I'm trying to learn hand reading and doing some range analysis with flopzilla. This is my second try. I would love to hear feedback whether I'm doing it correctly? Feedback for the hand is welcome also.

hand: As7s
position: Sb
Stack 450
blinds 2.5/2.5

V is tight recreational player. Has shown some signs of potentially being weak tight but not 100% sure. H is tight recreational player, up 100.

Pre: V (covers H) opens to 10 from ep. we assigning him a roughly tight range of 10% consisting of AA-22,AK-AJ,KQ. 2 calls in between h calls from sb.
Flop (40) ks6dkh: H checks. Pre aggressor bets 20. we set his range now to contain pairs above bottom pair+ but exclude the absolute nuts, so AA,QQ-77,AK,KQ (4,63%). Reasoning being he would check with KK, 66 and AJ, AQ. It gets folded to h. h check-raises to 47.5. Reasoning for the check-raise is the board texture + the above range has 66% hands below tp which we can assume V folds reasonably often given his tight image. V calls the check-raise, however and we narrow his range to AA,AK,KQ. Should we keep QQ, potentially JJ in his range?
Turn (135) 8s: h checks. Reasoning for the check is we now have actual equity and don't want to bloat the pot and hope to see river cheap or free. V bets 45 giving H 1:4 which provides almost immediate odds given the 17.5% equity vs the tight range. H calls.
River (225) 6s: h checks. V bets 120. H folds. H has 17,6% equity, e.g. our hand beats only AA, so the call would be pretty stupid. If we add QQ to Vs range, the call would be ok, given the 8:23 pot odds and 39% equity, or in layman terms we beat AA and QQ.

TBH, this hand is a mess from the beginning. An EP raise in LLSNL is much tighter than 10% for a tight rec player. If you made it 5%, that would be fairly loose and it could be as tight as QQ+, AK. OOP, you should be mucking A7s pf. At best, you're going to win the pot with a bet. Any action, you're beat.

You're never going to crush live poker with this kind of analysis and play.

First off, you're way off base with you're opening ranges which instantly means the rest of everything you are trying to calculate is worthless.

Secondly, you arent playing robots in live poker. You have no idea how often or with which hands certain people Cbet. You need actual live reads for that. Not some kind of number crunching that you did in advance. Lots of people would Cbet that flop with AJ, and they would be correct because they have the best hand most of the time....however most people aren't aggro enough to even raise AJ in EP so again, your entire analysis is worthless if you dont know that.

Thirdly, most live players would not check raise that flop with a K from the SB, so your range of hands that the villain can call the check raise is also way off.

Lastly, Hero is not a tight player if hes calling EP raises from the SB with A7s.

Opening range is too loose for a typical tight EP open, something around 5% is more typical. The shape will vary a bit also, they will often have AQo but fold AJs and where they cut the line on pairs varies. Live poker opponents don't follow some mathematical model of the optimal range. If villain is good they bet 66 on this flop. It's better to represent a KX hand and hope somebody else has one.

You are right that villain has more hands that don't connect with this flop then do. But villain isn't likely to give up many pairs to a flop raise. Your raise looks highly out of place and paired boards often causes strange play so bluffs will be looked up more. Turn call is meh, you picked up an unexpected draw but your not drawing to the nuts on a paired board. On the river, who knows? Your hand is highly unexpected but you don't beat much anymore. This is where you need some actual read on villain's play rather then a mechanical range analysis.

Also, don't call A7s out of the SB. When you play ace-rag suited you really need to hit the flop hard for it to be profitable. Even two pair isn't fat value because it will be counterfeited too often.

I'm a bit after reading your reply (and others which seem to say the same). Could you shed some light on the below questions?

You mean a tight recreational player opens 1 hand every 20 orbit from ep? e.g. given 30 hands/hour that means 1 hand every 7 hours? This would be a nit in my definition. Also, 5% range is basically, AA,KK,QQ,AK(s),AQ(s) + KQ(s) or AJ(s), or if it's more pocket-pair heavy AA-99,AK(s), AQ(s). Is this generally considered loose play from ep?

Also don't we want to see a 4way flop (although OOP) with these odds (7.5:35) even if it's for building more loose image, sometimes GII when we hit and sometimes steal the pot from tight Vs with a c/r. Is this a leaky strategy in the long run?

Looking forward to hear your opinion and learn more.

"Tight" players do not open 22 to 66 in EP. They don't in LLSNL because they do not play well enough post-flop for these hands to be profitable as part of their range. So most of them adjust by removing these hands from their raising range.

Also you missed a key part of what venice said, "an EP raise."

Yes and no. Yes if you have already gotten to the skill level to be able to do that.

No if you have not.

For 99.9% of LLSNL players (that .1% should really move up), the answer is a hard no. Implied odds is usually a lot lower than you think and reversed implied odds is usually a lot higher than you think.

That sounds absurdly tight at first glance but remember there is more then 1 EP seat. UTG, UTG+1 and UTG+2 gives them 3 chances and something around 1 orbit in 6 is about right.

A-rag suited are some of the worst hands for calling OOP. Your good flops are typically flush draws and two pair. The flush draws are hard to play or get paid on OOP and the two pair hands are vulnerable to being counterfeited. When you flop one pair you will end up giving up equity a lot because you have no idea if you have the best single pair or not.

The sort of range based stealing you are talking about generally doesn't work live. It works online because you can precisely determine the ranges everybody is on and the other players are unlikely to call down. Live they will call based on reads, perception and generally sticky tendencies. So you have to barrel more to make it work and that will get you killed when your wrong.

Just to address the most glaring points:

1. UTG open range is weighted towards higher pairs and suited overcards. I would mostly exclude 22-66 from the open range. "10%" also includes AJo and A9s, KTs , and KQo, and most actually tight players won't be opening those hands UTG.

2. Your flop raise is button clicking with 0 fold equity because of poor sizing.

3. Turn and river should both be calls, because the hands that beat you on the river also beat you on the turn (only exception being pocket 6s) If you are going to fold nut flushes to boats on the river, you should also be folding flush draws to a range of boats and sets on the turn.

In my game I'd be surprised to see tight players opening EP any wider than TT+ AQ+ AJs+ KQs.

Live players, particularly the more recreational ones, often have open limping ranges. Typically 99-22 ATs- SC S1G S2G etc. These players are usually very strong when they actually raise. Have you observed this villain open limp?

A lot of recreational live players will not be betting into 3 players with air or their weaker holdings. They'll stretch to semibluffs with OESD or FDs but here none are available. I make a mental note if I see a player betting their weakest pairs or air.

So when V bets this flop I'd be putting him on TT+ absent any read that he's bluffy. I wouldn't expect him to fold AA-TT to a X/R. People are always a bit suspicious you don't have it on paired boards and you flatting out of the blinds after two callers preflop and then X/R flop marks you down as extra unlikely to hold KX here.

+1