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Medium-High Stakes Full Ring Discussion of $400+ pot-limit and no-limit and 5/10 live texas hold'em full ring games, situations and strategies

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Old 05-07-2017, 12:22 PM   #1
pocketzeroes
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2/5 - Thinking about bluff shipping 440BBs

I'm going to leave hero's hand out of this. Let's just say I probably shouldn't have called preflop (but did bc of stack depth) and I don't block any aces.

Villain is a middle aged/50s or so white guy playing fairly snug, but loosening up at this table which has had a couple of whales (one of which just left table) creating constant action.

Hero hasn't gotten much out of line at all. It's been mostly impossible with the action the table is generating.

Button (deep/covers table) - lag. One of the whales who has been consistently stacking the other whale
Villain ($2200) - SB
Hero ($2300) - MP

Preflop:
Hero raises to $25. Button calls. Villain raises to $100. Hero calls and button calls. At this point, I think villain has KK+ most of the time. I've seen him limp/call AK a few times. I don't think he plays that hand or smaller pairs aggressively from the blinds.

Flop ($300):
Qh7s4h
Villain bets $300. Hero calls. Button folds. (At this point, I have villain almost squarely on AA; I just don't think he pots with any JJ-KK hand).

Turn ($900):
6d
Villain bets $300. Hero calls. (The same bet size is consistent with AA; I've seen him do this with overpairs previously).

River ($1500):
5s
Villain bets $300 and has $1200 behind. My decision is to bluff shove the river or fold.

Questions:
Do you think a villain like this is folding to a river shove often enough to make a bluff profitable? Do same-sized turn and river bets make you feel like he's more likely to fold to a raise? Is this such an "obvious" spot to bluff that villains are more likely to call, or do they always fold simply because of the 4 to a straight?

As I was deciding what to do on the river, I mostly came to the conclusion that I should have raised turn (even minraise) if I wanted to credibly shove this river. Thoughts?
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Old 05-07-2017, 01:08 PM   #2
lolposting2016
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Re: 2/5 - Thinking about bluff shipping 440BBs

Wat are ur cards. Why do you think raising turn is good
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Old 05-07-2017, 01:16 PM   #3
pocketzeroes
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Re: 2/5 - Thinking about bluff shipping 440BBs

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Originally Posted by lolposting2016 View Post
Wat are ur cards. Why do you think raising turn is good
Ok, I didn't think my cards were too important, but I had 97hh. Raising turn would make it harder for villain to call a lot of river ships IMO, which I would then do on at least any 3, 5, 8 or Q, maybe 6 (in addition to a 9, 7 or heart for value). It's not that it really makes sense that of those cards (3/5/8/Q/6) helped me after raising turn, but it makes it so that villain sees more ways that my hand can be best.

Last edited by pocketzeroes; 05-07-2017 at 01:30 PM.
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Old 05-07-2017, 03:47 PM   #4
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Re: 2/5 - Thinking about bluff shipping 440BBs

He'd probably call.. I'd never do it.
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Old 05-07-2017, 05:12 PM   #5
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Re: 2/5 - Thinking about bluff shipping 440BBs

Fold river. It's 2/5 live and no one folds, like ever.

I've learned this the hard way.
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Old 05-07-2017, 06:42 PM   #6
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Re: 2/5 - Thinking about bluff shipping 440BBs

Pre is fine with 97hh this deep

Kinda sucks that he bet $300 again on the river. I agree his mostly likely holding is KK+. The problem is that he's only got $1200 left so the problem is I think villain levels himself into a call a lot of the time. He's calling $1200 to win a pot of $3300ish

Also given his huge flop bet we really don't have that many 8x or 3x and villain is probably incorrectly assuming you wouldn't shove worse than a straight for value.

