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Planning a move for poker - Vegas vs. LA vs. South Florida? Planning a move for poker - Vegas vs. LA vs. South Florida?

04-23-2017 , 08:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JackStraightUp
What's wrong with going to the Winstar and trying it out for a few weeks? That's a reasonable choice. You can always move to Vegas later. Or play 2/5 in Vegas when you get a large enough bankroll. Plus Winstar has 2/5 I'm sure.

Vegas is a another good choice. And I think you'd find more social outlets.

South Florida's casino's are pretty scattered imo.

Maryland is expensive.

LA is expensive
What about Tampa? I can get a decent 2-bedroom there for estimate 800 to 1000 a month. I've only gotten input from one or two people about Tampa. Curious if it's a valid option as COL is fairly low and QOL higher than Gainesville TX for sure.

The problem with playing at Winstar for say 3 weeks is it would be rather expensive. Pretty sure I'd have to stay in a hotel. And I live close enough (3 hours) to drive up for a week or so to try it out, but too far to go there and back in one day.

I may be able to get like a 6 month apartment lease though. That would be pretty reasonable. I'm planning to visit first before doing that but it would probably just be for a week.

And yeah from what I've heard in the Winstar thread is they have 2/5 running almost 24/7, except sometimes the games break at like 5 AM. But there is plenty of 2/5 action supposedly, and while the games are reportedly much tougher than 1/3, they are still very beatable.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
Off the top of my head there are over a dozen poker markets in the US that regularly run 2/5.
Where? I don't want to avoid considering anywhere viable.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
Live games are really really soft. We just discussed this a bit in another thread, but essentially based on my experience and experience of top 2/5 players I have talked to, it is very rare for a top player to go on a $10k downswing at 2/5, even in Vegas where 2/5 is more difficult and buyins are often deeper. That's not to say you shouldn't have a larger roll than $10k. I think it's important for piece of mind but waiting until you have $50k is insane because you are just throwing money down the tube if you are avoiding games that are super beatable which you are in fact rolled for (or can take shots at).
Well I'm sure you're correct that at live games people have higher winrates, at least at lower stakes. And therefore downswings like I mentioned would be very rare. But I would still expect a lot of 5/10+ pros to experience sick downswings once or twice in their careers, since their winrates typically don't exceed 5BB/hour. But I could be wrong. I haven't done the math on downswings.

It's important to keep in mind though that I'm not a top player. I *hope* to be a top player, and think with the amount of study, planning, discipline, and intelligence I have, that it's very possible, but if I just jumped into a 2/5 game after a few weeks of 1/3 I would expect a very modest winrate or maybe not even that (and hence high variance).

But your point is well taken. I think I have the discipline to take shots at 2/5 and drop down to 1/3 when I get a stuck a few buy-ins. Doing this at my starting bankroll seems overly risky, but if I feel I'm a solid 1/3 winner I'd be willing to start taking shots at 2/5 maybe around $15k-$20k. Depends how well I'm doing.

I just don't want to be one of those players who switches games too soon, thinks they can beat the higher stake game, and then refuses to move back down out of pride when they get stuck several thousand.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
It's great that you have an online background. I also have an online background. However, this is an apples to orange comparison. No good players are going on a 1.7 year downswing in live poker. Attainable winrates are way too high. A good 2/5 player should at most have 1 or 2 losing months in a year, and they shouldn't be nearly as big as one's winning month. IE one can potentially win $15k in a month but the losing months will be more like -$3k.
You are right. I was basing my bankroll requirements off a particular table in one of Jonathan Little's books, and turns out I was reading the table incorrectly. The table gives bankroll requirements for a player winning X BB / 100 hands (I thought it said X BB / hour) for having a risk of ruin of 3%. So obviously X BB / 100 hands is more like X/3 BB / hour. Anyway, this table says someone who wins 13BB/100 (or roughly 4.25BB/hour) needs 3500 BBs, or at 2/5 $17500. And someone killing it at 25BB/100 (roughly 8.33BB/hour) needs 2000 BBs, or at 2/5 $10,000. We can assume I won't be killing it off the start but even a modest winrate of 2.33BB/hour needs only 6000 BBs, or $30,000.

So yes, $50,000 is likely way too conservative. Where did I get 100BB as suggested bankroll? I could have sworn I read that from multiple sources. Anyway, thanks for pointing that out. Probably going to save me some money, lol.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
I'm not saying because you are playing bad per se. I'm saying because it may take time to solve the puzzle that is live low stakes. I don't know your exact background but there is going to be a learning curve particularly if you are not just transitioning from online but also from MTTs. The play in live poker may be worse, but that doesn't mean you know the best lines to take to maximize your winrate. Nor do you have the necessary live experience to make optimal decisions in every spot.
Yeah I understand. I don't have much live experience and worse, most of my online experience is 45 man SNGs. I could beat the cash games online but had better hourly at the SNGs because I could play 24 at once vs. like 4.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
The thing is you have $35k saved and plan on growing. I guess we can go ahead and take the $24k out given that every person would be wise to have 6months of living expenses and because poker is not a typical job then having 12 months of living expenses is admirable IMO. Still, that leaves you with $11k bankroll. As I stated before, you should get a job well before your lose $11k at 1/2 and 1/3. To do otherwise, is degeneracy IMO.
Well, according to Little's table, I would need only a 2BB/hour winrate at 1/2 to have a 3% risk of ruin. Granted, that hourly is atrocious. I'm just saying it seems unlikely I'll go busto, even though I worry about it. For 1/3 I need more like a 3.33BB/hour winrate to have a 3% risk of ruin. I'm pretty sure I can handle that. If not, I've got no business playing poker anyway.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
I'm only recommending you take shots at 2/5 if you are running good, so perhaps you win $1k, then you can take 1 or 2 shots at a Saturday 2/5 game. This is not degeneracy. You still have over $10k for 1/3 and you will be taking shots at games that will probably only have 0 to 2 winning players per table. It's not a wide stretch to think that a good online player could come in and be a favorite in these games right out of the gate. You don't have to be as good as the best 2/5 grinders..you only need to be better than the players at your table.
This makes sense and is good advice. Thanks.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
BTW, that recommendation is just for Winstar. in Vegas I'd be much more inclined to stay at the 1/3 level for quite some time to develop my live poker game (albeit, it should be noted the vast majority of my Vegas hours have come on Weekdays....and I don't really have a good idea of how soft the weekend games are)
Noted. Thanks again for all the excellent advice.
Planning a move for poker - Vegas vs. LA vs. South Florida? Quote
04-23-2017 , 10:06 PM
This is intended to be friendly advice. I don't think you're serious you've been talking about this for two weeks but haven't stepped foot out of your house. If you were serious you'd be at Winstar instead of over analyzing everything.

