Online hand. 2/4, 100bb effective with villain in CO who’s a very good pro.

CO pro opens to $12, BTN (50bb) calls, Hero calls 88 in BB.

Flop ($38): T74dd
Everyone checks.

Turn ($38): 8h
Hero checks, CO bets $28, BTN folds, Hero ?

I could definitely just lead turn but decided to go for the xr, but CO’s betsizing threw me off.

Firstly, he would cbet all his strong hands (overpairs, TP, sets, 2p and possibly even 99, strong 7x) and semi-bluffs like FDs/SDs OTF.

The turn cannot improve him to 2p (T8s, 87s) mostly since I block them heavily.

The only bluff that makes sense is some 9x combo like A9-Q9s but it’s questionable if he would even delay cbet that into two opponents.

On the other hand, J9s or 96s (and sometimes even 65s that didn’t cbet flop) are all plausible hands in a pro’s range that would play this way, all of which we unblock.

He’s also very capable of bet/folding strong hands, so in the unlikely scenario where he turned 2p like 87s, he could fold that to a xr, because honestly, I don’t think he thinks I have a turn xr bluffing range here (unfortunately).

So when we do xr, he folds out a lot of worse hands and only continues with better, being a very good player.

I will however admit that if he bet any smaller, I wouldn’t ever consider not checkraising to deny equity.

Is it pure MUBS to just call in this spot?

Was the board 2 hearts and 2 diamonds on the turn or just 2 diamonds?

The board just seems to favor your range more than CO just because of the checkback on the flop so villain's turn sizing seems a bit large for his range in general but not that out of line considering straights are still possible in his range.

I'd probably lead the turn just expecting villain to check back more frequently on that turn card than others with value hands and delayed bluffs a like. Plus you get to set the bet size for turn and river.

As played I don't think you can do much wrong besides folding or crai here and now.

x/r. I don't think his sizing is that weird.


x/r more here in general then. Also, This is probably not true.

this
i'm not sure what's supposed to be so weird about this sizing.

It was just 2 diamonds.

I agree that he can size turn big-ish but then isn’t he straight-heavy here rather than some sort of a semi-bluff? Which means I should just call rather than xr and risk my entire stack right?

I just called and block bet half pot on 5x river (4 liner to a straight). He showed up with KK!

Why does a winning reg check KK OTF?

Because he has to fold to a flop X/R or call with the opponent having the ability to rep all flush and straightening cards for stacks AND on a 10-1 SPR board. He also looks capped when he checks back and can bluff catch two streets well or get thin value versus top pair type hands. The same max two streets he would safely get by betting flop anyways.

TLDR the majority of hands that continue on this flop are flush draws/straight draws and some single small pairs, all that will likely X/R and be able to rep every straight and flush draw, even trip draw with you having zero visibility and no more betting initiative.

I think you should have C/R turn. His weird straight draws would continuation bet flop for fold equity. He can station with two pair and overpairs knowing your C/R range has plenty of semi-bluffs.

Your river decision is interesting I think. What was your decision tree for this “block bet”? Were you planning to call a large raise and hoping to induce versus a “good pro”? I guess you are hoping to get called by overpair type hands and targeting them while planning to fold to a raise which I think is a bad line given how a raise would be exclusively the top end straight, maybe nuts only.

I'm confused. The blocker bet would suggest you're specifically targeting overpairs/worse sets/etc. yet you are surprised when that's what he shows up with...meaning you weren't ACTUALLY expecting him to have those hands.

Is there any reason other than pot control that V is checking flop, considering BTN and BB calling range smashes this flop? I can't imagine planning a CR, as that folds out most marginal hands and draws, and only hands that crush you or hands like 56dd or maybe ATdd will call.

If he's bet/folding flop, he's bet/folding turn to my xr as well. I don't think I have enough history with him where he thinks I will xr semi-bluff turn, so my perceived range is >>>KK which means he will be correctly folding 1p hands like KK to my xr.

Regarding the river, I didn't really want to xcall a ~PSB so decided to blockbet/fold knowing he has no bluffs when he raises THIS river, because I can easily have all the straights. Honestly, I couldn't range him at all because from a theoretical perspective, KK should always simply be BET/FOLDING the flop rather than taking this weird line.

This is very opposite to the poker knowledge I've gathered over the years, where the default is to bet/fold KK on these flops, rather than check back fearing a checkraise, and giving free cards to all draws.

Is there any article/video advocating checking overpairs on drawy boards because we don't want to face a xr?

Honestly, I had no clue what he had, like I mentioned in the OP. Common poker logic suggests that all overpairs/worse sets simply bet the flop, so when he doesn't bet the flop, his ~PSB OTT makes no sense to me and I have no idea what he has.

I admit that I wasn't thinking about his range before making my river decision, I simply didn't want to call a large bet so wanted to blockbet/fold because he would never raise the river as a bluff since it favours my range far more than his.

Even if BTN and BB calling ranges smack this flop, I can't imagine having a hand as strong as KK check the flop for pot control. It seems absolutely crazy to give free cards on this texture. I don't get it.

I agree that xraising is pretty marginal OTT vs a good player, which is why I opted for the call and blockbet river line, not expecting to win much more from this nitreg.

I missed it was 50bb effective yea we should be gii here and checking back the flop with that stack size is ridiculous.

It was 100bb eff.

Ah sorry thought it was heads up with shorty.

Assuming he had the Kd I don't hate the checkback. Even then it does seem a little strange that flop is still good for his range or at least doesn't give him much of a disadvantage.

Could be a dynamic with the shorty too where he was hoping button might lead and trap you for a bet.

Correct.. he was probably looking to xr BTN.

I think OP is reading way too much into the sizing.

Can you think of a value hand he bets that big OTT?

The main question is how often Villain has a hand that he will check on the flop but bet for value on the turn.

Unless the answer to that question is "never", then some of the time, that bet will be $28, rather than $19 or whatever you think the optimal sizing is.

In other words, I don't think the sizing is odd enough to really inform your decision about the answer to the main question.

His hand is perfect for two street value. I don't know why his play is so surprising

Why?

Because people are not robots. Sometimes they mix it up intentionally. Sometimes they mix it up unintentionally. Would your sizing in Villain's spot be the same every time, regardless of game dynamic or opponent? If so, that's probably a leak.

All I know is I’m bet folding that flop almost always never checking