HUHU NC/LC Thread for March - Page 28 - Heads Up Poker

This guy likes to fold to 3rd barrels. Still surprising he folded on this board texture...

Full Tilt Poker $2.00/$4.00 Limit Hold'em - 2 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Pre Flop: (1.5 SB) Hero is BB with 7

BTN/SB calls, Hero raises, BTN/SB calls

Flop: (4 SB) Q

(2 players)
Hero bets, BTN/SB calls

Turn: (3 BB) K

(2 players)
Hero bets, BTN/SB calls

River: (5 BB) A

(2 players)
Hero bets, BTN/SB folds

Final Pot: 5 BB
Hero wins 4.875 BB
(Rake: $0.50)

Normally you can c/f turn imo or however c/f river

03-24-2010 , 06:33 PM

#677

johnnyrocket

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 9,277

copoka, try to keep the insane math calcs on to a minimum please

03-24-2010 , 06:36 PM

#678

dragon1893

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 11,157

Quote:

Originally Posted by ghrrrooo

Normally you can c/f turn imo or however c/f river

yeah, and i do it normally

but this guy was special...

03-24-2010 , 06:37 PM

#679

Six Finger Nate

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 1,623

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnnyrocket

copoka, try to keep the insane math calcs on to a minimum please

Careful Johnny. He doesn't take kindly to luckboxes like yourself.

03-24-2010 , 07:23 PM

#680

Gnome XXL

grinder

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 529

Quote:

Originally Posted by copoka

My theory is not about running good/bad.
My theory is about validity of "long term" poker results.
My theory is about treating "long term" poker result the same way casino treats revenue stream from roulette tables - solid, indisputable, mathematical fact that makes future very predictable.

The reason why people want to treat it this way is understandable.
It's a beautiful dream to be dreaming.
2.5BB/100 at 10/20 even with 10k hands a month translates into income adjusted for lifestyle that is unheard of for absolute majority of college grads.
And how about 20/40? WOW.
Beautiful dream indeed.

And, understandably, this dream is being defended with stubbornness that deserves a better use.
If dream is taken away future becomes very uncertain and scary to compere.
So to avoid unpleasant thoughts heads get stuck in a send of unreasonable expectations. And any unpleasant arguments, although can't be dis-proven, are being ridiculed.

Scores of mind-boggling outliers are popping out everywhere? So what.
A few current winners are being declared as a prove and 2.5BB/100 "WR" over couple of hundreds k hands with very mysterious composition is being declared as certain predictor of future results as iron clad, completely transparent 5.26% edge in every bet.

Very naive, but nothing new.
Cemeteries of every speculative field in history are filled with bones of incompetent idiots and competent "dreamers" alike.
Negligible amount of winners who where able to "sustain unsustainable" keep the dream alive.

Am I the only one that sees this as poetic, regardless of content?

No disrespect meant, either.

03-24-2010 , 07:29 PM

#681

nadical

banned

Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 781

the lobbies are just hilarious these days at all hours of the day\night. 2 10-20 games going from 15-30 to 3-6 on ftp. niceeee boys im just gonna start hit and running regs at 100-200 and hope it goes well

03-24-2010 , 07:34 PM

#682

johnnyrocket

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 9,277

Quote:

Originally Posted by nadical

bring it on, it's only going to get worse for the next few months atleast, if not legalized it will just progressively get even more worse

03-24-2010 , 07:44 PM

#683

nadical

banned

Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 781

Yea I have already been looking into other games and actually have been bookmarking jobs. Sad month for me went on vacation for a month and come back to this garbage didn't think it would get this bad for like 3-4 more months.

03-24-2010 , 09:11 PM

#684

BigOuts2Nguyen

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 328

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hood

Defend J

Checkcall 7

checkcall Q

checkraise bluff 9

river

Saw a known winning 10/20 reg take this line. Can anyone defend this? Appears to be a clear misplay on every street regardless of opponent read.

He's playing the player and not the cards !