I suggest you go up to Winstar for a day or two play and scope out the territory. I don't know your current situation with work or other committments but you need to make a decision, just stay flexible. They's a big difference between be at a row of casino's next to each other than with them all spread out.
Planning a move for poker - Vegas vs. LA vs. South Florida? Quote
04-23-2017 , 11:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud
What about Tampa? I can get a decent 2-bedroom there for estimate 800 to 1000 a month. I've only gotten input from one or two people about Tampa. Curious if it's a valid option as COL is fairly low and QOL higher than Gainesville TX for sure.
Tampa should be a good market.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud
The problem with playing at Winstar for say 3 weeks is it would be rather expensive. Pretty sure I'd have to stay in a hotel. And I live close enough (3 hours) to drive up for a week or so to try it out, but too far to go there and back in one day.
If you have friends in Dallas I'd recommend staying with them. Otherwise, I'd try to see if there was any possibility you could get a free room from Winstar on weekdays. They send out free offers to poker players every month. I believe the offer is 2 free nights in the first half of the month and 2 free nights in the 2nd half of the month. I know a guy that uses his and his wife's offers to get 4 nights free 4 weeks a month lol. Between their two offers he gets 2 free nights/week and apparently he just asks them and they allow him to stretch each stay to 4 nights.

They won't give free weekend nights to anyone but people that play in the pits so those would cost you.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud
And yeah from what I've heard in the Winstar thread is they have 2/5 running almost 24/7, except sometimes the games break at like 5 AM. But there is plenty of 2/5 action supposedly, and while the games are reportedly much tougher than 1/3, they are still very beatable.
When I played 2/5 for a living I mostly played graveyard, and everytime I went to the casino 2/5 was running and never broke. It may run a bit less frequently these days but it's still gotta run close to 24/7. Monday and Tuesday tend to be the slowest days of the week there. Friday and Saturday are the busiest.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud
Where? I don't want to avoid considering anywhere viable.
If you don't yet have the bravo poker app on your phone I recommend you get it because then you can get instant information on how many games are running at casinos across the country. It doesn't have all casinos but it has most of the major ones and it's free.

Off the top of my head: San Diego, Los Angeles, Bay Area, Seattle, Arizona (3/5 spread limit but pretty much same as 2/5 NL), Winstar, Hammond/Chicago, Tampa, Miami, Cherokee, Washington DC, Philadelphia, Foxwoods, Vegas, Atlantic City


Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud
Well I'm sure you're correct that at live games people have higher winrates, at least at lower stakes. And therefore downswings like I mentioned would be very rare. But I would still expect a lot of 5/10+ pros to experience sick downswings once or twice in their careers, since their winrates typically don't exceed 5BB/hour. But I could be wrong. I haven't done the math on downswings.
Attainable winrates at 5/T would depend heavily on the game. Many 5/T games play super deep which may lead to higher attainable winrates than you might expect. That being said, 5/T is a whole different animal with a lot higher level of competition in general.

The style of play in live low stakes tends to be different than online which leads to higher winrates but also means it's harder to go on a downswing. In live poker, players VPIP much higher than online and they play much more passively. Since they play their hands passively, this means you get in far fewer flip situations. Often your opponents will be putting large amounts of chips in the middle drawing to 5 outs or 2 outs, or even no outs in spots. It's really really hard for them to continue to hit their 2 outters time and time again as compared to online where you are more likely to be putting all your chips in as a 60% or 65% favorite. Also, the fact that they are so passive makes it possible to make seemingly ridiculous folds in spots and often costs your opponents a lot of value when they do have the best hand.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud
It's important to keep in mind though that I'm not a top player. I *hope* to be a top player, and think with the amount of study, planning, discipline, and intelligence I have, that it's very possible, but if I just jumped into a 2/5 game after a few weeks of 1/3 I would expect a very modest winrate or maybe not even that (and hence high variance).
Oh for sure. At the same time you don't need an $11k lesson to become a good 1/3 player. If I started my 1/2 and 1/3 career losing, I would go ahead and take a break well before I lost my entire $11k bankroll.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud
I just don't want to be one of those players who switches games too soon, thinks they can beat the higher stake game, and then refuses to move back down out of pride when they get stuck several thousand.
I've seen this before where a player capable of beating 2/5 ran it up to where he was regularly playing T/20. He ended up being breakeven for months and months at T/20 and 5/T and couldn't handle going back to 2/5 so he just quit poker altogether. You definitely don't want that to be you. (he claimed to be breakeven but may have actually lost money in those games)


Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud
You are right. I was basing my bankroll requirements off a particular table in one of Jonathan Little's books, and turns out I was reading the table incorrectly. The table gives bankroll requirements for a player winning X BB / 100 hands (I thought it said X BB / hour) for having a risk of ruin of 3%. So obviously X BB / 100 hands is more like X/3 BB / hour. Anyway, this table says someone who wins 13BB/100 (or roughly 4.25BB/hour) needs 3500 BBs, or at 2/5 $17500. And someone killing it at 25BB/100 (roughly 8.33BB/hour) needs 2000 BBs, or at 2/5 $10,000. We can assume I won't be killing it off the start but even a modest winrate of 2.33BB/hour needs only 6000 BBs, or $30,000.

