Very interesting, thanks for the link..

While all of this is interesting, and I dont mean to nag...

Day 4 Please!!!!

Day 4

I slept pretty well again. It's our last full day here and we've got a cabana again. First day wife actually doesn't have to do work at all, either.

I'm intensely aware I lost 11k yesterday and at my height was close to 30k ahead. Since I'm booking a good win, I'd be pissed if I came home less than 10k up, so I actually only have 6k to play with. That's not enough if I run cold, not by a long shot. Of course, the only way to play, and get to play more, is to win, and you can't win if you don't play...

So, I head down for my usual AM session and in fairly typical fashion it's cold. I know I've had some good mornings, but I think in general I run like crap pre-breakfast. I've got to try and change this for next trip but it's going to be hard. I definitely need my morning coffee, and I wake up too early to bother everyone else for breakfast and I can't sit around for hours with the machines calling my name and NOT play. Anyways, I know I got pummeled this session, I think I lost 4k and no jackpots to speak of. That leaves me with a grand total of 2k on me for a craps session with wife, and if that's not a winner I don't know what I'm going to do (actually we know I'm going to play on and potentially win less, I just don't want to admit it to myself at this stage).

I head back upstairs, convince the wife to order Tableau poolside and off we go. I need to get this cabana going so I don't lose more money.







Looks like today will be nicer than yesterday.



I'm certainly predictable.



Wife's lobster cobb. I'm not a huge fan of dill, have to remember to ask them to not put dill on if I get this next time.

I hang out for a few hours, then decide to play some VP. I've accepted the fact that I'm likely not going to book a 10k+ winner, despite being up huge. I'm ok with this- let's get real, you can't win them all, I've run like god, AND I'm still going to win. It might not be that big but no way I give back 12k in less than 24 hrs.



OK, opened the account for the day!

Soon after, I get dealt quads number 3!



Darn- I was enjoying being the "king of dealt quads" but seem to be reverting back to "king of dealt NONPREMIUM quads" which is decidedly less cool.



AGH really need that kicker.



BOINK!



All in all, a solid session but I think I only booked a 2k win. Only stuck 2k for the day now.

Back to the cabana.





I should just stick with whiskey, too much sugar in most of these cocktails.

I think I actually feel asleep at some point at the cabana, and next thing I know it's pretty much time to shut down. Wife heads up to the room to change, and the plan is craps then dinner. Unfortunately, since it's Saturday the one 25$ min table is completely full, and anything else is too big for the wife. So we head back to VP, and BIL joins us.

I partner with BIL and we fire two bullets (so I'm in for 1600$) with no result. He nearly misholds something again and I good-naturedly laugh at him. My wife says "maybe it's something in the family", meaning she and her brother sometimes just don't see things which are obvious to me. I agree, and definitely say it's something. From there, we move to a discussion about how I need to keep one eye on them while they play (much less with wife) just in case they make a mistake, and my wife says that sometimes I correct when there was no need for a correction, she was going to figure it out. I say, "yes, but when I see your hand moving to a card you definitely don't want to hold, or I see it moving to "draw" before you've held the right cards, what can I assume OTHER THAN you were going to screw it up?". This has the potential to devolve into a fight, but then we get dealt quads number 4 and now we're talking about something else!



This hand was a perfect example of the above discussion. BIL is driving the machine, and the FIRST THING HIS RIGHT HAND DOES is move to the "draw" area. I literally scream at him to stop, HOLD THE F'ING QUADS FIRST (which he does), THEN we can start fist pumping. Wife says "he was going to hold them" and I say "yes, and what I am I supposed to think his right arm was doing?!" then I let it drop. Let's get paid.

We fire off the rest of that bullet so are basically even. BIL heads upstairs to change, I play on and hit-



I end up +1k for that session, so I'm -1k for the day.

Elio



Second time for me here, first for everyone else.





Tuna tartare, a legit 9/10. Think spicy tuna from a Japanese place, but with a Latin flair.



Truffle tostada, also 9/10. Amazing flavor, super crisp.



