Posting a hand from the last time I played 10/20 on the east coast. Comes toward the end of an 18 hour session, V has been at table for 13+ of those hours. Have both been caught bluffing each other / gone thin for value. One unique (for live players) move he has is on rivers taking super nutted hands and bombing (2x pot+). I assumed he does it with good bluff combos (naked Ace on flush boards) as well.

Me in BB with Qc Jd and covers both.
SB with $3000 stack. Aggro tourist, playing something like 50/35.
V on BTN with ~$6000 stack.

BTN raise to $60, SB folds, I call.

Flop Ad Kd Qd (pot: $130)
I check, BTN check.

Turn Ad Kd Qd Qs (pot: $130)
I check, BTN bet $100, I call.

River Ad Kd Qd Qs Jc (pot: $330)
I check, BTN bet $250, I raise to $900, BTN three-bets to $2000.

Hero?

Important to discuss my rationale here for x/c on the turn. Probably going to get flamed for turn in the posts below but I'm still curious about river AP. It's just that BTN is sooo bluff happy I know he's putting money in drawing stone dead here with hands like 65 of spades, and he'll barrel again on river. I have very high confidence that BTN is firing ~90%+ of his range when I take a passive line for two streets on scary board. X/r loses all of those bluffs.

I think the key to answering your question is on the flop. He raised preflop but didn’t c-bet the flop, why? Either he had an underpair or he hit a major hand like like two pair or a set would be my guess. That means he has a lot of fulls in his range on this range when he three bets you here. While there’s some chance he has has jacks full the rest of his range is beating you. Imo unless you have some read on the guy I cry call this spot in case he’s leveling himself to a crazy degree. He’s never 4 betting in this spot with just a flush unless he’s turning it into some bluff.

Agree with Danny and V cant have the stone nuts since you hold the Jd. His line is really nutted though and this is different than him bombing 2x pot on river with nutted hands because of the way you played it. I don't think you can find a fold here but no way I am shoving over his 3!.

Near the top of our range, villain took a suspicious line, we have relevant blockers, call.

Also not impossible villain is getting optimistic with JJ/QJ here since we’re largely capped due to pre.

Probably fold if you are not 3 betting AQo pre. If you are 3 betting AQo pre, it's tempting to call. His only reasonable bluff is QxTd only 1 combo left of that

I don't care about defending against river 3 bets really.

Yeah, this is a straightforward river call, especially given the price you're getting. Top of your range and you hold the Jd. I even think this is a call even if you don't hold the Jd. I don't see a lot of two pairs got a boat on the river checking back the flop since they are so vulnerable on future runouts. Especially if he's as bluff heavy as you describe, he needs to have two pair in his flop betting range at least some of the time.

If you think V is bluffing too much on the turn, I prefer putting Q-J combos without a diamond into my x/c range over Q-J combos with the J-d, since having the Jd increases the playability of the hand across many rivers.

Similar to the hand I posted last month

Given the description of villain I’m a little more inclined to call here than I was in my hand. Tbh I would expect villain to bet sets on flop.

I ended up going into the tank - I’m a relatively fast player live and this was the first time all day V had seen me take more than a minute to make any decision.

He asks (words mostly accurate but this isn’t exact): “Are you taking so long because you want to raise or because you want to fold?”

I tell him I don’t know. He says he’ll show if I fold. I don’t know how to interpret this speech play but now I’m liking call a lot more than either of the other two options.

Think there’s only like 1% he folds AA or KK so I don’t like jamming. Obv I never get called by worse.

Do V’s actions change anything?

In reply to above poster, I’m 3! vs btn open at like 90% freq with AQo+

Vs this specific villain I’m three-betting a linear range oop because he’s calling IP so often.


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His talking makes me want to fold

Don't like the river raise. Your plan was to get villain bluffing at you on the river. Mission: accomplished. Raising just puts you in a spot you don't want to be.

Assuming villain is aggressive, flop/turn action makes me think his hand is polarized. AA, KK, or T-high flush. or a complete miss (underpair or worse)

Assuming you are also aggressive, flop/turn caps your range at exactly what you have. i.e., trips or a straight + nutflush draw.

His speech-play makes me feel he is stronger.

The fact that he's not bombing (you call $1100 to win $2380) suggests he's not nutted (AA / KK )

My belly tells me he is making a value bet against your range, which has very few boats and a lot more trips & straights

I'd call and feel OK about it.
Folding is probably a -EV play.
Raising again would be suicide.

am I understanding that you don’t like the initial river raise? or is your first paragraph referring to how you wouldn’t like a river 4b?



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I agree with the idea that talking = strength readless, but do you think the same is true from live midstakes regs?