So yes, $50,000 is likely way too conservative. Where did I get 100BB as suggested bankroll? I could have sworn I read that from multiple sources. Anyway, thanks for pointing that out. Probably going to save me some money, lol.



Yeah I understand. I don't have much live experience and worse, most of my online experience is 45 man SNGs. I could beat the cash games online but had better hourly at the SNGs because I could play 24 at once vs. like 4.



Well, according to Little's table, I would need only a 2BB/hour winrate at 1/2 to have a 3% risk of ruin. Granted, that hourly is atrocious. I'm just saying it seems unlikely I'll go busto, even though I worry about it. For 1/3 I need more like a 3.33BB/hour winrate to have a 3% risk of ruin. I'm pretty sure I can handle that. If not, I've got no business playing poker anyway.
Thanks for those numbers. That's good stuff. Most likely 100 buyins was for online . You definitely won't be a crushing player right out of the gate..although you may run insanely hot and post huge numbers regardless. So the fact that you are well rolled is good. However the goal should be to become as good you can possibly be. The game is ever changing and it's very important that you continue to improve just to keep up with the changes. I don't have everyone's winrates in front of me in a spreadsheet or anything but at Winstar there are some winning players with very poor fundamentals. It shouldn't be too hard to get above 5bb/hr there.
Planning a move for poker - Vegas vs. LA vs. South Florida? Quote
04-24-2017 , 01:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JackStraightUp
This is intended to be friendly advice. I don't think you're serious you've been talking about this for two weeks but haven't stepped foot out of your house. If you were serious you'd be at Winstar instead of over analyzing everything.

I suggest you go up to Winstar for a day or two play and scope out the territory. I don't know your current situation with work or other committments but you need to make a decision, just stay flexible. They's a big difference between be at a row of casino's next to each other than with them all spread out.
For the record, I was like deathly ill for a week until about five days ago. That delayed things somewhat. Also, I only heard of Winstar roughly four days ago. I'm not the kind of person who just drives a six hour round trip with no planning. I am in fact planning a trip to Winstar for about a week. Due to prior commitments with relatives this probably won't happen until the end of the month. But none of this means I'm not serious. Have you seen the volume of text I've written about this? Can you imagine how much research I've done into all these communities outside 2+2? I just ordered three more poker books arriving tomorrow and hope to read all of them within the week. You have no basis for saying I'm not serious just because you might approach things differently, and frankly it feels more insulting than "friendly."
Planning a move for poker - Vegas vs. LA vs. South Florida? Quote
04-24-2017 , 02:23 AM
Some thoughts/responses:

1. I pretty much agree with everything Dream Crusher has written on 1/2 poker, Vegas, etc. Some good insight from him and it mirrors my views/experiences in Las Vegas.

2. The notion that 1/2 games in Vegas are 65-70% regs is absurd, whoever told you that is wrong. Now, I would agree the 1/2 games at 1pm on a Tuesday are regfish/OMC/local nit heavy...I won't debate that. But you really shouldn't be playing any day games in Vegas at any blinds anyways. Just play at night and you'll be perfectly fine.

The 1/2 games in Vegas are perfectly soft and easy, I assume comparable to just about anywhere else in the US. I've never sat at a 1/2 in Vegas where I wasn't 100% confident I was the best player at the table. I don't typically feel that way at 2/5 unless it's a rare great game, March Madness, etc.

3. Regarding it being -EV to live in a desolate ****hole, that's my opinion and certainly not a universal fact. For you, it might be worth a few bucks extra on your winrate to live in an undesirable place. If so, you should follow that. For me, I'd happily sacrifice those few bucks an hour to live in a city and environment I enjoy. You should go to what city/casino is the best fit for you and your goals.

Having said that, being a night owl and all, I think you'll find the 1/2 scene in Vegas profitable assuming you're solid at the felt. I know my winrate would go up considerably if I could find a way to work the graveyard shift there, but it throws my system off too much, so again I sacrifice the poker EV for the life EV.

The games toughen up considerably at the 2/5 level and above. If someone wanted to make the move to be a full time 2/5 or 5/10 pro, I would suggest they do not move to Vegas as there are softer markets out there.
Planning a move for poker - Vegas vs. LA vs. South Florida? Quote
04-24-2017 , 02:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Keaton
Some thoughts/responses:

1. I pretty much agree with everything Dream Crusher has written on 1/2 poker, Vegas, etc. Some good insight from him and it mirrors my views/experiences in Las Vegas.

2. The notion that 1/2 games in Vegas are 65-70% regs is absurd, whoever told you that is wrong. Now, I would agree the 1/2 games at 1pm on a Tuesday are regfish/OMC/local nit heavy...I won't debate that. But you really shouldn't be playing any day games in Vegas at any blinds anyways. Just play at night and you'll be perfectly fine.

The 1/2 games in Vegas are perfectly soft and easy, I assume comparable to just about anywhere else in the US. I've never sat at a 1/2 in Vegas where I wasn't 100% confident I was the best player at the table. I don't typically feel that way at 2/5 unless it's a rare great game, March Madness, etc.

3. Regarding it being -EV to live in a desolate ****hole, that's my opinion and certainly not a universal fact. For you, it might be worth a few bucks extra on your winrate to live in an undesirable place. If so, you should follow that. For me, I'd happily sacrifice those few bucks an hour to live in a city and environment I enjoy. You should go to what city/casino is the best fit for you and your goals.

Having said that, being a night owl and all, I think you'll find the 1/2 scene in Vegas profitable assuming you're solid at the felt. I know my winrate would go up considerably if I could find a way to work the graveyard shift there, but it throws my system off too much, so again I sacrifice the poker EV for the life EV.