Carrots, forgettable. 5/10.



Kanpachi(?) ceviche, 6/10.



[B]Bone marrow, 8/10 but not enough food. Literally 99% bone, 1% marrow.



Tomahawk steak (which the bone marrow came with or I'd be more pissed at lack of food). 7/10.



Seabass, 9/10. The most tender seabass I've ever had.



Lamb barbacoa, 8.5/10. Amazing flavor, and went very well with the soft tacos they provided. In retrospect, I get two orders of these and skip the steak (which was much more standard).



Pineapple-caramel something. 7/10.



Tres leches, 7/10 but 9/10 presentation.



Churros, 8/10.

Overall, just such a solid, solid meal. Again, maybe it's the newness of Elio but this meal was great, and everyone else agreed. It's rare for me to give a dish 9/10 and we had a couple of them.

After dinner, it's time for-



Short buy in, in for 3k.

It's just another crappy craps session. Can't get anything going, lose more than we win, etc. Pretty unfun. BIL takes a shot but doesn't know what he's doing. Wife is distracted trying to teach him. There are enough 7 outs that seem to come every time a noob gonna noob... you know the feeling. It's just not fun. I think I lost 2.5k.

We head back to the Wynn and I give VP another shot.



I think I hit this maybe three hands in.

However, this is a trap. Things turn icy afterwards, but I have that memory of smashing 4AWAK early in the session fresh in my mind. I proceed to give back all of that and more. I think I only lost 1k, but to go from 4k+ to 1k negative for the session was mentally a kick in the nuts.

Day 4 result- -4.5k
Overall- + 11.5k

Day 5, final day

I sleep the best night's sleep of the entire trip. Maybe it's bc I know I'm going home later and I've been gambling pretty hardcore for days. Maybe it's bc if I want to lock in that 10k win I basically have nothing to play with. Dunno, but my wife is out of bed before me for the first time in basically ever in Vegas.

We've got to be out by noon which is a little early for our usual. We decide on room service for the final breakfast. Wife votes VP first, then food, then craps to finish things off. OK, that works. Maybe. I have to be prepared to dip below 10k up if VP is cold, but I'm going home with a win.





And it's not cold! I'm winning 10k or more for sure!

We played the majority of that off and I book a 2k win that session.



First breakfast all of us have together.

After breakfast, I get another quick VP session in and I give back 1.5k. Then, we all play craps. We finally catch a decent session and I get 6 built up to 510$ from 240$ (240-300-360-420-510). Nothing amazing, but at least BIL got to see how a warm dice table and increasing bets works. I booked an 800, 900? dollar win and now I have to head to the hi limit cage to redeem all my tickets. Wife elected to play one more roll (hers) and lo and behold actually managed to roll well when I wasn't there. I think her roll netted her a couple hundred bucks, so she's only stuck a few hundred for the trip.



Net result- +almost 13k.

I ask for a bag to carry the goods to the room- I literally just need a plastic bag or something. Of course, they don't have one, so they have to call the main cage, and of course this being the Wynn what arrives is-



Which is mine to keep, of course. I have to admit, it made me feel gangsta

One final check, and we're headed home!



Day 5 result- + 1.5k
Overall- +13k

Postscript- Two really solid meals. I think I need to start taking some more time off between places at the Wynn bc it helps keep things fresh. We've got another trip coming up soon and I've already made reservations at Kabuto trying to accomplish this.

Again, another really lucky trip, another 5 figure winner. Not much else to say, I know these results aren't typical but every time I book another winner it just makes me that much more confident and that much more ready for the next trip.

Thanks for reading! Post script sweet hits from local coming soon, just need to upload them.

Went to the local yesterday, had a great day. SO close to being an amazing day.



quad 4s, 80 lines... SO CLOSE to being a 40k hand!

Result-




I gave back way too much playing 100 lines just when the machine went icy... did manage to get a lot back just before I left.



This is a great result.

Won about 12k yesterday. Roll is the highest it's ever been.

