Over the past couple years I've bet more and more and more on sports. More money, more games, more props, more apps, more sports, more time... MORE MORE MORE!

I'm putting together this little TR just to document some of my thoughts, experiences and emotions. I'm going to start with my recent memory, which only goes back a month or so and create a new post per significant event or period. Once I get to current, if people like it (and if I like it) I'll keep it up. I'm hoping this could be a good outlet and a chance for me to reflect on my thoughts/experiences/emotions and see how they effect my decision making in retrospect.

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So we'll start with the week around xmas. I'm on a losing streak, down about 15k straight. I'm a little depressed and ashamed about it. At one point I'd been up over $20k fueled mainly by UFC bets. I'd won a lot on the Khabib vs McGregor fight where I bet the over 2.5 rounds and also hit a huge prop on Khabib by finish in the 4th round. My analysis here was that Conor would get beaten up in the early rounds, realize that he was going to lose and would either essentially gas out or give up in the 3rd, 4th or 5th. And that's exactly what happened.

Whenever I make a big score I withdraw, and I took down over $20k from my account. Here in the middle of my losing streak, I start adding up all my deposits against my withdrawals - yep, still up, just a little bit. So less depressing.

For months I've been looking forward to betting Amanda Nunes at more than +200 vs Cyborg. UFC betting gives you so many opportunities to bet against overly hyped fighters and this is one of the best I've seen. Nunes is a beast with a diverse set of skills. Cyborg has never been legitimately tested in my opinion. I ran through all their stats and watched all their fights. Nunes is a tremendous natural athlete who's faced tough competition. Cyborg fights chicks who look like got pulled out of the crowd. And for all people talk about Cyborg's power, I notice she's not devastating these girls with one shot. It takes an accumulation of shots and she's more than willing to trade in reckless exchanges to land her punches. I really feel confident that Nunes is going to win the fight at least close to 50% of the time, so the posted +230 at William Hill is a great value.

So here I am with only $3k in my account and I bet Nunes at +230 over a week before the fight. This is the earliest I've bet a fight. I did it because I know there's such value here and also because I've noticed very drastic line movements in UFC in the days before the fight - especially the day of the fight. Also, I wanted to drop the bet in before I lost it all on some other dumb ****.

A funny thing happened on Christmas Eve. I logged into my William Hill account to check lines - expecting balance $0 - and see a $3k balance. They refunded my Nunes bet, presumably due to the location change for the fight caused by Jon Jones drug test results. And now the line is only +205. Shiiiiiiiiiiit just my luck!

The next day, Christmas, in the midst of the boredom of having about 30 of my wife's relatives over for dinner, I bet the under on the Lakers vs Warriors at 233.5 for $1100. Then I go for the middle in-game, betting the over 225.5 for $1150. I hit both. Boom! Then I see that it's the 2nd of a triple header, with the final game being Blazers vs Jazz. I bet $550 on the under 213.5 and then hedge in game by betting $575 on the over 208.5. Winner again! Up $3k for the night and my balance is now $6k.

Dec 25:
WON $1000 Lakers/Warriors UNDER 233.5
WON $1000 Lakers/Warriors OVER 225.5
WON $500 Blazers/Jazz UNDER 213.5
WON $500 Blazers/Jazz OVER 208.5
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NET WIN $3000

Two days later on Dec 27 I go for a couple more NBA totals. I see the Bucks/Knicks is listed at 233.5, which is pretty high. I'm biased towards unders in NBA this year even though scoring has increased quite a bit. With a total as high as 230s, I think there's more ways to go under than over. Plus you can always hedge and go for the middle. This Bucks vs Knicks game was never close. Under the whole way!

Now I'm feeling over confident and make another bet, Lakers vs Kings under 229.5. The Lakers are playing without Lebron and I just think they'll be disorganized and not play as well, even though you could make the argument that he's such a ball control player that totals are likely to be lower with him in the lineup. This game is total bull****, no defense whatsoever. The game goes way over and not even a chance to hedge.