The games toughen up considerably at the 2/5 level and above. If someone wanted to make the move to be a full time 2/5 or 5/10 pro, I would suggest they do not move to Vegas as there are softer markets out there.
Yep as a vegas grinder at 1/2 1/3 with some 2/5 sprinkled in I agree with all of that.

Sent from my 0PM92 using Tapatalk
Planning a move for poker - Vegas vs. LA vs. South Florida? Quote
04-24-2017 , 09:20 PM
As a graveyard grinder, I would go to Vegas and take advantage of the big nightlife there, when the bars/nightclubs die out and drunk partyers want to play poker, which adds to the potential couple of drinkers who might already be at the table late night.
Planning a move for poker - Vegas vs. LA vs. South Florida? Quote
04-24-2017 , 09:48 PM
Vegas serves alcohol 24/7, and it's free. Winstar has last call at 1:30am. Drinks are all picked up by 2am. They then start serving again at 10am. Beer in Oklahoma is only 3.2% abv and the customers have to pay for it.
Planning a move for poker - Vegas vs. LA vs. South Florida? Quote
04-24-2017 , 11:38 PM
I have lived and played full time in vegas for many years. I agree with pretty much everything mr dreamcusher sez

I am currently living and playing tampa

as of may 1 their rake is going to a 5+2

If you are planning on playing 1/2 here the games are good and plenty of em but this rake is brutal v a vegas type of structure...this will cost you massively if you are playing full time hours

it is 10% they round up and rake pre

ie 2/5 game 1 limper I raise everyone folds they rake 2+1
i steal the blinds they rake 1+1

I have never played 1/2 here so I am unsure of how they do it exactly
the 2nd dollar for the bbj will go in when the pot hits 20
Planning a move for poker - Vegas vs. LA vs. South Florida? Quote
04-25-2017 , 01:39 AM
Sounds better than California.
Planning a move for poker - Vegas vs. LA vs. South Florida? Quote
04-25-2017 , 03:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
Tampa should be a good market.
Mostly what I've heard, aside from one guy who said the people there are scum (didn't elaborate). Squidface says rake is going up to 5 + 2, which seems horrendous. A compelling argument could be made that I should move to Tampa solely due to the tech industry there, because if I fail at poker I'd have a much easier time finding a job there. Seems like a negative attitude to assume I'm going to fail though.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
If you have friends in Dallas I'd recommend staying with them. Otherwise, I'd try to see if there was any possibility you could get a free room from Winstar on weekdays. They send out free offers to poker players every month. I believe the offer is 2 free nights in the first half of the month and 2 free nights in the 2nd half of the month. I know a guy that uses his and his wife's offers to get 4 nights free 4 weeks a month lol. Between their two offers he gets 2 free nights/week and apparently he just asks them and they allow him to stretch each stay to 4 nights.
I have a couple relatives in Denton. They might let me stay for a few days but more than a week would be awkward.

How does one get these free offers from Winstar? Right now I'm thinking to visit the week of May 1 and just stay in a hotel in Gainesville somewhere.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
When I played 2/5 for a living I mostly played graveyard, and everytime I went to the casino 2/5 was running and never broke. It may run a bit less frequently these days but it's still gotta run close to 24/7. Monday and Tuesday tend to be the slowest days of the week there. Friday and Saturday are the busiest.
How recently have you been there? TexasKK said in the Winstar thread the 2/5 games usually don't go all night. He also said the 1/2 and 1/3 games were 55-75% regs and probably tougher than Vegas? Which is like the opposite of what you said, I think.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
If you don't yet have the bravo poker app on your phone I recommend you get it because then you can get instant information on how many games are running at casinos across the country. It doesn't have all casinos but it has most of the major ones and it's free.
Thanks, just downloaded it on your recommendation. Says right now (120 Central) there are 2/5 games going in all the markets I'm looking at. Two tables at Wynn. Five at Venetian. Five at Bellagio. Four at Aria. Two at Winstar. Three at Seminole Hard Rock Tampa. Four at MGM National Harbor. Two at Maryland Live. Three at Seminole Hard Rock Hollywood.

Of those, there's 5/10 going at Wynn, Venetian, Bellagio, Aria, MGM National Harbor, Seminole Hard Rock Hollywood. 10/20 only at Bellagio.

It's interesting but looks like Vegas, Winstar, Tampa, Maryland, and SF would all be good for low stakes or mid stakes, with high stakes limited to Vegas, Maryland, and SF. Commerce doesn't show up on the searches for some reason but should be on that list obviously.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
Off the top of my head: San Diego, Los Angeles, Bay Area, Seattle, Arizona (3/5 spread limit but pretty much same as 2/5 NL), Winstar, Hammond/Chicago, Tampa, Miami, Cherokee, Washington DC, Philadelphia, Foxwoods, Vegas, Atlantic City
Yeah I found most of these on the Bravo App, except Seattle. I thought they didn't have NL in Washington? If I were choosing solely on QOL I would pick Seattle or Portland, but AFAIK it's mostly donkaments there. But I'm not well informed...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
The style of play in live low stakes tends to be different than online which leads to higher winrates but also means it's harder to go on a downswing. In live poker, players VPIP much higher than online and they play much more passively. Since they play their hands passively, this means you get in far fewer flip situations. Often your opponents will be putting large amounts of chips in the middle drawing to 5 outs or 2 outs, or even no outs in spots. It's really really hard for them to continue to hit their 2 outters time and time again as compared to online where you are more likely to be putting all your chips in as a 60% or 65% favorite. Also, the fact that they are so passive makes it possible to make seemingly ridiculous folds in spots and often costs your opponents a lot of value when they do have the best hand.
Yeah, that all makes sense, but one disadvantage with live poker is it takes much longer to reach "in the long run." Results over a month playing online are pretty meaningful especially if mass tabling, even if one's winrate is lower. Playing live one table, unless you just have a phenomenal winrate I would worry about how long it takes for the variance to level out. I mean a day online is weeks live.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
I've seen this before where a player capable of beating 2/5 ran it up to where he was regularly playing T/20. He ended up being breakeven for months and months at T/20 and 5/T and couldn't handle going back to 2/5 so he just quit poker altogether. You definitely don't want that to be you. (he claimed to be breakeven but may have actually lost money in those games)
Yeah I'm a little worried about this. What I crave more than being a winning player is being a GOOD player, maybe one day being a world class player. I worry if I jump stakes too soon and can't win there, then maybe my ego can't take the fact I'm not a top player and I refuse to move back down to play with the fish.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
Thanks for those numbers. That's good stuff. Most likely 100 buyins was for online . You definitely won't be a crushing player right out of the gate..although you may run insanely hot and post huge numbers regardless. So the fact that you are well rolled is good. However the goal should be to become as good you can possibly be. The game is ever changing and it's very important that you continue to improve just to keep up with the changes. I don't have everyone's winrates in front of me in a spreadsheet or anything but at Winstar there are some winning players with very poor fundamentals. It shouldn't be too hard to get above 5bb/hr there.
You are welcome. Though really I should be thanking you as you got me to catch a bad mistake. It probably was about online poker re the 100BB bankroll. I know I've read that suggestion in a lot of books, but most of the books I've read were written pre Black Friday. Might have been a live tournament suggestion too, though I feel like you'd need even more.