Wow!!!!!!

Insert crazy great meme here....

Congrats!

5 of 5 quad aces are w/kicker.

That is amazing in itself..

Well, I did hold the kicker for the draw, so by definition they'll be 4 AWAK if it comes in. 5 coming in was the amazing part.

Leon, one craps question.

I think somebody told me once that your chips should be arranged in the rail such that low-value chips are on the outsides of your set, with higher-value chips in the middle.

I guess the idea is, if somebody goes to swipe some from you, they're going to grab off the end of the chips, and get less value.

I see your chips are not in any particular order. Is what I was told a non-issue?

That sounds like advice from someone who is super paranoid.

Most places only have these games at 25c, but I think a couple might have them even at $1 denomination. So let's say $1.

10/7/5 Double Bonus is 100.17% return (and has quite a complicated strategy. I haven't even bothered learning this game.). 10/6 DDB has a 100.07% return.

So let's say you're 1) an expert DB player, 2) are playing at $1 denomination, AND 3) you play super fast (say, 1000 hands/hr).

1000 hands/hr * $5/hand * 0.17% return = $8.50/hr.

So at the very very worst case, the casino is out $8.50/hr, and for most video poker pros, an $8.50/hr play isn't even worth getting out of bed for, so the casino doesn't really have to worry about pros/teams winning pulling tons of money from this machine. What they WILL get are the random tourists/casual players who see those '100+% payback!' signs and plop down and give it a shot. And most of them will lose. A lot. Even at a 100+% game.

Contrast that with the $2 full-pay Deuces game that Downtown Grand had for a few weeks, which returns 100.76%:

1000 hands/hr * $10/hand * 0.76% return = $76/hr. This kind of hourly will attract everyone and their mom, especially since FPDW is not a particularly hard game to get down pat, and the volatility is way lower than most other VP games. So it's no surprise that that game was shut down rather quickly. Grand opening, grand closing.

Well, it's solid advice. Doing anything to protect yourself from getting screwed/taken advantage of is always smart, esp in Vegas. I just haphazardly placed my chips in the rack as I picked them up. With the plexiglass right now it would be very hard to pinch a chip off someone's rack. Prior to plexi/covid I would semi-reflexively move my big chips to whatever was the safer side- eg if I had no one on my left, big chips go to the left. Sketchier looking person on my right? Big chips go to the left. So I never really sweated it, but yes all things being equal I would take small steps to make myself less of a mark.

Leon, seeing as you mentioned that your roll is at its highest level...

Can we please have another roll pic?

And cheers for this explanation, I always learn so much from this thread haha.

Thanks for the vicarious thrills, leon, I always appreciate and check often without posting in here much. It would be nice to get away for a few days of solid gambool, but too many kids, and the wife wouldn't have it anyway, so for me it's just an occasional local evening and I stick to live poker or maybe blackjack or craps if I really get crazy. I never got into VP because it just seems like slots and I never can stand the ding ding ding blooop bleep bloop doo doo do ding ding ding, but you're really making me reconsider

Thanks for this link. I tried it out cold to see how bad I would be at TDB 9/7 (99.578%) not that I would even know how to find games anyway. How bad really is playing 98.468 for 500 hands? I had warnings on so I quickly fixed some big leaks so my later play was much better after a poor start vs optimum.

Best part, or worst part since it's play money, thanks to leon and this thread I knew a dealt A9A9A was a draw on the aces, and of course hit A3AAA at single line and end the session around $9500 starting 500. Does this deal random or does it focus on mistakes or close spots to train?

Anything better or besides wizardofodds for VP strategy summaries? How about finding what's actually available reasonably close so I can focus on a game or 2 and not waste trips since I'm short on time? Only trip to Vegas was late last year with the wife and baby so no gambling whatsoever, just visiting family and walking the strip.

This is a hard question to answer because not all mistakes are equal EV-wise. If your mistakes were all extremely minor, then it's not too bad, though honestly 98.468 is still kinda a lot of mistakes. But of course if some your mistakes were large, then it's a disaster.

