Hello all long time lurker here if this is the wrong place for this i apologize.

I traveled for work until recently find myself in the vegas area and things got quiet on the job fron so i decided to give it a try been in vegas for a week now found cheap living arrangments and am going to try to support myself and my gf with poker. Staying for a month longer here and hopefully be going to la after that assuming im not broke lol.

Ive got about 20k br and some extra set aside for expenses but so far its not going well. Losing about 11 dollars an hour in 40 hours. Hoping to get some support and advice here. Been playing only 1 2 and small plo games because i wanted to try and build up a little cash with smaller risk of ruin for the first week or so athough technically i am rolled for 2 5.

I won a bunch of sessions but the times i get bad beat seem to be the biggest pots and of course i have made a few big errors but nothing to crazy i still believe this is just bad variance but i am getting a little nervous.

Any advice for me guys? Should i just jump into 500 dollar plus games before i bleed away at the smaller stakes? Do you think playing 200$ plo is acceptable with this roll assuming i am top 2 or 3 players at the table?

I really want to make this work and i think i can but looking pretty bleak right now.

Just tell me you are not living in Siegel Suites

You have forty hours of sample size. That is nothing. You shouldn't be playing pro if you don't have an understanding of the swings in poker.

Also, now that the wsop is coming to an end you will be playing 8n Vegas during the worst time of year. The 1 2 plays super nitty with small pots, so expect your true hourly to be pretty small.

That's why many posters recommend you play 2 5 if your only source of income is from poker. Do you have any sample size that shows you are a long term winner in the game?

I own a motorhome so its pretty inexpensive to live anywhere. I have probably 2k live hrs lifetime but ive only tracked 450 of them 40 were here which is where im getting those stats from. Ive been playing a lot of 200$ plo because i think my edge is good. I will probably play only this plo game and 25 nl for the rest of my stay here. I would play bigger plo but with 20k br its a little too risky i think. I really want to be successful so any feedback or input appreciated.

Love the game though and dont have any problem with variance love playing long sessions and changing games properties often. been having fun but making no money just thought this might be an interesting way to get some support and feedback and catalog my endeavour.

Also been playing select tourneys in the 1-400 dollar range bubbled one final table with 5k up top.

Am i at least going about this the right way?

Edit: i think i have to have a lot more than 2k live hours now that im thinking about it probably more like 5k thats over the 4 years ive been playing. Still just an estimate though.

Don't panic, but also don't be too passive. Go for it.
How old are you?
Does your gf work?
Pixs of gf...

Im 26 my gf does not work i was supporting her prior to this as well i control all the money. She might get a job at her own discretion but im only paying 3-400 f
Dollars a week towards "gf expenses" atm. Ive done the math and with an hrly of maybe 50 an hour i should be very profitable so long as i clock 40-60 a week. But of course my first 40 hours yield 2k loss or so. It is to be expected though i guess

what makes you think you can play 200 plo or 2/5 nl and make 50 an hour?

what illness does your gf have that prevents her from working?

10 bb an hr at 2.5 pretty reasonable although i might run a little less. Idk what a reasonable hourly for this plo game is but plays pretty big up 700 right now been here for a couple hrs. She has no sickness i just take care of everything because i can if she wants a job she can get one doesnt matter to me. Our finances are separate regardless.

She already has a job making 400 a week, no need to get a second one.

I agree with your math that if you have a $50/hr win rate and play 40-60 hours a week you will be profitable. I mean $2K/$3K a week is pretty nice.

What has given you the impression that this is an obtainable rate?

Sure. Does this seem to be the case so far in Vegas?

Can't you read?

I understand the hourly is high end pro crusher. When i did all this calculating i left a big cushion so that even if i make half that hourly i will still be making a profit after expenses.

These games ive been playing yes action is good seeing 6 way pots almost every hand currently regardless of raise sizes or position so its pretty effin good.

I know its not going to go that smoothly but we aim high. i will be happy if i can make 30 hr at 25 and i think thats quite realistic.

Of course i want to study and such regularly to get better and reach that level. Although with so much action and the wsop ending ive been trying to play as much as possible lately.

"Losing about 11 dollars an hour in 40 hours" = $440
"But of course my first 40 hours yield 2k loss or so"


which is it?