God I hope I run insanely hot. Or even moderately hot. Even for like 3 days. Online I felt like I ran pretty average, maybe a little -EV overall. And I feel like I run bad at life. I don't believe in luck as an attribute people have or don't have, but I have not been lucky historically, which has made me a huge pessimist and now I'm thinking "more likely than not I'm going to start running bad" even though I know that phrase is absolute nonsense. If I'm a winning player, I'm more likely than not to start running good. I've just never had it happen. I've watched other players, online, on TV, and seen what insane heaters they go on, and I've never even approached that kind of luck. On the other hand, I can divorce results from expectation pretty easily. It never bothered me online when I ran bad. Probably a little harder to take live though given how obnoxious people can be.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Keaton
Some thoughts/responses:

1. I pretty much agree with everything Dream Crusher has written on 1/2 poker, Vegas, etc. Some good insight from him and it mirrors my views/experiences in Las Vegas.

2. The notion that 1/2 games in Vegas are 65-70% regs is absurd, whoever told you that is wrong. Now, I would agree the 1/2 games at 1pm on a Tuesday are regfish/OMC/local nit heavy...I won't debate that. But you really shouldn't be playing any day games in Vegas at any blinds anyways. Just play at night and you'll be perfectly fine.

The 1/2 games in Vegas are perfectly soft and easy, I assume comparable to just about anywhere else in the US. I've never sat at a 1/2 in Vegas where I wasn't 100% confident I was the best player at the table. I don't typically feel that way at 2/5 unless it's a rare great game, March Madness, etc.

3. Regarding it being -EV to live in a desolate ****hole, that's my opinion and certainly not a universal fact. For you, it might be worth a few bucks extra on your winrate to live in an undesirable place. If so, you should follow that. For me, I'd happily sacrifice those few bucks an hour to live in a city and environment I enjoy. You should go to what city/casino is the best fit for you and your goals.

Having said that, being a night owl and all, I think you'll find the 1/2 scene in Vegas profitable assuming you're solid at the felt. I know my winrate would go up considerably if I could find a way to work the graveyard shift there, but it throws my system off too much, so again I sacrifice the poker EV for the life EV.

The games toughen up considerably at the 2/5 level and above. If someone wanted to make the move to be a full time 2/5 or 5/10 pro, I would suggest they do not move to Vegas as there are softer markets out there.
Thanks again for your thoughtful responses and time taken in addressing my questions and concerns.

1) It does seem like good advice, but it's good to have it seconded by another guy who seems to know what he's talking about

2) Carnivore said 65% regs. I can't remember who said 70%. I think maybe it was in the SF thread. Also, TexasKK in the Winstar thread said the 1/2 games there were 55-75% regs? They must be regfish. There can't possibly be this many winning players at live 1/2.

Yeah I anticipate never playing at 1PM. I'm rarely even awake then. Only time I would be playing then is maybe if I felt like a tournament and there was a good one going. I naturally sleep like 10 AM - 7 PM. It's been very disruptive in "normal" life (school, finding a job, etc.) but maybe it actually can help me here.

3) I get why you would say it's -EV to live in a desolate hole from a "live life to the fullest" perspective, but if we're just talking grinding up a bankroll, isn't it by definition +EV? Unless, as previously stated, it makes me play worse or hate poker or something, which is possible, but doubtful over the anticipated one to two year period I'd live in said desolate hole.

I still want to go to Vegas or Tampa, even if the games are slightly tougher than Winstar, which I'm not totally convinced they are. But I made the mistake of telling my parents about Winstar, and they along with my entire extended family live in Texas, so there is a lot of pressure from them for me NOT to move to Vegas or Tampa, or Maryland for that matter. Seems all the great Texas Hold 'Em spots are located about as far as possible from Texas. Bizarre.

Well, current plan is I will be taking a trip to Gainesville and Winstar for minimum 4 to 5 days the week of May 1. If the place strikes me as complete hellhole and/or totally reg-infested, then not sure what to do. A lot of people have placed value on moving to Vegas by June 1 due to WSOP, but that timetable may no longer be feasible with me visiting Winstar first, particularly if I want to take a trip to Vegas also, which I think I would. I don't relish the idea of moving anywhere blind.

@squid face

Is this rake increase at all the Tampa casinos or just some of them?

And is that $2 drop + 10% rake capped at $5? And if so is it no flop no drop? Or are they take $7 every hand??

And do you feel the games will still be easily beatable despite the rake increase?