In reality, it's a good spot for us to shove 2p+.
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Old 05-07-2017, 07:17 PM   #7
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Re: 2/5 - Thinking about bluff shipping 440BBs

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Originally Posted by Jarretman View Post
Pre is fine with 97hh this deep
It's pretty bad if you know he has a big pair and don't know how much money he'll put in postflop on various boards.
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Old 05-07-2017, 07:20 PM   #8
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Re: 2/5 - Thinking about bluff shipping 440BBs

Never folding pre

Shipping is fine if you think he's good enough to fold. I'd prefer more obvious "bad" boards like when a front door flush comes in or something
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Old 05-07-2017, 07:38 PM   #9
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Re: 2/5 - Thinking about bluff shipping 440BBs

We have a hand that will still be behind on almost 95% of flops. There's not much that can make up for that type of disadvantage.
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Old 05-07-2017, 07:53 PM   #10
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Re: 2/5 - Thinking about bluff shipping 440BBs

River shove is very spewy, especially when hearts miss. You almost never have a 3 here besides A3hh, and there aren't too many 8x in your range either besides 98hh/108hh.

Pre is a little too loose. Suited one-gappers are just too weak from EP, and if you're opening something like 20% from MP, you're going to get exploited and 3-bet a ton by good players behind you that are IP & deep.

Last edited by Minatorr; 05-07-2017 at 08:02 PM.
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Old 05-07-2017, 08:01 PM   #11
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Re: 2/5 - Thinking about bluff shipping 440BBs

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Originally Posted by soah View Post
We have a hand that will still be behind on almost 95% of flops. There's not much that can make up for that type of disadvantage.
+1.

You're at a positional & card disadvantage. I don't know why live players are in love with suited hands, esp one-gappers or further.
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Old 05-07-2017, 10:50 PM   #12
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2/5 - Thinking about bluff shipping 440BBs

Quote:
Originally Posted by soah View Post
We have a hand that will still be behind on almost 95% of flops. There's not much that can make up for that type of disadvantage.


I'm happily calling this deep ip vs a face up hand vs a tight player

Being behind 95% of the time doesn't matter much when we hit every flop iykwim

Honestly I've been doing this for years and years and it's massively +EV you just need the stones to stick it all in with zero equity
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Old 05-08-2017, 09:13 AM   #13
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Re: 2/5 - Thinking about bluff shipping 440BBs

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Originally Posted by Minatorr View Post
River shove is very spewy, especially when hearts miss. You almost never have a 3 here besides A3hh, and there aren't too many 8x in your range either besides 98hh/108hh.

Pre is a little too loose. Suited one-gappers are just too weak from EP, and if you're opening something like 20% from MP, you're going to get exploited and 3-bet a ton by good players behind you that are IP & deep.
not many people at 2/5 are capable of light 3betting. I'm never worried getting 3betting exploited in live poker 5/10 and below.
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Old 05-08-2017, 09:23 AM   #14
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Re: 2/5 - Thinking about bluff shipping 440BBs

Folding pre is fine if you're not willing to exploit villains extremely tight and condensed range.

Which is really easy with a spr of 10ish
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Old 05-08-2017, 10:15 AM   #15
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Re: 2/5 - Thinking about bluff shipping 440BBs

pre is fine. if you arent defending suited connectors, what are you defending? you cant just fold everything to a 3bet, and these are the perfect hands to defend with. I can see the argument for just open folding, but once you raise I think you have to call a 3bet. Also live you can get away with opening a tad looser bc players suck IMO

If you've played with V and know he can actually fold I think its a good spot to shove. he is getting 3 to 1, but most of these players are just gonna think "wow $1200 is a big bet".
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Old 05-08-2017, 12:06 PM   #16
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Re: 2/5 - Thinking about bluff shipping 440BBs

Yea it's a fold pre.

If btn hadn't called our initial raise, if we had 98s, if 3better had a wider range, or if we hadn't of 5x'd initially, these would all be reasons to call.

But what's gonna happen most of the time is we are gonna go 3 ways sandwiched with a 9 high gapper and not be able to continue even when we flop top pair.
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Old 05-08-2017, 02:09 PM   #17
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Re: 2/5 - Thinking about bluff shipping 440BBs

Quote:
Originally Posted by diskoteque View Post
I'm happily calling this deep ip vs a face up hand vs a tight player

Being behind 95% of the time doesn't matter much when we hit every flop iykwim

Honestly I've been doing this for years and years and it's massively +EV you just need the stones to stick it all in with zero equity
I was specifically addressing the situation in this hand, in which the OP doesn't know if his opponent is capable of folding or under which conditions it might happen (we know this because he wouldn't have posted the thread at all if he knew the answers to these questions). In this hand he even got one of the few flops that gave him a great equity and he just called twice to try to make a winner. It's simply not profitable to play fit-or-fold with 97s against a suspected big pair, almost regardless of stack sizes. Obviously if you know that your opponent has a hand that he's unwilling to stack off with on most runouts then your options are wide open. Though you still have to take into account that we're not closing the action preflop and we also have a loose fish behind us that we have to deal with.

