Hero is early 30s Caucasian in town for a week, so I am pretty much unknown to the entire table.

Villian(bb) mid late 20s asian tag, hasn't gotten out of line during the 2 hours up until this hand.

Hero (3500) opens J8dd in co 75, sb(7500) call, bb(7500) call.

A109dxx (225~)

SB ck, BB ck, hero bets 175, sb fold, bb call.

5d (575~)
bb ck, hero bets 375, bb calls

7x (1325~),
bb ck, hero? (I have roughly 2800 left).


Would a smaller bet making my hand look like AQ/AK maybe induce him to shove?

Normally would say $900 or so. Would probably focus on value for 2p or big A and not worry too much about inducing.

Forget your river sizing, turn sizing is the issue - 750~ ott

No.

I'd bet anywhere from $900-$1300. If 4 figure bets are rare in this game, then I would bet ~$900. I like betting close to pot in these spots to try and induce hero calls from Ax.

Are you trying to fold weak aces with that sizing?

I can’t really see us ever taking that line with a value hand after betting $175 on the flop.

Why not? We have a range advantage and we're deep enough that we need an overbet to think about getting stacks in.

I'm cool with the overbet on the turn.

If we overbet turn we puke gii when he jams? Are we committing our stack to the bluff if he flats and we miss? Puts us in some ugly spots imo. Played well, doubt we induce very much of his range so just get value. 850 should work.

I don’t love the overbet cuz i think a pot size bet gets Ax to fold anyway. Betting this turn is really strong.

I’d prob go like 475-500.

1500.

Turn is a good spot to overbet for sure.

River id bet close to half pot

I wouldn't overbet turn with this hand. Too much equity that sucks to get check raised.

If he hasn't gotten out of line so far, why do you think he will bluff raise your smaller river bets?

We have more nuts/second nuts than him since he may fold some J8s on turn and never has 86s. I like going just over pot. $1500.

Yeah, going through all of the individual combos, I think a little over a pot-sized bet is best. You put two pair in a really rough spot, where GTO he needs to call some two pair and fold others.

I think flop over bet looks good here you have strong hands that wanna put some money in early vs his draws and hands that want to continue. I like gettin 115% here on flop w like ax and two pairs and sets and some big draws like this that push lots of equity otf
On the turn you can go like 75% into the pot and the river pit will be pretty big
On this runout you can have some shoves w hands like this and some bluffs and he’s gonna have a tough time

If you're (known to be) a nit you just need to bet a moderate amount and hope he calls. If you've got an aggressive image then it's a solid spot to overbet because he's capped - ish here and you have quite a few value hands and bluffs for it.

Overbet turn is quite bad in general with this specific combo. I like it better with a worse semibluff. When you make the nuts on 30% of rivers and have position and a lot of stack behind, it's practically a value bet* and I'd bet an amount that has some fold equity while setting you up for highly profitable river situations, value and bluff.

* Meaning you will have 100% or 0% equity vs his range once he calls and the river comes, so even though you put the money in bad in a pot equity sense, you make so many profitable value bets and bluffs that you likely earn more from the pot than the amount of your turn bet.

I also don't see the point of an overbet on the turn.

Despite our sexy draw, we're still bluffing, and may want to bluff the river, so the less chips we use to accomplish that goal the better.

If opponent "hasn't gotten out of line," what is it that makes him tight-aggressive? Is there a distinction between being aggressive and getting "out of line?"

i always associated having a good mix of bluffs / value post and solid preflop ranges with tag play.

getting out of line means way overbluffing / attacking boards with a range disadvantage post and bad pre decisions (usually has to make me think "wtf?" like cold calling 3b with kjo or some ****)

As for the hand:

we're in position, which makes me dislike lines that overbet flop. we can still get stacks in with turn overbet. overbet turn is much more reasonable imo, getting raised sucks b/c we kind of have to stick our chips in anyway, but we also get an opportunity to get the max with all of our value & when our draws get there.