One of the things that worries me about moving pretty much anywhere but Vegas is arbitrary rake increases. Seems like Vegas has been relatively consistent in that regard at least.
Planning a move for poker - Vegas vs. LA vs. South Florida? Quote
04-25-2017 , 04:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud
Mostly what I've heard, aside from one guy who said the people there are scum (didn't elaborate). Squidface says rake is going up to 5 + 2, which seems horrendous. A compelling argument could be made that I should move to Tampa solely due to the tech industry there, because if I fail at poker I'd have a much easier time finding a job there. Seems like a negative attitude to assume I'm going to fail though.
That's like saying that semibluffing is for wimps and that real men only bluff with air because having a draw to fall back on is assuming that you will fail. Or saying that bankroll management is for bad players because a good player wouldn't expect to lose that much. Prudence is a virtue.


Quote:
It's interesting but looks like Vegas, Winstar, Tampa, Maryland, and SF would all be good for low stakes or mid stakes, with high stakes limited to Vegas, Maryland, and SF. Commerce doesn't show up on the searches for some reason but should be on that list obviously.
If you are using Bravo's search function, Commerce lists their games by buyins, not blinds. I would guess that the 500-1500 NL game has 5/10 blinds. The Bicycle list can be seen on Poker Atlas.
Planning a move for poker - Vegas vs. LA vs. South Florida? Quote
04-25-2017 , 04:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud
Mostly what I've heard, aside from one guy who said the people there are scum (didn't elaborate). Squidface says rake is going up to 5 + 2, which seems horrendous.
It's not that bad if you move up in level. That's one of the reasons you should be shooting to get to 2/5+.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud
I have a couple relatives in Denton. They might let me stay for a few days but more than a week would be awkward.
You should only need a few days at a time. As long as you aren't waking them when you get home it shouldn't be too awkward. You really only need it for sleeping and that's it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud
How does one get these free offers from Winstar? Right now I'm thinking to visit the week of May 1 and just stay in a hotel in Gainesville somewhere.
Just have a players card and they send them I believe. Maybe you can talk to the poker room manager or the players card desk.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud
How recently have you been there? TexasKK said in the Winstar thread the 2/5 games usually don't go all night.
It's possible the games have died down but I would still be surprised if they didn't generally go all night. It's 3:40am on the slowest night of the week right now and there are two 2/5 games, one 1/2 game (1 just broke), and one 1/3 game. It looks like there's no lists so they are likely all short handed but still if there is a night you probably won't be playing it's Monday night and the games are still going.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud
He also said the 1/2 and 1/3 games were 55-75% regs and probably tougher than Vegas? Which is like the opposite of what you said, I think.
The vast majority of players at Winstar are regular players in the game. I could go away for a couple years and come back and know most of the players at a 2/5 or 5/T table. However, most of them are terrible. My view of 1/3 and 1/2 players is that they must be terrible because why haven't they moved up to play the 2/5 games which are quite soft. Perhaps some of them are new like you. Perhaps some of them have bankroll issues. However, in general I think they just suck. I'm not buying that a Winstar 1/3 game is tougher than say a Bellagio 1/3 game. Either way though they are both very beatable.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud
Yeah I found most of these on the Bravo App, except Seattle. I thought they didn't have NL in Washington? If I were choosing solely on QOL I would pick Seattle or Portland, but AFAIK it's mostly donkaments there. But I'm not well informed...
Perhaps you are correct. I believe they have $500 max bet spread limit like Arizona.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud
Yeah, that all makes sense, but one disadvantage with live poker is it takes much longer to reach "in the long run." Results over a month playing online are pretty meaningful especially if mass tabling, even if one's winrate is lower. Playing live one table, unless you just have a phenomenal winrate I would worry about how long it takes for the variance to level out. I mean a day online is weeks live.
I'm not really sure why you would worry about such things in live poker. You can just look at how the other players play and realize how terrible they are and that you are guaranteed to beat them in the long run if you make good decisions.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud
I still want to go to Vegas or Tampa, even if the games are slightly tougher than Winstar, which I'm not totally convinced they are. But I made the mistake of telling my parents about Winstar, and they along with my entire extended family live in Texas, so there is a lot of pressure from them for me NOT to move to Vegas or Tampa, or Maryland for that matter. Seems all the great Texas Hold 'Em spots are located about as far as possible from Texas. Bizarre.
You need to live life for yourself. If they don't like that you choose to live in Vegas then tell them to go live in Thackerville.
Planning a move for poker - Vegas vs. LA vs. South Florida? Quote
04-25-2017 , 05:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud
@squid face

Is this rake increase at all the Tampa casinos or just some of them?

And is that $2 drop + 10% rake capped at $5? And if so is it no flop no drop? Or are they take $7 every hand??

And do you feel the games will still be easily beatable despite the rake increase?

One of the things that worries me about moving pretty much anywhere but Vegas is arbitrary rake increases. Seems like Vegas has been relatively consistent in that regard at least.
You directed your questions to squid face, but as someone who has played in casinos in SoFla for years that have always been $5 + $2, I think I can answer them for you.

First of all, if Tampa is anything like the 10+ casinos in Miami/Ft. Lauderdale/WPB, you can pretty much not concern yourself with the $2 promo drop as the vast majority of it is just returned to players in the form of high hand promos. For example, I was playing $2/$5/$10 at Hialeah yesterday and they were giving out $1500/hr, alternating between $750 every 30 minutes & $500 every 20 minutes. As a full-time player, the promo drop should be theoretically neutral to you over the long term since you'll win your fair share of high hands over the course of a year or years. (Rather than the prospect of maybe winning a once-in-a-lifetime BBJ.)

The rake itself is 10% up to a max of $5. It's not a drop as it is in L.A. As for how it is taken, that varies by casino, as I believe I already may have posted earlier in this thread. For example in the Miami area, Gulfstream is no flop no drop. Magic City on the other hand, will take $2 + $1 if you just steal the $7 blinds in a $2/$5 game. (Which is worse than squid's Tampa example of taking $1 + $1.)

