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Old 07-13-2017, 01:52 PM   #751
kkcountry
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Quote:
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Playing with fire there sir. I'm terrified of ever betting less than the max and then getting a dealt royal, 4 awak, etc. I think I'd either kill myself or rage-smash the machine and get 86'd.
You still get the full pay on the 5 credits, you're just not paying for/getting multipliers if you play 5 credits/line, right?

That's how I go about finishing a UX session at least
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Old 07-13-2017, 01:55 PM   #752
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Re: Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last?

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Originally Posted by kkcountry View Post
You still get the full pay on the 5 credits, you're just not paying for/getting multipliers if you play 5 credits/line, right?

That's how I go about finishing a UX session at least
Yes. In theory your last push on a UX machine should be for 5, not 10 credits so you don't pay for multipliers you're not going to use. OTOH, if you're intending to keep playing, then playing for only 5 credits has the potential to generate the tilt scenario I'm envisioning. Something like dealt straight, then you hit deal again, and see a dealt royal...
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Old 07-13-2017, 02:08 PM   #753
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Re: Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last?

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Theoretically the math on all draws should be the same regardless of the game. I know I've been through cold patches on all forms of games where it seems like you can't even make a full, let alone quads. The only thing I don't like about dreamcard are the cold patches- they SEEM worse bc you get premium draws so much more often (but pay for it). To get the draws over and over, yet blank them all... that's a soul crusher.
Yup. I don't really see any benefit to it. You pay a lot extra so I would rather just do something at minimal cost that still offers the occasional shot at multipliers and a big payday.
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Old 07-13-2017, 02:22 PM   #754
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Re: Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last?

Dreamcard sucks the money up more than any other variant, in my experience..
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Old 07-13-2017, 03:00 PM   #755
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Re: Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last?

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Originally Posted by pig4bill View Post
Yup. I don't really see any benefit to it. You pay a lot extra so I would rather just do something at minimal cost that still offers the occasional shot at multipliers and a big payday.
Sure, but dreamcard comes up about half the time, as opposed to 1 every 15 for the STP multiplier. And obviously for dreamcard it's a lot easier to be dealt trips in 4 cards than quads in 5. And 4 to a royal in 4 cards than a royal. You get what you pay for.
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Old 07-13-2017, 03:39 PM   #756
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Re: Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last?

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Wait, are you claiming that FH's and quads occur less frequently at dreamcard than other games??

And just some quick math (I think it's right, but if it's not, it should be close) says that blanking out trips (no FH or quads) 15 times in a row happens about 18% of the time. So that's hardly super rare or anything.
not a math forum but it's not even in the same universe

you should improve on trips 2 out 13 times, so blanking 15 times in a row has some astronomical odds and obv never happened
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Old 07-13-2017, 04:09 PM   #757
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Re: Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last?

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not a math forum but it's not even in the same universe

you should improve on trips 2 out 13 times, so blanking 15 times in a row has some astronomical odds and obv never happened
Not sure if I'm being trolled or not...

If you're dealt trips, you're only about 1/16 to improve to a boat, and 1/24 to improve to quads. I don't know where you're getting this 2 out of 13 number from, but no, trips don't improve 2 out of 13 times. Trips improve on average about 1 out of every 10 times.
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Old 07-13-2017, 04:52 PM   #758
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Re: Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last?

well show the math then

Last edited by Alpha Fish; 07-13-2017 at 04:53 PM. Reason: blanking is obv not astronomical it's about 8%
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Old 07-13-2017, 05:19 PM   #759
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Re: Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last?

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well show the math then
Ok, well let's start with the full house:

You have trips, and you discarded presumably 2 non-matching cards. You want your next 2 cards to be a pair.

There are 10 ranks that have 4 cards each, of which you want two. So that's 10(4C2) pairs there.

Then there are 2 ranks that you threw away 1 each of, so that's 2(3C2) pairs there.

So there are 10(4C2) + 2(3C2) = 66 ways to get a full house.

Now onto the quads.

Out of the two cards you're drawing, you want 1 of them to be the same rank as your trips. There's only 1 of those cards remaining, and the other card can be literally any of the 46 cards remaining.

So that's just (1)(46) = 46 ways to make quads.

Making quads and making a full house are mutually exclusive, so that makes a total of 66+46=112 ways to improve trips.

There are 47C2 total possible draws, so your total probability of improving trips is: 112 / 47C2 ~= .103607...

Thus the probability of whiffing on 15 straight draws is just (1 - 0.103607)^15, or approximately 19.4%.

In my original 18% estimate I was rounding and I used a couple of wrong numbers, so I think this 19.4% is the correct answer. But in any case, it's definitely NOT 8%. Someone out there correct me if I'm wrong!