Sorry 2k in vegas the hourly includes data from before vegas

It all depends how you start off running. Since you started on a downswing, I'd get a day asap cause 20k plus some expenses without a job isn't much. I'd get a day job asap and play part time til I built I huge bankroll.

I wish you good luck.

Just a couple of thoughts. The first is how much playing time you actually have. You initially said you've played about 2000 hours over the last 4 years. That works out to being about 1-2 sessions of poker every week over the last 4 years. 5000 hours would be more like 3-4 sessions of poker every week for 4 years straight. If I did something every week for 4 years, I'd pretty know how much time I put into it. I suspect you've put less time into poker than you think.

The second thing is about winrate. Since there is no way to actually monitor how much a cash game player is winning, self-proclaimed winrates tend to be inflated. Even when people record them, they'll tend to start counting when things are going well and leave out the tilt or drunken sessions where the spewed off a lot of chips because, "that's not how they really play." The second aspect of this is recreational players tend to only play when the games are at their best, which are weekend evenings and holidays. If you are going to play 40-60 hours per week, you're going to play when games aren't as good. Your winrate is going to go down.

Finally, variance can crush you. Playing PLO or tournaments is a high variance approach. If you are looking to make a steady income, you'll want to playing more NLHE or limit HE cash games.

You are one week away from the period between WSOP and Labor Day where 2/5 is the biggest game almost everywhere in Vegas. Bellagio will still have 5/10+ but not even there are you guaranteed to get in 60 hours/week at 2/5 while bigger games are running. When 2/5 is the biggest game available, you’ll suddenly encounter games where 5-6 players really know what they are doing which massively limits your ability to take money from the couple bad players at the table.

If you are able to make $50/hour over 40-60 hours a week during that period of time, you are among the biggest small stakes winners in town. I don’t want to be negative or the bad news bear, but if you can’t crush 1/2 games right now, during one of the best times for poker of the year, I highly doubt you’ll average even $20/hour during the summer if you want to get in as much volume as you plan to.

FWIW, it’s your money and you should use it for whatever makes you happy, but if your GF costs you $1200-1600/month, that’s a pretty expensive hobby.

Not to be disrespectful but I hear this, or something like it, quite often. How does one measure that assumption other than by actual outcomes over a realistic period of time? Underestimating your opponents, not giving them enough credit, not really understanding what it is that they are doing, are the type of unforced errors that can have a significant impact on the bottom line.

Yeah, that’s what I thought when I read “action is good seeing 6 way pots almost every hand currently regardless of raise sizes or position.” Could somebody make a lot of money in that game? Sure, but it doesn’t sound like the best option if you’re going to be concerned about having a few losing sessions in a row.

I think if you are asking if you should invest what is left of 20k roll into poker,
based on what you have shared so far then I would suggest you will get better returns investing in your user name.

400 a week in gf expenses is not cheap. Gl

"Extra" set aside for expenses? How much is that? My best advice is to really separate your living expenses from your roll. And to have at least 6 months (preferably 12 months) set aside for living expenses.

Also, why are you supporting your gf? Is this a temporary thing?

Also, I'd recommend finding the game/game type you enjoy the most and try to get better at that. No sense in trying to get better at something in which you have to spend 10+ hours a day playing and you absolutely despise doing.

I'd also recommend signing up to WSOP.com to at the very least get some added practice at whatever game you decide to focus on.

And finally, only play when you are rested and in the proper/positive frame of mind and want to play. I've found that if you're just going out to play because you feel you have to, your results will suffer. Proper frame of mind is very important IMO.

Game selection is also very important. Cant stress this enough. Within a couple of orbits you should be able to figure out what type of game it is and how many players are good. It's Vegas.....you can always get up and move on to another game.....

I came out here in April and while I had a better than expected April, May and June were complete disasters for differing reasons. Hopefully I am now forming a bottom and things will soon be on the upswing.

It's good to aim high but you need to be realistic in planning.

The upside for you seems to be that there's little downside, if it doesn't work out you can drive somewhere else and look for work.

People don't become crushers magically. They put in a lot of hard work both at and away from the tables. You should probably make a list of concrete things you can do to improve your game and find some people to talk with.

so you jumped into the deep end of the pool and it just dawns on you.
HEY I shoulda learned how to swim 1st

you're living in a RV
what in hell does she need 300-400 weekly for?

this must be a troll posting