Quote:
Originally Posted by Sooga
Ok, I'm dumb. I just realized that when I wrote out suited king, I was thinking it had to be suited with one of the dealt aces. Obviously it needs to be suited with the non-dealt ace. So let's retry this:
AAAA+kicker: (4C4)(12C1) = 12 combos
AAA+non-suited K + kicker: (4C3)(1C1)(12C1) = 48 combos
AAA+non-suited 2 + kicker: (4C3)(1C1)(11C1) = 44 combos
and I don't know if AAAA+5 flips into AAAA4, but just in case: (4C4)(4C1)=4 combos
So, Total = 12+48+44+4 = 108 combos
Thus, the total probability of being dealt 4AWAK (with or without flip) is 108 / 52C5, or about 1 in 24,064 deals.
That seems right, in other words almost 10x as likely as without the flip. Question- do you calcs for AAA + non suited K/2 and kicker account for the fact that the cards can come in either of the remaining slots (eg, K, then kicker, or kicker then K)? I can't remember the nomenclature for combinations well enough anymore.
And yes, AAAA5 should flip to AAAA4 (EV improves).