Last edited by Sooga; 07-13-2017 at 05:28 PM.
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Old 07-13-2017, 05:25 PM   #760
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Re: Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last?

yeah I just recounted myself and 66 boats is correct not sure how it added up to 2/13 the first time lol

you got a mechanical error there though it's 112/1081 not 102, so comes out to 19% and change

my bad /derail carry on
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Old 07-13-2017, 05:30 PM   #761
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Re: Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last?

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yeah I just recounted myself and 66 boats is correct not sure how it added up to 2/13 the first time lol

you got a mechanical error there though it's 112/1081 not 102, so comes out to 19% and change

my bad /derail carry on
Yea, I'm an idiot, I had 46+66=102, not 112. I fixed it.

Thread, sorry for the derail, please, resume your normal video pokering activities.
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Old 07-20-2017, 12:23 PM   #762
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Re: Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last?

Leon its 12 more days until Vegas for me, where are all the big hits ? What have you been doing ? You killing it at the local ?
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Old 07-20-2017, 12:34 PM   #763
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Re: Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last?

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Leon its 12 more days until Vegas for me, where are all the big hits ? What have you been doing ? You killing it at the local ?
Have fun out there! Have hardly played since I've been back in SD (purposefully); trying to preserve a roll for Vegas trips.
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Old 08-03-2017, 06:58 PM   #764
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Re: Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last?

Chomping at the bit waiting for Leon's next trip report..
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Old 08-03-2017, 08:38 PM   #765
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Re: Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last?

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Chomping at the bit waiting for Leon's next trip report..
Well, I'm chomping at the bit to go again! Setting up a trip for the end of Aug with a slot tournament + hopefully some friends.
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Old 08-03-2017, 09:04 PM   #766
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Re: Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last?

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Well, I'm chomping at the bit to go again! Setting up a trip for the end of Aug with a slot tournament + hopefully some friends.
👍
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Old 08-03-2017, 10:18 PM   #767
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Re: Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last?

Hey, I'm offered a slot freeroll at CET the end of August!
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Old 08-08-2017, 03:53 AM   #768
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Re: Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last?

Orleans is having Ultimate X tournaments every Friday in August, lol.
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Old 08-08-2017, 04:00 AM   #769
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Re: Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last?

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Orleans is having Ultimate X tournaments every Friday in August, lol.


What's the buy in?
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Old 08-08-2017, 12:33 PM   #770
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Re: Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last?

8/7 Barona mini "TR"

I'm pleased to be able to write this one up for all of you. Consider it an appetizer to the next Vegas trip, scheduled for later this month...

As I said, I've managed to curtail my San Diego play to essentially zero, to preserve the roll for Vegas trips (which quite frankly seem to be more regular and more frequent than in the past). For the last few trips, I basically have left my roll in Vegas/insta-deposited funds as needed to pay for house expenses. I had a nice, impromptu 4 day weekend just now and on Sunday we got together with a good friend who lives in AZ- we haven't spoken in a year and it was good to catch up. Our friendship was forged one long weekend way back in 2004 in Vegas- before, we were just work acquaintances, but over the course of that weekend we bonded and clicked in one of those rare ways. I made a friend for life, who just so happens to be a fellow degen...

Anyways, so of course part of the convo on Sunday was about gambling- we got each other caught up on big hits, etc. That kind of set the itch which was at it's normal "dormant, but just below the surface" level to active desire to play. So, I took the opportunity on Monday to go. Had to withdraw money from the bank account which stung a bit, and of course that limited the amount I was willing to lose as well. I took out 900$ and with a 100$ offer in the mail brought my session roll to 1k. I knew I was likely looking at a quick bustout session.

I decided to go with 25c credit, multiline full pay TDB. I was playing 10 lines, so 12.50 a push (about my usual at Barona). The first 500$ went pretty fast. I got a little more play out of the next 400$, but didn't hit anything bigger than 400 credits (4 3's). I feed my last hundred dollar bill in assuming I'm going home in 1 minute, and have the thought "god damn I run bad here. I can't remember the last time I won". As if on cue...

Spoiler:


BOOM! If you don't count the dealt 4 AWAK with my dad in June (I kind of don't since we split that), it has been almost 2 yrs and one month to the day that I have been dealt this hand.

Any true degen will know what I was experiencing as the credits ran up. Happiness, obv, but also vindication and in a strange way validation. I had that thought as I drove up here, "I can't believe it's been over 2 yrs since I've been dealt 4 AWAK". True, I've had that thought on many sessions and DIDN'T get it, but of course we only remember the times it comes true. It sure makes you feel like you "knew" it was coming. Also odd how I had that thought literally just before I pushed the deal button again.