03-24-2010 , 09:17 PM

#685

BigOuts2Nguyen

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 328

Flop he's prolly thinking, okay, i'm getting 4:1, if he's got any 2 I'm 35%, call. Turn he's like well, I've still got like 30% equity against any 2... so call.
River... Um I beat like nothing and can't soul read call profitably... oooooooh blockers.. RAISE!

03-24-2010 , 09:20 PM

#686

johnnyrocket

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 9,277

J6 isnt just a call down vs most on this board? news to me

03-24-2010 , 09:24 PM

#687

BigOuts2Nguyen

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 328

only when monkeys turn into polar bears

03-24-2010 , 09:36 PM

#688

copoka

grinder

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 547

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnnyrocket

copoka, try to keep the insane math calcs on to a minimum please

Ok. No math at all. Just some logic.

There are 2 events A and B
A is a "long term WR"
B is a recent downer.

Confidence for both events is calculated using the same methodology that takes away the need to consider a sample size.

As it happened, if A is true, B is impossible or close enough to it to make both events mutually exclusive.

As a reasonable person i have to conclude that

either
methodology, that went into calculation of both events is not suitable for this particular study

or
Events are independent. A was then and B is now, which makes A pretty much irrelevant, B - true reflection of the current situation and it's up to me to figure out where the troublesome difference has come from.

Process of figuring it out involves so many unknown variables that it seems like an impossible task. So I personally like the first conclusion a lot better.

Either way, I found the statements like "I have such a long history of being at A, that B must be nothing more but irrelevant bump on my road to continuing success" quite amusing.

There is a theory, that attempts to bring mutually exclusive nature of A and B to a peaceful coexistence. Its comforting and reassuring alright.
It works great in whole bunch of fields. But as far as poker, it's still just a theory until proven to be a fact.
I suspect, it would take a lot of insane math calcs to do so.

Quote:

Careful Johnny. He doesn't take kindly to luckboxes like yourself.

Where do you guys get this idea of my presumed feeling of dislike towards fellow poker players.
I have nothing but respect and admiration both for your results and skill level.

03-24-2010 , 09:55 PM

#689

MurderbyNumbers123

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 1,462

Quote:

Originally Posted by copoka

I have nothing but respect and admiration both for your results and skill level.

dont you see that they are the same?

just seems like a passive aggressive way to phrase it

Are you a math student by the way copoka? you seem to indulge in theory etc far more often than a normal person.

03-24-2010 , 10:58 PM

#690

Hood

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 6,887

in other news, stox poker going down from may 1st many coaches will go over to CR

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...postcount=1639

03-24-2010 , 11:29 PM

#691

johnnyrocket

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 9,277

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hood

in other news, stox poker going down from may 1st many coaches will go over to CR

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...postcount=1639

hmm maybe i'll unretire and make a few videos for cardrunners

03-24-2010 , 11:31 PM

#692

MurderbyNumbers123

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 1,462

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnnyrocket

hmm maybe i'll unretire and make a few videos for cardrunners

pls to not be sharing the secret chinese informations kthx

03-24-2010 , 11:52 PM

#693

johnnyrocket

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 9,277

Quote:

Originally Posted by MurderbyNumbers123

pls to not be sharing the secret chinese informations kthx

would never ever put out a HU video

03-24-2010 , 11:56 PM

#694

randomrules

adept

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 1,193

Bryce's vids on this are pretty good to watch.
Especially when he tells some two-squared members to go eff themselves.

03-24-2010 , 11:57 PM

#695

Hood

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 6,887

for those who want direct links

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZFr09...ayer_embedded#
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KZFwH...eature=channel

03-25-2010 , 01:31 AM

#696

chinamaniac

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 3,720

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnnyrocket

hmm maybe i'll unretire and make a few videos for venom poker when they open their training portion

fyp

03-25-2010 , 02:01 AM

#697

Gildwulf

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 23,491

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hood

in other news, stox poker going down from may 1st many coaches will go over to CR

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...postcount=1639

WOW, I am out of the loop...just catching up now.

Taylor is a brilliant businessman. In one fell swoop, he saves (and enhances) his brand, basically forces all the stox coaches over to Cardrunners and destroys his biggest former competitor. Hats off, sir.