Quote:
Originally Posted by brunowillis
maybe we are talking about two differerent things. What i mean is when you are running good your upswings (and i dont mean only a few hundred hands) will be decreased a lot by the rake. If you run bad it will be a 100% downswing.
What often happens in games with 4.5BB rake is that you win 250BB when you run hot and lose 400-500BB when you run terrible over a few thousand hands, because 200BB are raked to death. I am only talking about high rake games against guys with not enough fold equity against them (games you should quit imo).
Although 500BB swings happen frequently in my charts (which may be normal with my aggressive approach)
No we're talking about the same thing as long as we're both assuming that we are beating the rake. There is no way that the rake can make your average downswing bigger than your average upswing as long as you are a breakeven or better player (after the rake).
Let's take your game as an example. Let's say you beat it for exactly 4.5BB before the rake. That means that after the rake you are exactly a breakeven player with a 0BB winrate. An average standard deviation for huhu is about 25BB/100 so that would mean that in a 100 hand sample there is about a 67% chance that you would be up/down 25 big bets with both being equally likely.
Of course, as soon as you stop being a winner because of the rake then it will effectively increase your downswings vs your upswings. But as long as you are a winner after the rake, your upswings will be bigger than your downswings.
So that is always the question we should be looking for. Are we +EV or not after the rake. If not, we should immediately quit the game unless we like losing money or the intrinsic value of playing is high enough to cover the losses (for entertainment or education purposes).
Edit:
I just realized that you never stated that we were beating the rake, so maybe we aren't talking about the same thing.
But in that case it's obvious that we shouldn't be playing the game. We're -EV so we don't play, end of story.
Last edited by Wolfram; 07-12-2009 at 03:42 PM.