OK, so I'm booking a win this session, obv. Only question is how much will I let myself give back. I decide on 3k- meaning, I'm cool going home with a 6k win. I feed in more money and increase the lines...

I proceed to just abuse this machine. It's like it tried to make up for all the sessions where it just raped me. Here's just your standard "turn one ace into a top prize hand"- I think this happened 3 times yesterday.





22.5/1 shot comes in SIX times in 60 hands, TWICE with a kicker! This may be the sickest pic of the whole bunch IMO.



Oh, you know, 47/1 shot comes in three times in 50 hands. NBD.

I literally would feed in 500$ at a time and generally turn it into 2k or more. Sure, there were a few bullets that were completely dry and I lost the 500$ in 2 min, but the general slope was pure upswong. At some point I crossed the "up 12k" mark and decided I was going home with at least 10k profit. And I kept hitting...



Look carefully. I held NO CARDS. I made a ROYAL. Was I somewhat upset that I couldn't get dealt a royal on the deal? What do you think?



Just your standard 47/1 shot coming in three times again...



One ace into a top prize... again.



Pair of aces into quads TWICE.

It seems like I jumped from "up 12k" to "up 17k" pretty fast, which meant I was going home with at least 15k. I lost track of time- the next thing I knew, I was starving and of course elected to eat lunch at the machine- how could I leave? Gotta let those horses run as far as they can when they're actually running...



There's that 47/1 shot coming in three times AGAIN!



Hold 2 broadway cards. Make a royal...



There's that pair turning quads twice again...

Plus, over the session there were a bunch of quad a,2,3,4 w/kicker that came in that I didn't even bother to snap a pic of, a three card royal hit and two "4 to a royal" hits. I think I made a royal at least 5 times on this machine.

I'm now up 18k. The AC is blasting at this machine and I am freezing. Plus, I've now stuffed 1.5k back in in 5 min with no result. Time to mix it up just a bit- I say goodbye to my savior and head to hi limit, for 50c credit multiline full pay TDB action. Basically same game, higher denom. You may have noticed I was playing up to 80 lines at the 25c machine- I decide on 30 lines, 50c credits.

3 hands in I am dealt 4 to a royal and hit-

Spoiler:


TWICE! Handpay amount-



I proceed to hit THIS machine a few times- sorry if the amounts don't line up exactly with the hits- it should be right but I lost track with all the pics I took-







This one actually upset me a bit! Quads three times, but none with kicker, thus making it ONLY worth-





Shocked to get a handpay here bc I only started with a small pair. Quads twice, once with kicker.



At my height, I was up 21k. I stick 1k back in the machine with no result. I'm actually getting kind of tired and believe it or not, BORED. I'm basically trading punches- putting in 1-2k and hitting 1k ish hand pays. I decide to stuff 1k in UX, 50c credits and tell myself if I get a handpay I'm gone for the day. That 1k lasts about 30 min before it evaporates. Finally, I decide to sit at Extra Draw Frenzy, 50c credits, 10 lines. This machine has always been ice-cold for me- I figure if I'm ever going to hit on it, it'll be on a day like today...

Total waste. I'm now up 18k and decide to call it quits. What a day. 11 hand pays. Just an insane number of premium hands. Dealt 4 AWAK. Plus, I have AT LEAST one more Vegas trip completely paid for. And perhaps the most important thing- I literally couldn't think of anything else to play when I started getting bored. The UX paytables aren't great and the way I ran made it very unlikely I would hit anything there I really cared about. EDF cold as always. Full pay, multiline is where it's at, but that usually isn't that fun as well. So my takeaway is that I'm less likely to donk this money back at my old rate, and I think that's the best news of all.

Can't wait for Vegas! Thanks for reading!
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Old 08-08-2017, 12:40 PM   #771
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Re: Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last?

I remember originally avoiding this thread a long time ago because I figured "who cares about VP, I don't know the rules, can't be that good." Came in just to see what it was about a while ago and now follow it like a fiend. Legitimately the single biggest thread update I look for anywhere. Love it, well done!
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Old 08-08-2017, 12:43 PM   #772
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Re: Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last?

Sometimes there are just no words..

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Old 08-08-2017, 12:48 PM   #773
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Re: Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last?

sick.... absolutely sick.
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Old 08-08-2017, 01:02 PM   #774
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Re: Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last?

Leon, you ate at the machine? They brought food to you?
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Old 08-08-2017, 01:07 PM   #775
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Re: Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last?

Sick run Leon!
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