Live 2-5 NL game. Game is 7 handed.

Villain literally just sat down with $1500 and this is his second hand.

Takes on villain: white, early 40's, it is 11:30 pm which is late to this game as it is not in a casino and closes at 3 am, has said he is from "LA" and he heard the action is good at this room (we are in Texas). Wearing a Mayweather Money hat and has a decent watch.

Hero (BB) 99: $980
Villain (HJ): covers

folds to Villain in HJ who opens to $20, fold, fold, sb folds, Hero raises to $75, villain calls.

Pot ($152) Flop is Q75 Hero bets $100, villain calls.

Pot ($352) Turn is Q Hero bets $250, villain raises to $750

Call or fold?

Thanks for the input.

I prefer a call pre.

Playing against an unknown, out of position, with an inflated pot, with 99 isn't easy.

I chose to 3 bet because playing oop with 99 is tough. I wanted the initiative in the hand and also to try to fold out his offsuit J10, Q10, etc, combos that have equity against 99. Not saying I am correct, just telling you my thought pattern.

So you were looking for a fold, taking your opponents 20$ and moving to the next hand?

I'd also call pre but I've discovered I'm in the minority

Ideally.

Why bet the turn? Opening action is dangerous as we see. As played, I doubt he is making this raise with 22-AA. Bluffs don't make huge sense other than like A9d+. He likely has queen.. diamonds can scare anyone in a big pot there to raise for value and protection

Gotta make a tough fold here. But it's close

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Assuming he is fairly capable, I can see him with KQs or QJs, maybe all of the AQ's. I like your point that his raise is based on the diamond draw. Barring a fear of my range containing diamonds, why would he raise with a queen? He will fold out all my non-diamond draws and hands he crushes (like 99). Wouldn't villain want to keep those hand in my range?

Does having the initiative change if you bet flop or not btw?

I think im in the call pre camp vs unknown but also 99 is on the line of hands where I think its still strong enough to flat OOP and you can ch/call vs what is probably going to be an "agro" player based on description. (the type that thinks the game is about dick sizes and big bluffs etc etc) but thats a snap judgement.

That above though makes me agree w/ the raise being completely absurd and not an actual Q but I still like to get confirmation through other means before i start making "sick reads" on how they think/play.

So I probably fold this time and assume the following instead of the above optimistic approach which is: he has to give you credit for at least a Q which I dont understand how he expects you to fold a Q there.

On the thought of villain be afraid of me having diamonds, the only diamonds I will should have are AK of diamonds because I 3 bet. He could include A2. - A5s of diamonds if he thinks I am polarized.

I am still on the fence about the 3 bet pre. I just felt like if I called basically I have a bluff catcher on most flops and his range will be super wide. I thought the 3 bet would narrow his range and get him to fold some hands that have decent equity against 99. So if we just call pre are we just check calling the whole way?

Villain's 3B calling range has more nutted hands {55,77, QJs,KQ,AQ = 24 combos} than in your 3B pre range {QQ,AQ = 9 combos}

Given that there is no history between you two, I'm going to proceed with the general assumption of live poker where people don't aggressively play their draws and discount the possibility he's trying to make you fold with a AdXd hand, or a combo straight/flush draw...

I'd fold.

I like the 3 bet preflop, and the sizing of it. I like the flop bet. I like betting the turn, but would choose a smaller size. The pot is 350, I think I would bet 175 so half pot, where it's a bit easier to call a raise. We don't have any diamonds which makes me want to call a bit more on the turn, though is he really turning a diamond draw into a bluff here? I think the Q is such a good turn card for you, I can't imagine folding vs anyone semi competent, though there are plenty nits I play with who this is an instand fold against. Being an unknown, I call and see a river, planning on calling on most blanks and evaluating and probably folding if it's a diamond.