Ship is the correct play. You can justify all kind of exploits here by not shipping.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarretman
The thing that confuses me about these spots is because we're raising so large we should have a lot of bluffs (I thought/think at least), and we're gonna run out of good hands to use as bluffs.
Excellent criticism since it forced me to count combos and think ranges in more practical way. Maybe this true in general. In this spot however AT (12 combos), KTs (3 combos)=15 combos and AK is 16 combos. It's balanced or close enough! (accidentally but I'll take it). Obviously you can play hands a bit differently but that goes for AK and A9 type of hands as well.
I think it is clear that AK is part of your range, but it certainly is only a *small part* of it. Up until the river raise your range has been pretty wide, and now you are saying it’s very very small. I think such a rapid narrowing of your range in a fairly last minute way always looks a bit fishy, especially as he can discount some proportion of your AK holdings as betting the flop is fairly standard with it. I don’t think it’s a great spot to bluff.
Ship is the correct play. You can justify all kind of exploits here by not shipping.
Excellent criticism since it forced me to count combos and think ranges in more practical way. Maybe this true in general. In this spot however AT (12 combos), KTs (3 combos)=15 combos and AK is 16 combos. It's balanced or close enough! (accidentally but I'll take it). Obviously you can play hands a bit differently but that goes for AK and A9 type of hands as well.
Don't forget this is only if we play all of our AK like this
The reason I would stuff AK here is the same reason I would not stuff as a bluff.
If we were playing someone that we have better reads on and wanted to bluff, I agree stuff is way to go. This sounds silly but a conservative MAWG actually has a chunk of AK here and more importantly we aren’t sure if he’s capable of folding 9x.
I have just dusted off so much money trying to make unknowns fold when I credibly rep the nuts and they go “sh*t! I knew you had AK” as they count out a call. Or they just snap with the nuts in a spot that they should never have the nuts.
Vs someone that we know 3bets AK 100% stuff is fine.
Not sure what this nonsense is about us not having a lot of AK. We have all of them except maybe AKhh.
Kudos if you can do all this in real time at the table, being aware every time how the ranges are capped and what exactly you are repping and varying sizing accordingly. That's some Doug Polk level skills. In practice its more realistic to craft a simplified strategy that has less EV but is easier to apply consistently for good results. Of course we also need to balance that with our desire to improve and adopt more complex game trees.
(In this thread it was mentioned that villain may have some AK too which would make sizing really huge bad because he is not totally capped) that chance of him having AK should affect our sizing too..
How do we know villains range is capped here when he leads turn and river OOP? Seems likely he could have a 9 or?
I'm personally working on finding good overbetting spots based on capped ranges so this is something I need a lot of work on.