Last edited by soah; 05-08-2017 at 02:17 PM.
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Old 05-08-2017, 02:14 PM   #18
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Re: 2/5 - Thinking about bluff shipping 440BBs

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pre is fine. if you arent defending suited connectors, what are you defending? you cant just fold everything to a 3bet, and these are the perfect hands to defend with. I can see the argument for just open folding, but once you raise I think you have to call a 3bet. Also live you can get away with opening a tad looser bc players suck IMO

If you've played with V and know he can actually fold I think its a good spot to shove. he is getting 3 to 1, but most of these players are just gonna think "wow $1200 is a big bet".
If your opponent only threebets KK and AA then of course you can fold everything to a threebet. If you're facing a wider range then you should start by adding pocket pairs and hands with good high card strength. 97s is trash.
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Old 05-08-2017, 02:20 PM   #19
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Re: 2/5 - Thinking about bluff shipping 440BBs

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarretman View Post
Folding pre is fine if you're not willing to exploit villains extremely tight and condensed range.

Which is really easy with a spr of 10ish
closer to 7 than 10
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Old 05-08-2017, 06:18 PM   #20
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Re: 2/5 - Thinking about bluff shipping 440BBs

Quote:
Originally Posted by soah View Post
I was specifically addressing the situation in this hand, in which the OP doesn't know if his opponent is capable of folding or under which conditions it might happen (we know this because he wouldn't have posted the thread at all if he knew the answers to these questions). In this hand he even got one of the few flops that gave him a great equity and he just called twice to try to make a winner. It's simply not profitable to play fit-or-fold with 97s against a suspected big pair, almost regardless of stack sizes. Obviously if you know that your opponent has a hand that he's unwilling to stack off with on most runouts then your options are wide open. Though you still have to take into account that we're not closing the action preflop and we also have a loose fish behind us that we have to deal with.


Fair enough all very good points
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Old 05-08-2017, 06:51 PM   #21
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Re: 2/5 - Thinking about bluff shipping 440BBs

pre is std. now jam
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Old 05-08-2017, 06:58 PM   #22
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Re: 2/5 - Thinking about bluff shipping 440BBs

Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
Yea it's a fold pre.

If btn hadn't called our initial raise, if we had 98s, if 3better had a wider range, or if we hadn't of 5x'd initially, these would all be reasons to call.

But what's gonna happen most of the time is we are gonna go 3 ways sandwiched with a 9 high gapper and not be able to continue even when we flop top pair.
we are 500bb deep though vs two fish and a transparent 3beting range. We have HUGE IO. I disagree.
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Old 05-08-2017, 09:27 PM   #23
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Re: 2/5 - Thinking about bluff shipping 440BBs

Of course our hole cards matter, positing this without it is silly. Shove turn, now shove river.
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Old 05-09-2017, 12:28 AM   #24
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Re: 2/5 - Thinking about bluff shipping 440BBs

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Originally Posted by soah View Post
closer to 7 than 10

I didn't factor that button called also (and that he's likely to call), my bad. I guess it's a bit closer to a fold than j thought but it's so easy to play against such a condensed range post.

FWIW I still think calling the 3bet pre is fine

Also yeah shoving turn might be ok; he only needs to fold a small % for it to be +EV
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Old 05-09-2017, 01:17 AM   #25
lolposting2016
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Re: 2/5 - Thinking about bluff shipping 440BBs

Pre tbh is prolly a fold. You don't close the action and don't have position guaranteed vs the 4x. You can leave out smaller suited one gappers from ur defending range from the mp. From the button it's a rly easy call but your gonna lose too much $ w this hand on
Avg. when I'm playing bad/ tilted I just auto click call here but prettt sure folding best.
Anyway do think jamming river is pretty nice.

Last edited by lolposting2016; 05-09-2017 at 01:22 AM.
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