Quote:
Originally Posted by leon
Seriously. Only somewhat related, but I was thinking about this the other day. I've never thought much of Warren Buffett and even less so of the so-called "Wall St Wizards" or whoever. I mean, I invest in the market, but I know I don't know crap other than long term the market SHOULD end up better than when I started. I'm much more of a Nassem Talib, Black Swan, "I know I don't know, but other people think they know when they also don't know" kind of guy.
Warren Buffett et al are all geniuses, until they're not. They're right, until they're not. But any serious student of gambling and statistics knows over a large enough sample size, there are going to be outcomes that defy reason simply by chance only. I honestly think that Buffett's huge success was mostly dumb luck- he's the guy that flipped heads 10x in a row. Or the one monkey out of billions who randomly created the works of Shakespeare (to use another analogy). In any case, I know that over a large enough sample size there's going to be those few people who seem like world beaters, when it's all due to luck. Or that WSOP winner who, let's get real, won every fricking coin flip in front of him. Lose one and no one remembers their name- but they got lucky.
So I think I'm that one monkey that has managed to flip heads 10x in a row. Or 50. Whatever. I'll take it But I know it's just random bullshit. And yes, I feel awful for the guy on the opposite side of the distribution curve.
Interesting Warren Buffet story....(sorta)
Years ago I lived in the same town as the oracle. I was playing a lot of golf and young enough to join as a junior member, so I joined a small country club downtown. There was a crew of us that were degens and I learned all of the ways to gamble chasing the little white ball around.
After a while a buddy and I start playing regular Sunday morning games with a couple of old codgers. We were playing $5 Nassau’s automatic press when your down with a whole bunch of side gambles (snakes, sandies, greenies, barkies) we had weekly swings of $80 to $100 and thought we were ballers.
These two old guys we were playing with were a hoot and talked just as much smack on each other as we did as they exchanged .30 to ..50 cents at the end of the round.
Finally one week after listening to the cocky young dumbass (me)-giving the guys **** for not gambling for more during yet another post round smack talk in the men’s grille-the bartender waited til the old guys left and told us who we were playing with....2 of the original 5 guys to throw Warren a bone and gamble with him. They both had 9 figures net worth from just being in the right place at the right time and still they were playing for 10 cents a point
I quit giving them ****
(Not sure the point, other than I think it really ties into the luck aspect of life-these dudes weren’t anything more than sharp guys with some money to burn at the right time-turned into generational wealth because they happened to live in the right place)