I booked another NBA totals bet at the same time as the Lakers/Kings. The Blazers/Warriors are at 227. Both these teams can score a lot and both have scored pretty low in recent memory too. I just see more ways for it to go under, so I make the bet. Again, this game is a winner the whole way through. I hedge an over bet at 204.5 and miss. Just threw a way a $1k win.

Dec 27:
WON $1000 Bucks/Knicks UNDER 233.5
LOST $1100 Lakers/Kings UNDER 229.5
WON $1000 Blazers/Warriors UNDER 227
LOST $1150 Blazers/Warriors OVER 204.5
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NET LOSS: $250

So now I'm feeling pretty dumb. I'm down $250 when I could have been up $1000 if I didn't hedge the sure win Blazers/Warriors game. Idiot!

I go ahead and fire a $1k bullet on Nunes even though I hate the price - down to +200.

The next day, Dec 28. I'm getting a haircut and see the Music City bowl featuring Auburn and Purdue. Auburn just jumped to a 17 point lead and Purdue looks like total trash. I bet $230 to win $200 on Auburn -13.5. I should have bet a million. Auburn leads at halftime 56-7 and wins 63-14.

Later that night I pick WSU -4 over Iowa St. Again, just small money - just $220. But in the early going I like how the game looks for WSU and bet $575 to win $500 at -6.5. They play like **** in the 2nd half and win but don't cover, 28-26. I also blow a $300 5 team parlay where this was the only game not to cover.

Finally, I see that Nunes is back to +220 on the eve of the fight and drop another $1k on her.

Dec 28:
LOST $805 Washington St -4.5 & -6.5 vs Iowa St
LOST $300 parlay
WON $200 Auburn -13.5 vs Purdue
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Net LOSS $905

Dec 29:

This is the day of the college football playoff semifinal and also UFC 232. I start with a $1100 bet on Clemson -11. Notre Dame is overrated and always gets clobbered in big bowl games. No change here, Clemson smokes them.

Next I have a 3 leg parlay for $500 featuring Clemson -11, the over 57.5 in the Clemson game and Under 80.5 in Alabama vs Oklahoma. The Cotton Bowl goes according to plan netting me a $1k win on my straight bet and 2 of the 3 legs on the parlay. So I go ahead and hedge $550 on the under 80.5, which means I'm freerolling the under for about $3k.

This turns into a high scoring affair and I rebet the over at 78.5 for $550 on the in-game. Works out well. The game lands on exactly 79. I hit a parlay for $3450 and unhedged my $550.

I'm up over $4k on the day. I drop in another 3 team parlay. Warriors -200 moneyline vs Blazers (no way the Blazers beat them 2x in a week), the under 2.5 rounds in Cyborg vs Nunes and Under 4.5 rounds in Jones vs Gustaffson. I feel very strongly that Jones will get an early finish and the +160 on the chick fight is great value. These are both fighters who love to finish and girl fights can often be all out fight to the death affairs.

Any plan I had on betting more on Nunes flew out the window as she was down to +160 heading into the fight. So I've got only $2k on her when at one point I'd hoped to get $5k - $10k in. Oh well, can't complain -- I've been winning on money I'd had locked up on her and ran it up pretty well.

The Warriors cruise as expected and Nunes beats the living **** out of Cyborg. She crushed her in 50 seconds, and knocked her down 3 separate times in the process.

Now I've hit 2/3 my 2nd parlay with only the under on Jones/Gus remaining. I hedge even though I know it's going under and it was a waste - Jones pummeled him and the fight was stopped in the 3rd I believe. Still, a great day because:

WON: $1000 Clemson -11 vs Notre Dame
WON: $3000 3 team parlay (Clemson, Clemson OVER, Alabama UNDER)
WON: $4200 Amanda Nunes +205 & +220
WON: $3450 3 team parlay (Warriors -200, Nunes UNDER 2.5 +160, Jones UNDER 4.5 -130)
LOST $455 Jones OVER 4.5 +110
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NET WIN
$11,195


Dec 30
NFL Sunday, the last week of the regular season. I start with a $500 4 team parlay simply because I'm on fire. It's Cowboys/Giants OVER 39, Patriots -13.5 vs Jets, Patriots/Jets OVER 47 and Browns +6.5 vs Ravens. I everything but the over on the Pats, who win 38-3. Fuuuck...