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In this case it was specifically the unsolicited “I’ll show if you fold” because most regs know that when someone says they’ll show it’s a sign of weakness. So he’s trying to reverse tell you.

Generally speaking I would say talking = strength for midstakes regs yes. Very villain dependent tho

I don't like the initial raise on the river. What hands do we hope to pay us off? a straight? a ten-high flush?

We certainly aren't hoping to incite a 3-bet. It puts us in a spot so tough people argue about it for weeks on 2+2.

Because of villain description, I think villain is more likely to raise or fold a mid-strength hand (straight or flush) rather than simply call the raise.

I don’t think I can ever flat the river when i’m at the near top of my value range. the only better hands I get to the river with are JTs (1 combo), KQ (6 offsuit combos.)

meanwhile I see many hands that might call the raise (Qx, JJ, many flushes, some sticky Ax that didn’t bet flop even?)

Right we hope he has exactly Qx, JJ, a flush, or a T.

Meanwhile, with everything else, villain knows he can either bluff us or value-3-bet us.

I won't say a river raise is BAD, i just don't like it in a situation where we have so much showdown value but we're not prepared in advance for how to handle the (rather probably) re-raise. Often that plan comes from intuition, but in your case, it took you by surprise and put you in a spot you didn't want to be in. (evidenced by you tanking on the decision)

It just feels like the villain is likely to have a much more accurate read on our range than vice versa, and it puts us at a disadvantage. Proceed with caution.

Maybe it's bias because I read the hand history, but if I were the villain, your play feels too passive for me to think you have KQ or JdTd. If you 4-bet the river then I'd re-evaluate that assumption.

Right we hope he has exactly Qx, JJ, a flush, or a T.

Meanwhile, with everything else, villain knows he can either bluff us or value-3-bet us.

I won't say a river raise is BAD, i just don't like it in a situation where we have so much showdown value but we're not prepared in advance for how to handle a (rather probable) re-raise. Often that plan comes from intuition, but in your case, it took you by surprise and put you in a spot you didn't want to be in. (evidenced by you tanking on the decision)

It just feels like the villain is likely to have a much more accurate read on our range than vice versa, and it puts us at a disadvantage. These are the situations I want to proceed with caution.

Maybe it's bias because I read the hand history, but if I were the villain, your play feels too passive for me to think you have KQ or JTdd. If you 4-bet the river, then I re-evaluate that assumption. (For the same reason that I think a 4-bet from you is suicide: villains range much more likely to contain nutted hands like AA KK AQ KQ JTdd)

I fold, seems extremely hard for hero to represent aa/kk/qq which makes xr probematic, checking back 2p+ from villain also seems ok since he will have a hard time representing flopped set or straight

VERY cursory PIO analysis shows that:

1) Jd is definitely a turn bet, but QxJx are much better candidates for mixing it up here.

2) A river C/R gets called by straights with Td and all flushes that checked back the flop, which PIO checks back flop with some frequency. PIO 100% c/r's the river given your line, and in practice I think it's a perfectly fine c/r against an aggressive opponent. If he's so barrel happy, you should have a few bluffs in your range as well, which demands some balance here. WP.

3) PIO is 54/45 toward calling river with QJ without a diamond, but snap folds QcJd. The blocker effects of having Jd here is enormous.

These are obvious approximations, but it gives you a good baseline to know that computers don't mind

Don't skip out on obviously +EV river c/r's just because you might face a raise that gives you heartache later. It's amazing to me that people are considering flatting here on a 3-flush, 4-straight board with a slowplayed FH.

This was a fun morning study session! Thank you.

this is interesting stuff. Just curious - what rough PF ranges did you input for me & V?


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So what +EV amount does PIO give to the hero's check-raise?

ty to all posters, solid analysis in this thread.

Called and V showed the case Q... QJ for a chop.

Grunch. x/r river is too thin, just call river as played

Probably leading turn as a general rule but if you think he's overbluffing when checked to then I completely understand turn x/c

EDIT: just read some responses about PIO ranges here and I'm curious if you think villains are actually playing/calling solver ranges on this river in this extremely specific runout/spot and you're actually getting called by worse at enough frequency to x/r river?

You think villain is actually x/b enough flushes/straights that also now call this river x/r?

Whatever man maybe I'm totally off base and I haven't even run the solver for myself yet, but it just seems ridiculous to me that we would assume villain's are playing solveresque ranges (or expect us to be bluffing with solveresque bluffs so they call with TdJx and 98dd) in this super specific spot.

I think it's a huge leak to assume this and not take advantage of grossly huge +EV exploitativish lines and just default to what the solver thinks is best; because what the solver thinks is best is only the best if they are also playing solver ranges, which lets face it, no one is