And to answer your last question: yes, the games are easily beatable, and no, the $5 rake (and the neutral ev $2 promo drop) should have no effect on your ability to make a living playing poker. Far more important than the rake, is your ability to play poker. And you really don't even need much ability to be successful in SoFla, you just need to take the game seriously. I am a glorified rec player, playing 15-20 hours/week at some of the worst times to play (weekday mornings and afternoons), and even I average over $30/hr. ($30.13 to be exact, according to my Poker Sessions app.)

As someone who lived and played poker for years in LV, and now lives in Miami/Miami Beach, I think SoFla is much softer. Vegas gets more tourists, but the locals here are horrific. They like to gamble and many treat poker just like any pit game. They'll play any two cards, at any time, from any position. I played with one guy yesterday for 6+ hours, and I swear to you, he did not fold one hand the entire time I was at the table. He even called an all-in from a short stack ($200) with 8-3 off. Although he lol lost that hand, a short while later he cracked someone's aces with Q9 suited for $500 when the aces shoved all-in pre, he called, and the board ran out Qxxx9. Although he won a few of those types of hands during the course of the afternoon, the maniac ended up going through about $4k-$5k while I was there.

The day before, I was at Magic City, and everyone was talking about a similar maniac who had been there the night before (Sat) who dropped $20k in a $5/$10 game doing something similar. So there may not be many tourists in the local poker rooms (most of the tourists - and the pros for that matter - can be found at Hard Rock), but there's plenty of loose money and terrible players here.
Planning a move for poker - Vegas vs. LA vs. South Florida? Quote
04-25-2017 , 05:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BDHarrison
That's like saying that semibluffing is for wimps and that real men only bluff with air because having a draw to fall back on is assuming that you will fail. Or saying that bankroll management is for bad players because a good player wouldn't expect to lose that much. Prudence is a virtue.
I'm not sure you understood me correctly, or maybe I just didn't express myself clearly. I wasn't saying having a job to fall back on is bad. I actually listed it as a plus, so your analogies seems a bit specious. My point was that I want to play poker professionally, and choosing a location primarily because it's the best spot for if I fail at poker, well that seems overly negative, especially given that the bankroll and living expenses I've saved as well as my history of learning to beat online games at a respectable hourly very quickly, these facts together should give me excellent chances at beating 1/2 and hopefully higher. I am definitely considering Tampa, FWIW.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BDHarrison
If you are using Bravo's search function, Commerce lists their games by buyins, not blinds. I would guess that the 500-1500 NL game has 5/10 blinds. The Bicycle list can be seen on Poker Atlas.
Ah. Thanks for the clarification. I used Poker Atlas for a lot of my initial research. Their rake structure is incorrect for most casinos outside Vegas. Do you know any site that has a compendium of accurate rake structures?
Planning a move for poker - Vegas vs. LA vs. South Florida? Quote
04-25-2017 , 06:22 AM
@Dream Crusher

As always thanks for your thoughtful response. Your comments on the rake, Winstar regs, etc., all make sense, and I am inclined to believe you over the other commenter. I checked Bravo App and yep as of 430 Central Winstar still has two 2-5s going as well as one 1-2 and one 1-3. Should be plenty of night action. Anyway I will find out in person next week!

I guess why I would worry about variance is I plan to track my results, graph them, etc., and in live games it's hard to tell over a short period if the reported winrate is accurate or just variance. It's just peace of mind I guess. But there's nothing to be done about it, so yeah, worry is pointless.

Maybe you can come tell my parents to let me live life for myself?

In the end it will be my decision, but they do exert a lot of influence on me. Financially I'm good for at least a year, but they've got other ways of expressing disapproval. Why I care is the better question, but I guess in the end family's all I've got. If I decide Vegas or Tampa and make it clear it's an important decision to me, I think they'll be disappointed but ultimately supportive. My Mom especially just has her hopes up I'm going to be living 3 hours away and come see them every month.

@DC2LV

I don't mind who answers the questions about Tampa, If I recall you've been pretty helpful in this thread and I do appreciate it.

I didn't understand that about the drop, that it ultimately goes back to the players. You're right that someone did explain this earlier in the thread butI didn't understand what he was talking about with the high hand promos, but I do now. And yeah, the high hand promos seem a lot better than bad bead jackpots. Good players experience bad beats less often so seems like the BBJ is unlikely to hit good players except once in a lifetime maybe.

You make poker sound super easy. "Recreational player" making $30/hour? I don't know your stake but at 1/3 that's 10BB/hour and at 2/5 6BB/hour. Either way, doing extremely well. I would be very satisfied to be making $30/hour within a year or two.

I realize there are more casinos, more players, and more 5/10 in South Florida vs. Tampa, but do you think they attract the same kinds of players? Bad locals, snowbirds, retirees, etc.? SF sounds great except the COL is a little out of reach. I don't know if it's a nice area, but I could live in Tampa 5 minutes from Seminole Hard Rock (the Seminole casinos particularly appeal to me since they run all night) for like $800-$1000 for a 2 bedroom apartment. Might even be cheaper than Vegas.

Without knowing anything about SF neighborhoods, I would expect $1400+ for a decent 2BR in a decent area within 15 minutes of Seminole Hard Rock Hollywood. If I could do it for 1100-1200 it would be tempting but the apartments I've seen in that range look terrible. And it doesn't have to be 15 minutes from that particular casino but I'd like to be within 30 of that one and a couple others if possible.
Planning a move for poker - Vegas vs. LA vs. South Florida? Quote
04-25-2017 , 10:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud
@DC2LV

"Recreational player" making $30/hour?
Recreational is sort of a nebulous term that can mean different things to different people. I categorize myself as a recreational player because I play poker for fun as a hobby and not to supplement my income. In fact, the money is pretty inconsequential to me other than as a way to "keep score" and as a way to monitor how successful I am at it. If I was playing mainly to make money to supplement income from a regular job, then I would characterize myself as a "reg." I suppose others might call such a person a lol "semi-pro."


Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud
I don't know your stake but at 1/3 that's 10BB/hour and at 2/5 6BB/hour. Either way, doing extremely well. I would be very satisfied to be making $30/hour within a year or two.
I play $2/$5NL, so it's 6BB/hr. Not bad, but I hope to improve; I still have quite a few leaks.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud
I realize there are more casinos, more players, and more 5/10 in South Florida vs. Tampa, but do you think they attract the same kinds of players? Bad locals, snowbirds, retirees, etc.? SF sounds great except the COL is a little out of reach. I don't know if it's a nice area, but I could live in Tampa 5 minutes from Seminole Hard Rock (the Seminole casinos particularly appeal to me since they run all night) for like $800-$1000 for a 2 bedroom apartment. Might even be cheaper than Vegas.
I've never played in Tampa, so I can't compare what the players are like there as opposed to Miami/Ft. Lauderdale. I know that you took my earlier advice and posed some of your questions in the South Florida Regional Communities Forum. Given that you're now considering moving to Tampa, and specifically asking about SHR there, you should ask your questions in that thread in the Poker Venues Forum.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/19...9-28-a-817164/

Best of luck on whatever location and course of action you ultimately decide upon.
Planning a move for poker - Vegas vs. LA vs. South Florida? Quote
04-25-2017 , 11:41 AM
@shai - this rake increase is specific to SHRT. As I stated in my post they rake and drop the BBJ preflop. It is my opinion that these guys do not return 100% of what they rake for the bbj to players so you can not count on getting it returned...but that is another story.
Planning a move for poker - Vegas vs. LA vs. South Florida? Quote
04-25-2017 , 11:59 AM
It should be noted that the Winstar drop is not a true promotional drop. People assume it is but the promos are few and far between and the bad beat is typically minuscule compared to similar bad beats at other casinos.

It should also be noted that Vegas rake has increased in several casinos in the past year. I believe Venetian even added a promo drop.
Planning a move for poker - Vegas vs. LA vs. South Florida? Quote
04-25-2017 , 03:36 PM
LA if you can afford it and its not even close
Planning a move for poker - Vegas vs. LA vs. South Florida? Quote
04-25-2017 , 03:56 PM
I thought the rake was supposed to be too prohibitive in Los Angeles to make a living playing 1/2 or 1/3, particularly given the cost of living. Even KingKrab was primarily playing the 3/5 there and he was homeless living out of his car (which, I suppose is another option, get a gym membership for showers).

Unless LA means Louisiana in which case I hear they have an uncapped 1/3 game where certain players regularly donate large sums of money to the poker community.
Planning a move for poker - Vegas vs. LA vs. South Florida? Quote
09-16-2017 , 07:24 PM
Shai Hulud - update? I'm figuring you most likely made a choice by now and have moved?
What's been your experience thus far?

I'm thinking of doing similar myself and have come to many similar conclusions and have done a lot of research as well, particularly in ref to COL vs how good games are in each place. Particularly, I'm trying to get a bead on whether or not the L.A. 5/5 or even 3/5 scene is juicy enough ALL THE TIME (I've played them a fair bit anywhere from Thursday night to Sunday night, but what about like a Tuesday?) to counter the considerably higher COL? Anyone?

For me, Florida is a consideration, but a distant third as I have a daughter in social and a brother in LV.
Planning a move for poker - Vegas vs. LA vs. South Florida? Quote
09-17-2017 , 02:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3B-U-LIGHT
Shai Hulud - update? I'm figuring you most likely made a choice by now and have moved?
What's been your experience thus far?

I'm thinking of doing similar myself and have come to many similar conclusions and have done a lot of research as well, particularly in ref to COL vs how good games are in each place. Particularly, I'm trying to get a bead on whether or not the L.A. 5/5 or even 3/5 scene is juicy enough ALL THE TIME (I've played them a fair bit anywhere from Thursday night to Sunday night, but what about like a Tuesday?) to counter the considerably higher COL? Anyone?

For me, Florida is a consideration, but a distant third as I have a daughter in social and a brother in LV.
Yes I moved to Tampa in late July and have been grinding 1/2 full time since August. I also got a few hundred hours in Texas (Winstar and some grey area card rooms) and on a previous trip to Tampa before moving.

The games seem plenty soft here. I've played almost entirely at the Hard Rock as it's closest to where I live. I think I have around 500 hours total now, about half of that in Tampa. My sample size isn't big enough yet to draw many conclusions from my results except I'm winning, but from observations of other regs here I think I am one of the better players at this level. Then again everyone thinks that.

But it's going well and my BR is now around 16k so I'm going to start taking shots at 2/5.
Planning a move for poker - Vegas vs. LA vs. South Florida? Quote
09-17-2017 , 03:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shai Hulud
I think I have around 500 hours total now, about half of that in Tampa. My sample size isn't big enough yet to draw many conclusions from my results except I'm winning, but from observations of other regs here I think I am one of the better players at this level. Then again everyone thinks that.

But it's going well and my BR is now around 16k so I'm going to start taking shots at 2/5.
Presumably you are keeping track of your stats. So how much did your bankroll increase? IN post one you said you were using $11,000 for your roll and now it's at $16K. So you have won $5000 in 500 hours, for an hourly of (let me get my calculator ) $10/hour. Is this accurate?
Planning a move for poker - Vegas vs. LA vs. South Florida? Quote
09-17-2017 , 04:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by drbeechwood
Presumably you are keeping track of your stats. So how much did your bankroll increase? IN post one you said you were using $11,000 for your roll and now it's at $16K. So you have won $5000 in 500 hours, for an hourly of (let me get my calculator ) $10/hour. Is this accurate?
Not quite that bad but close. I had to take some money out of the bankroll so ended up starting with 10k. Also I made some serious procedural mistakes in Texas and dropped to about 9k before the move. I think I've improved quite a bit since I started so I'm not worrying much about my overall winrate but more how I am playing lately and in particular against this player pool in Tampa.
Planning a move for poker - Vegas vs. LA vs. South Florida? Quote

      
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