Goofyballer's thread on the odds of hitting the flop hard with suited connectors:
Suited Connectors, Implied Odds, and You (Theory/Math)
The part that stands out to me is that you'll flop a strong made hand 5.6% of the time:
Odds of flopping...
Flush: 0.84%
Two pair: 2%
Trips: 1.35%
Full house: 0.09%
Quads: 0.01%
Straight: 1.31%
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Total: 5.6% (1 in 18 times, 17:1)
And you'll hit a monster combo draw 3.1% of the time.
Odds of flopping...
20 outer (OESD + FD + pair): 0.077%
17 outer (Gutshot + FD + pair): 0.153%
15 outer (OESD + flush draw): 1.424%
14 outer (Pair + flush draw): 1.450%
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Total: 3.104% (1 in 32 times, 31:1)
That suggests to me that you'll only crush the flop about 8.7% of the time - further justification for only calling preflop if stacks are deep enough to offer decent implied odds.
Its also why I say that if you're calling a $12 raise from a stack of less than $300, then you need to be able to have other ways to win rather than just calling down hoping to hit your hand. For example it helps if:
- our image is so nitty, we think villain will potentially fold TPTK or an overpair to a semi-bluff raise from us if we hit our monster-draw; and
- we are prepared to stack-off with monster draws (raise/folding is a major mistake when stacks are small relative to the pot); or
- our image is so fishy that we could potentially call flop and turn, hit our hand and still get paid for all the monies; or
- we think villain may often just cbet the flop and then check/fold to a bet on the turn.
Last edited by Nogyong; 02-10-2018 at 11:05 PM.