Quote:
Originally Posted by Ragequit99
Good advice above. I'll just add this:
Ed Miller suggests you think in terms of broad ranges but further lump them together into "weak fits" and "strong fits". A weak fit is a hand that continues this street and folds the next unless it improves. A strong fit is a hand that continues this and the next street without improving on the next card.
This technique helps you to think ahead in game so as well as making better reads you take better lines.
E.g. you open from the HJ to 4bb with some reasonable range, get called by a known reg in the big blind and see a headsup flop of:
Ac8h7h
V checks in front of you as he almost always does.
V's preflop call removes JJ+ AK from his range but his flop check tells us nothing useful.
He misses with: 66-22, KQs-K2s no hearts, KQo KJo, QJs-Q9s no hearts, QJo.
Weak fits: T9s no hearts TT 99 K8s Q8s 98s 98o T8s K7s 97s 76s 75s 54s JT no hearts.
Strong fits: 88 77 A8s A7s 87s AQ-A9 A6s-A2s KQhh-K2hh QJhh-Q8hh JThh T9 65s.
This is a useful way to divide up V's range because you can get a rough idea of how often he'll fold on the flop and how much of his continuing range will fold to a second barrel on the turn and which turn cards will improve V's flop weak-fits so they can continue the turn.
In my example V will fold less than half the time on this flop and he'll fold even less than half the time after calling the flop to see a turn. There are also a lot of turn cards that improve chunks of V's flop weak-fits: any heart 8, 9, T, J or Q.
My conclusion is this isnt a slam dunk "cbet my entire range" type spot. V hits often enough to be able to defend effectively here. Therefore I think I would cbet this flop for value and as a semibluff but I wouldn't bet a ton of air or under pairs. In fact I'd probably check back some weak AX and KK-TT despite the flush and straight draws out against me bease i know V will bet his whole range on the turn after I check a drawy flop IP. I would drop all pure bluffs on the turn, continue some of my draws while checking back with others, value bet AJ+ and check back at least some AT and weaker pairs.
Feel free to disagree with my ranges and lines - I'm only a mediocre poker player! Just spelling out my method for ranging opponents and deciding how to play my ranges.
Note that I'm guestimating the relative composition of V's ranges here, I haven't counted all the combos in each category or taken account of card removal effects. I don't have the brain power to do that at the table (or here really! ). In fact at the table my ranging of villain would be a bit more rudimentary too.
In game I'd be thinking in terms of:
Misses: 40% no pair no draw
Weak fits: 30% pairs < Aces and gutshots
Strong fits: 30% Aces+ OESDs and FDs
I'm just looking for a "good enough" rough estimate of how many and what types of hand go into the three buckets: missed, weak fits and strong fits. I just need enough to guide my initial decisions on the flop and then I'll narrow the ranges down over turn and river before even thinking about counting combos.
I like this sorting alot. I think that "good enough" estimates would be an awesome start!
How do you, at the table, get the numbers 40/30/30?