EDIT: actually I just checked out the freeslots trainer and it seems that it does calculate the overall EV in their 'session play' percentage (or at least I think it does). So if you're at 98.468, then I think that's your true EV return percentage. Whether that's a good or bad number depends on your loss tolerance, I guess. But I would also guess that 98.468 is pretty high compared to what most other casual players would get, especially on a game with like TDB, which is more complicated than JoB.

Maybe you should consider spending your mornings at a poker table taking advantage of the drunk/tired folks who've been there since the night before? You definitely won't lose as much as you can on the machines, although you also definitely won't win as much, lol.

Good luck and as usual, thanks for taking us along on the ride!

As a former grinder, no thanks. Here are just some of the many downsides if I were to play poker again-
- game has passed me by. I never really learned NL and I have no trouble imagining I'd be the fish
- I'm impatient. Years of instant fix from VP etc, I know there's no way I'll wait to get on a low limit table. If somehow I got on a list, I'd pass the time by... wait for it... VP. I'm sure I'd try to force the action in game too.
- can't win as much as you state
- can't stand your typical poker player. This really started to come up towards the tail end of my playing. Such egotistical, petty *******s. So wrapped up in the most +EV move and they all think they're geniuses when they make, let's get real, what is usually a fairly standard play. Or if it's not standard it's a close decision anyways. Agonizing over getting a 10$ comp here vs a 12$ comp there, tip the dealer 1$ per pot, 1$ every other pot, etc. I get some people don't have much money and that's fine. But surrounding myself with a bunch of life nits and having them agonize over every 50c EV decision, and then looking smug if they happen to make a great play on me... meh whatever. I call these people "life fish". They might have the game figured out but they're sure not living any kind of life I'd want to have.

So yeah, VP, coffee and solitude it is.

+1 mirrion to that... I think VP might literally be the only game in the casino where:

1) you don't have to deal with anyone else,
2) your decisions actually make a difference (i.e. winning and losing is not completely random),
3) it's completely plausible to be a long-term winner, when you factor in comps, and
4) you have the possibility of winning an exciting big jackpot.

Duh, somehow I missed that..

This is why I fell in love with the game. Once I stopped playing poker I did the craps thing, did the blackjack thing... kept thinking "why would I play a machine? Machines are a rip off". I gotta give my dad credit here, he converted me.

Speaking of my dad, another upside of VP is it's totally easy to partner with people on. Only thing sweeter than hitting a jackpot is hitting one with a friend you both have skin in the game.

Leon--amazing TR as usual. Thanks for sharing. One minor observation is that many of your photos have a glare that obscures the first digit of the payout total---not sure if you noticed, but sometimes we have to infer the total. maybe try a slightly different angle? Not a big deal. Thanks again. Keep up the good luck.

Life Fish BTFO

Number two just seems silly. Vp decisions are no different than blackjack decisions, and are even more static.


Number 4 is definitely the key. Nothing like the sudden stroke of a single line royal when you've been plugging away for hours, wishing you were dead and had never picked up this stupid game.

I legit can't believe it has (had?) a place in my life. Ive played 8/5 bonus (99.17%, about as low variance as vp gets these days) single line quarters each of the last two mondays at a bar to sip draughts during MNF. And I just know there is a 90%+ chance I lose, a 1% chance I hit a ****ing royal and win some ok money, and seriously like a 3% chance I even win $100. First time I lost $300 playing slowly. 2nd time I broke dead even in an hour, and I was dealt quad 4s twice and made 3 other quads. Have to run hotttt to break even at a 99% game? What a joke.

the decisions themselves are static, but they absolutely make a difference in terms of you winning or losing over the long run (or even short term). You must have misunderstood what i was saying because i can't comprehend someone thinking otherwise. Holding, say, a pair over a 4- flush in 9/7 tdb will lose you more money over the long term than someone who keeps the 4 flush.

This is in contrast to slots where there is literally no way to predict who is going to come out on top between two people over the long run, because there are no decisions to make at all.

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