Hero BTN with Jh9h - $950

Villain - covers - he is a reg and used to play online. He likes to attack dry boards, and raises flush draws, top pairs, sets, 2 pairs - pretty wide raising range. He has bluffed a few rivers, but also seems to call me lighter than the AVG person.

1 limp
Hero goes $25 on BTN
Villain shrug calls
limper calls


$75
Jd3h2d

Villain checks
limper checks
Hero $50
Villain $125
limper folds
Hero calls

We have a back door flush draw, and we are most likely against a flush draw or a top pair better kicker. He could also of called with a hand like Jc3c in the SB because he was stuck and getting a decent price vs 2 players and he is deep enough but I highly doubt it. He probably wouldn't be check raising a set, but it's not out of the question.

Turn 9s
Villain leads $175
Hero has about $775 left

Just jam now. Theres like $500 in the pot. He hates it when we jam when he has a flush draw. Good for us.
The flop call by us is more questionable. Puts us in a ton of tough spots ott. Like what if turn came a blank and he fires $175? We cant rly jam anymore and we either fold or passively call and hope another blank hits the river, and HOPE he checks, or hope that hes bluffing again and that we are good. A lot of things have to go right imo. So i think i can find a fold otf

I felt folding flop was just too nitty vs this type of player. If I was going to bet / fold flop I might as well not even bet. He has the tendency to be a bit of a blaster, but usually with equity like flush draws or straight draws.

Flop bet typically too large

Seems like calling ott is >>> raising

Flop call is standard against this type of villain, plenty of diamond draws that he's x/r with.

I'm just calling the turn here. You're right that stacks are awkward, so it's either a call or a shove. I'm not in love with a shove here, as I don't think he's calling with anything worse here. He's folding all draws and snap-calling a set.

I'll take position to the river and call off any bet if non-diamond. Will evaluate if river is a diamond or A/6.

I like a call on the turn if you think he'd bluff rivers that miss him. His hand feels like 54/64dd or set 22/33. Calling any non-diamond river most likely.

I would check-back that flop. There is some merit to raising to prevent hands like 2 overs to realize their equity... But, you don't really want to build up a big pot with that hand either so I think that VS a tricky player I'd just check back to keep the pot small with a medium strength hand.
AP: I would call turn to let him barrel off his missed draws on the river and obviously look to call most revers except for diamonds and maybe an A( which brings an obvious wheel and some possible 2 pair hands on the board).
We also don't know his stack size to see if he could fold a FD if we shove or if he's pot committed anyway. If so there's really no reason for raising imo.

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Check back flop a lot with this hand.

As played easy shove.

but why??

if J9 isn't in our raising range here, then we are basically playing this spot as a call with 100% of our range, which is highly exploitable. if you want to call turn bc we will fold out too many of his bad hands by raising, then you're saying this is a good bluff spot. if that's the case, then you still need to put some of the top of your range into your turn raising raising range to keep from overbluffing or getting into too many spots where vill can bet to induce and snap you off all the time.

a call has RIO here. there's no guarantee he's going to barrel off on the river when he misses (granted it may be more likely than an unknown). however, he's absolutely going to ship it when he hits. that means that a river A, diamond, and any card 6 and under are all very bad cards for us (K isn't great either). he's going to have a profitable shove on all these cards with his range (whether he has it or not) and we are going to be playing a guessing game.

this shove can get called by worse: he has all the combo draws (A3s, A4s, A5s, A9s, KQs, KTs, QTs, 65s, 64s, 54s); he has AA-QQ some non-zero percentage of the time; he also has all the AJ combos and will call with them some % of the time; he may also talk himself into a call with other JX hands.

think this is a pretty clear shove.

This is a shove on the turn. We are stacking off to sets on the river regardless unless a scare card comes, so we should attempt to deny him equity those times when he has combo draws. Just calling and then folding scare cards on the river is basically giving him a freeroll and only makes sense if he is bluffing 100% of the time he misses, which seems high.

+1.

I don't love shoving this turn because I think he's got AJ a fair amount of the time, and probably going to fold. I don't love calling because I think he is going to show up with plenty of FDs.

Maybe we can click it back? Like make it 400. Give him some rope to hang himself and ship on us? It is a pretty disgusting spot, though, if he flats and then shoves a flushing river, or when we pay him off for hitting some other combo draw out.

I vote shove turn - it's easy to flop draws and hard to flop sets.

he's going to call with AJ sometimes too though. nobody at 2/5 folds TPTK on a board with this many draws 100% of the time. nor should they.

Games I play, most villains will give you at least one free pass in a spot like this, and will fold any one pair hand to a shove (given they haven't seen you do anything crazy, or other people haven't told them you're a maniac). Of course, there are some players who are going to call a shove with TPTK close to 100% against anybody.

But are the people who are going to give you credit you shove the turn the same people who are going to raise the flop with AJ?
Probably not.

What kind of player are you? Do you go off feel or based on a hand-vs-distribution approach?

How balanced is your tiny-raise vs. shove strategy on the turn here?

If you're jamming every single time you're in this spot, observant opponents with weaker hands will always fold. You could pick up extra bets from a few bluff-draws (thinking A4s, 45s, sometimes KTs or even QTs), and the pair plus diamond draws (A3s being the most likely).

By raising small occasionally, you can pick up some fold equity when villain's bluffing with a strong diamond draw. Let's say they call the raise with a draw and miss on the river, villain is likely going to check, which allows you to check back and get to showdown without throwing your whole stack in the pot.

Against players who love chasing draws, I'd be more inclined to shove on the turn and make them pay the max to hit their draw.

2/10 times, I'm going to min-raise and fold in this spot if everything in my gut is telling me I've run into a set.

The advice in this post is so bad it gave me cancer.

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The thing about his sizing is it's pretty weakish for a big hand, and really I expect big draws to bet more or not raise at all (for FE).

The 125 flop to 175 turn is what sticks out the most. I feel like when we click it back, it might be interpreted to him as if we're essentially saying - hey your bet wasn't that big, I think you're not really that strong. It might get a snap jam out of him in a spot that he's folding to shoves (maybe even hands like KJ and QJ... and even if he's got a 14 out draw, we strongly prefer that he gii on the turn over a fold).

Pretend pretty hard to think about folding and then call.

Agree with posts ITT about betting smaller and checking both being options.

reread the OP:

"He has bluffed a few rivers, but also seems to call me lighter than the AVG person."

this makes it a must shove.

Results

Not a good result for us if villain really did have AJ...

I actually kind of like this idea, but I am commiting to calling a river bet regardless of weather the flush or straight comes in..... I think this is a decent way to get paid by single j's and not necessarily lose the stack if the villan is on a draw that turns up..... I feel like villan will flat and check river pretty often here, so if a scare card comes in we might get to showdown without having to gii..

I can see merits to a call also, again commiting to call any river bet...

Jam im not a huge fan of here, feel like villan would probably check turn in the hope of realising his equity a decent % of the time....and this feels weighted to a made hand....aj/kj....

Just want to say I posted this before seeing that results had been posted.....feel a bit silly now

pretty sure this means he didn't have AJ