I was staying at the Mirage a few weeks ago and don't recall seeing this flip variant game. The paytables are not that great but they do have a pretty huge video poker section.

If they do have this flip draw variant its unlikely they allow TDB on it but let us know !

Which hand has higher EV? AA954 or AA944?
Though it doesnt matter, I was dealt that hand and the pair became 5s.

The right EV hold in either case is just the aces. So even though AA954 could flip to either AA55 or AA44, it doesn't matter. And in either case, the flip didn't COST EV (it just didn't help in this case).

After reading about Flip and Pay, I had to give it a try. I went to the M Resort for lunch today. Random info/impressions:

- In addition to two machines at M Resort and one at Mirage, there are also two machines at Sunset Station, and two machines at Fiesta Henderson. So, seven machines in all of Vegas.

- I searched around a good ten minutes at M Resort looking for these machines. If you try it there, the machines are close to (straight out from) the cashier's cage. It's a bank of two machines.

- It was fun but extremely swingy, as you might expect.

- At M Resort, the TDB pay table is an odious 6/5 (!!!). But I tried it anyway, because science. I played quarters, and forgot to see if the pay table was better for dollars. Not sure what the pay tables are at the other casinos in town.

- You get a flip card fairly often. Sometimes it doesn't help at all (eg AAQJ7 turning into AAQQ7; at TDB you're only going to keep aces anyway). Maybe some other variants holding aces up makes sense.

- A shocking number of times I had a dealt two pair turn into a dealt full house. I mean, I played about 30 minutes, and had that happen 5 times. Maybe that was just run good.

- I had two times in 30 minutes where a flip got me a non-premium three of a kind which hit 4OAK on upper lines. (I was playing 5 lines). Once I got 3 aces with kicker on the bottom line but whiffed all five draws.

- Overall, fun and different. But 5 play is $12.50 a spin, and I was able to dispose of a few hundred dollars in 30 minutes - even with 5 dealt Full Houses and a couple (single line) non-premium 4OAKs, so I'm not sure how often I'll play it. Maybe for nickles or dimes (which I believe the machine did offer).

The 4 flipping to a 5 in the above example actually increases the probability of hitting 4 Aces or 4AWAK due to card removal even though we aren't going to hold it. The flip improves our hand even though I'm sure it's not the intended reason for the flip. It's one less non ace / kicker in the deck.

What im saying is, if AA954 flipped to AA944, it would benefit you to put a 4 back into the deck instead of a 5.

Right I hadn't considered the "one more kicker you can catch" aspect. So yes, 4 flipping to a 5 is better, 5 to a 4 is marginally worse. Do you remember what flipped to what?

It seems like that hand will autoflip to AA55, so better anyways.

This just happened:

Yeah if 7/5 TDB according to WOO is 98% payback, then 6/5 should be 96.5% or so. No thanks. As you pointed out, one makes fulls ALL THE TIME bc one pair turns into two, and two turns into a full on the deal a lot. So that change on the full house payout makes a big difference.

The game is too swingy to fade a crap paytable.

The TDB 25c single play game at MGM pays 8/5.

As I was waiting for my poker room seat, I sit down to the very first hand of 10JQK2 all spades. I hold the royal cards and redraw, keep my fingers crossed, as my name is not Leon, I am dealt an A of clubs instead.

I am still looking for my first dealt or redrawn royal.

THAT'S what we're looking for. I wonder if we've got a math whiz lurking that can calculate the probability of being dealt 4AWAK. I used to be pretty good at probabilities and combinations but it's been ridiculously long and I don't want to go through the headache of seeing if my back of the envelope calcs are correct.

According to the interwebs there are 2,598,960 five-card poker hands.

We should be able to work from that and see how many ways there are to get dealt four Aces (48), and how many of them have a kicker (12--2s, 3s, and 4s, right?).

So we get to 2,598,960 / 12 -> 216,850 to 1 against.

Like leon, it's been far too long since I was doing work with combinations, my approach is probably wrong.

That's fine for odds of getting dealt 4 AWAK. It's more complicated with this flip version (which is what I was wondering about). The way I'd calculate it- let's look at just the odds of being dealt 4 aces to slightly simplify things:

Odds of being dealt quad aces + (being dealt trip aces + a flip card) (basically two outs, eg if u have Ad As Ah and get the 2 or K of clubs it flips to 4 aces). But you need to calculate the odds of the trips + flip out of 5 total cards, and presumably there are 4 different ways it could happen (one for each missing suit). That's the part I can't remember how to do properly.

Hmm, if this flip game is in some Stations casinos, it may spread to others that I might want to visit, like Palms and Red Rock. I can't imagine Red Rock would not get it soon, they have so much vp. I even have a Stations players card.

Yeah, leon, that's tougher. Maybe something like this:

c(52,3) = 3 Aces (or any particular card) hands -> 22100 hands

Then we need the last two cards to be one of the two flip cards and one of the 12 kickers.

Of our set, seems like 49 hands give us the offsuit K flip, and 49 give us the offsuit 2 flip.

Of the first 49, 12 give us the kicker; of the latter, 11 give us the kicker.

So 12 (dealt straight) + 12 (K flip) + 11 (2 flip) = 35 ways?

2,598,960 / 35 -> 74,256 to 1 against.

That doesn't seem right, but I can't see where I've gotten off the rails.

The only odds I know is that it will never happen to me

I gave the math a try and got a way different result than golddog:

AAAA+kicker: (4C4)(12C1) = 12 combos

AAA+suited K + kicker: (4C3)(3C1)(12C1) = 144 combos

AAA+suited 2 + kicker: (4C3)(3C1)(11C1) = 132 combos

but I think I'm double counting scenarios where I have 2 suited 2's, so subtract those out: -(4C3)(3C2) = -12 combos

and I don't know if AAAA+suited 5 flips into AAAA4, but just in case: (4C4)(4C1)=4 combos

So, Total = 12+144+132-12+4 = 280 combos

Thus, the total probability of being dealt 4AWAK (with or without flip) is 280 / 52C5, or about 1 in 9,282 deals.

Ok, I'm dumb. I just realized that when I wrote out suited king, I was thinking it had to be suited with one of the dealt aces. Obviously it needs to be suited with the non-dealt ace. So let's retry this:

AAAA+kicker: (4C4)(12C1) = 12 combos

AAA+non-suited K + kicker: (4C3)(1C1)(12C1) = 48 combos

AAA+non-suited 2 + kicker: (4C3)(1C1)(11C1) = 44 combos

and I don't know if AAAA+5 flips into AAAA4, but just in case: (4C4)(4C1)=4 combos

So, Total = 12+48+44+4 = 108 combos

Thus, the total probability of being dealt 4AWAK (with or without flip) is 108 / 52C5, or about 1 in 24,064 deals.

That seems right, in other words almost 10x as likely as without the flip. Question- do you calcs for AAA + non suited K/2 and kicker account for the fact that the cards can come in either of the remaining slots (eg, K, then kicker, or kicker then K)? I can't remember the nomenclature for combinations well enough anymore.

And yes, AAAA5 should flip to AAAA4 (EV improves).

Yea, since the order the cards come in don't matter, those numbers account for all combinations, and not permutations, which are order-specific.

I like Sooga's calculations better than mine, nicely done.

Double Super Times pay.. Couldn't catch a multiplier. Aria

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Why did the king not flip?

Or one of the Qs become a J?

Man... that's basically my limited experience with DSTP summed up. Seems so difficult to get a big hand to line up with a multiplier. I think I'd walk away frustrated the vast majority of the time.