sound nothing like the average "high stakes" pro lol.

It can both me true that poker pro-ing is good for you two, but a terrible idea in general. I say this because I try to focus on the rule (vs the exception) itt, and I think the recent gap might be that I'm debating with outliers.


i 100 % agree with this.
i still think it's a terrible idea in general for 99.9% of the population.
i'm just at a point in poker where i'm at peace with whatever happens today, this week this month etc results wise. in the end i'll get the money. what i'm not ok with is playing bad or making mistakes and not learning from them to get better.if i lose thousands next time i'll play i'll sleep like a baby assuming i played well. if i for example went into the pit and lost 50 dollars playing some dumb ass house game i can't beat i would be disgusted with myself.
most people aren't wired like this .

and honestly i've done really well the last couple of years live, and most of the time i wish i was somewhere else outside of the poker room. a lot of the people i'm around make me sick and poker is pretty boring at this point.realistically if i was 5 years younger i probably wouldn't be playing poker. i got into it at the right time.i would not want to start from the bottom in 2018- there just isn't much upside.

i have told several real life friends not to pursue it for different reasons. some listened some didn't. the ones who tried all failed.
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Old Yesterday, 11:59 PM   #5036
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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Originally Posted by borg23 View Post
.... what i'm not ok with is playing bad or making mistakes and not learning from them to get better.if i lose thousands next time i'll play i'll sleep like a baby assuming i played well......
There is a balance here though and being able to let yourself off the hook for making occasional errors is pretty important too. If you don't it is very easy to become a self loather and end up with incredible anxiety.
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Old Today, 12:02 AM   #5037
borg23
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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Stop ****ting on people's dreams man!

When you got 12 zillion in with AA vs KK the other day it was all superb play on your part imo. GJ, you should write upswing a letter thanking them. And you should def pat yourself on the back.

When the pot got pushed to the other dude though (after he complained about running bad when he saw your cards- even though he's a new pro and therefore prob has run 94th percentile or so lifetime), idk man, did you really do all you could do in preparation of that hand?

Have some accountability, Sean.
hahah

this reminds me of joe hachem.

a year after he won the main by sucking out over and over he got all in pre with ak vs aa in the next main event. the hand played itself.

when he saw his opponents AA he had the audacity to complain about his bad luck.
he then proceeded to flop a straight.

what skill!
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Old Today, 12:15 AM   #5038
borg23
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Re: 2k- a poker story (wtmfl;dr obv)

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There is a balance here though and being able to let yourself off the hook for making occasional errors is pretty important too. If you don't it is very easy to become a self loather and end up with incredible anxiety.
agreed. like i said i want to learn from it.

i lost last night. i was totally buried and got about 70 pct of it back i am totally fine with how i played EXCEPT there was one hand where my gut told me to pile the river where i was pretty sure a guy had weak trips, i was betting all the way and got a good river card to bluff. but i also had a bluff catcher. my brain said you have a bluff catcher- the problem was i had all of the reasonable draw hands (it was a paired flop vs a complete idiot in plo) so he basically could only have garbage trips. he would also call for sure for a half potish bet with this hand but would fold such a hand to a pot sized bet.i am not being results oriented here i was 80 pct sure this was his hand.

i'm mad at myself for not betting big.he might have called- i i potted and he called with his hand i would still feel better about my play since i think it was the right play and i pussied out.
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