I also drop $550 on each of these bets individually, netting me a $450 win. Could have been a big one though if the Jets just do their part. Bastards.

Next up I drop $3300 on the Chargers at Broncos -6.5 The game is ugly and not going well. I hedge the Broncos +105 at +6.5 midway through the game because I'm not feeling comfortable. Chargers end up taking care of business with the win + cover.

I turn on the TV to see the Browns with the ball and a chance to win at the Ravens. I bet $300 on the in-game ML +165. Lose.

The final regular season game of the year is Colts @ Titans with playoffs on the line. The Titans are getting 5.5 at home in part because Mariota is out. I personally don't think Mariota is a huge loss and take the 5.5 at home for $1100. Big mistake. Titans play like trash and lose.

Dec 30:
LOST $500 4 team Parlay
WON $500 Pats -13.5 vs Jets
WON $500 Browns +6 vs Ravens
WON $500 Cowboys OVER 39
LOST $550 Pats OVER 47
WON $3000 Chargers -6.5
LOST $1000 Broncos +6.5
WON $200 Chargers -10.5 vs Broncos
LOST $300 Browns ml vs Ravens
LOST $1100 Titans +5.5 vs Colts
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Net Win: $1250

I end the week up $14,290, basically winning back my losing streak. But I did it without discipline. I planned to work $5k - $10k on Nunes +230. If I had just bet the $10k I would have been up over $23k on the event - almost $9k more than I actually won. I need to trust myself more on sports like UFC where I have higher knowledge and play around less on football. Then again, I don't think I could have bet the whole $10k in a losing streak and I'd also had some liquidity issues due to a logistical banking problem.

But there is some good news. I cashed out $10k and won $6k playing 5/10 NL on NYE, putting me up $20k straight for the week. Not a bad way to end the year. Unfortunately, my luck hasn't held up in 2019... it's been a complete disaster. Will update the TR when I get a moment.

You indeed seem like an enormous degenerate!

why are you hedging parlays? if you're gonna hedge just leave off the last game when you make the parlay.

A 3-teamer pays roughly 6/1 while a 2-teamer pays 13/5. Suppose you bet $100 to win $600 (total pay $700) on a 3-teamer and your first 2 hit. You now have $700 riding on the final game. Now you can bet $100 the other way to remove your downside risk. If you had just bet the first 2 your win would be $260.

So your outcomes on the 3-teamer w/hedge would be:
a) win/lose $0
b) win $500
whereas your outcomes on the 2-teamer that already hit would be to just win $260.

Yes, you could point out that the EV here is $250 compared to $260 on the 2-teamer that already hit, but I'd counter that to me personally the promise of a larger payout is more appealing. I know this might sound counter intuitive but I'm not playing with the grocery money and it's just how I like to do it.

I'd also add that I don't normally do a 2-teamer unless it's on the same game or simultaneous games. For non-simultaneous games, you'd be better off to bet the $100 on the first game then bet it all (initial $100 plus your winnings) on the 2nd game. There are some exceptions for me on this thinking, mainly having to do with UFC for reasons I'll have to explain later, but at the end of the day, I don't think parlays are a profitable play in general, I usually avoid them and typically just bet them when things are going really well or really poorly.

I enjoyed your TR, but does anything you are describing have anything to do with Las Vegas?

You are a genius, more please

Entertaining, yeah, stick to sports where you have some better insights than the crowd.

You get too deep on seeming impulse bets.

Exercise some discipline.