https://twitter.com/zgregjennings/st...495055362?s=21

Wow!

That's a disgusting hit.

Confirmation bias on your part. He posts losses and wins. His results aren't out of the ordinary.

I'm very aware of just how hot I'm running. Intellectually I know it can't continue indefinitely; and yet, every time I book a win, it doesn't make it MORE likely that the next session will be a loser.

The first day of this trip was the most shocking to me. I started play, telling myself to play slow, "knowing" I was due for a bad loss... then I hit all those 4AWAKs and the 16k UX hit. The machines really don't care. It's all just random.

I can tell you for a fact my host comped ONLY what was promised and not a penny more this trip I suppose I really don't have an argument. What was agreed on was provided. When I've run bad he's always comped extra, so I guess I really have no argument for extra when I run good. And barring the Wynn doing something horrible they know they've got me- it would be such a pain to take my play elsewhere, reestablish myself, etc and even then there's no guarantee I'd get more comp. I think they know exactly what they're getting with me.

Yea, this is one of my biggest pet peeves - people who misuse or misinterpret the phrase 'regression to the mean'.

if leon is running at, say, 103% on video poker on a 99% machine, regression to the mean doesn't mean his next few trips are likely to be 95% to even out. It just means his next many trips are still likely to be 99%, so that over the long run (which for video poker, and _especially_ TDB is VERY long), his overall return will be very close to 99%, even counting his relatively small sample size running at 103%.

It's sorta like, if you flip a fair coin and you get heads say, 15 out of 20 times, it doesn't mean you're any more likely to get tails in the next few flips. It means that after you flip 10,000 more times, you're likely to get extremely close to even numbers of heads and tails, and so even if you add in that short 15 out of 20 streak, you'll still be basically at 50/50 over that long run.

This is part of why I love 2+2- I can count on one hand the number of friends and family that I interact with in real life who understand this concept. Also why I love my wife- she actually gets gambling mathematics as well (I had to teach her when I taught her poker but she gets it). I was actually having a discussion recently with her where we were talking about my streak, how unlikely it is to come out ahead with millions of iterations of -EV bets, etc, and then I said to her "this is why I love you. I can say stuff like this and you actually understand".

In other news, without providing details (don't want to betray my host's honesty), I learned just now a) Wynn's comping % on theo (lower than I thought, but I guess LOL it's the Wynn), and b) how I'm doing relative to that. Let's just say I'm not rating a villa any time soon.

So it's not enough for them to downgrade their paytables even on high $/push machines, but they screw you on the theo too?

I should gamble a bit at Wynn at my cheeseburger stakes and then ask for a host to comp me just to see what I'd get. Maybe a pen. Probably not even that.

To be clear, I'm doing better on my comp than their formula would allow. Hence my host not willing to do more.

I suspect you'd rate MORE than you figure. From what I hear, they're looking for new, potentially quality customers. They know what they've got with me. My friend who we've got a Oct trip (sneak preview, Oct TR inbound) set up with got a 3 night, 1k free credit offer having gambled there ONCE with me.

I like how Leon always uses odds, logic, and common sense when it comes to video poker, but relies on superstition, luck, and feeling when it comes to craps..

Good running.

leon as employee of the Wynn confirmed. Nice try, buddy, but you're seeing no piece of my princely $10,000 coin in per trip.

But in all seriousness, I'll just stick with my seedy locals casinos. Give me the local meth heads and good paytables over the glitzy Strip with its club bros/wannabe gangstas and bad paytables anyday!

Superstition is ALWAYS right in craps. After the fact

I like being able to hit a 5 figure jackpot and not have everyone and their mother come and stare. Also, where else can you watch dudes bet table max on the pass line (he actually tried to bet more and got the over pushed back to him) and NO ODDS? I think this happened day 4. LOL WTF. He actually spun his 5k line bet up to about 25k after hitting a few points and 7s on the come out, then busto'd himself obv. Doubt you'll see that often at a locals' joint!

that's all well and good, but can you leave some 4AWAKs for the rest of us pls

Leon,

I know we're all degens here but do you ever consider taking the >100K+ bankroll and quit? Maybe invest in whatever?
It's all calculation and statistics and VP has no memory but with your style of play you can busto the roll in like 4 trips..
I know for you it's really gambling bankroll but still it's more than 100K...its half a house around here..

I am getting ssshhhttt about this question I think...

Regards and Godspeed on the sunrunning.

Verstuurd vanaf mijn VOG-L29 met Tapatalk

Being a dice dealer and seeing drunk “bros” do this on crazy weekend nights, really grinds my gears lol

Never quitting, but I've already taken so much from my bankroll and will continue to do so as far as investments, house improvement, etc. By my calcs-

Sun run 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 (huge cold patch in between), funded-
- 60k backyard remodel
- 30k roof/solar
- 20k? in stock market
- 10k? various other house expenses

My roll really should be much larger but I have no regrets about these investments. In fact, every time I run really hot I tend to put some away, bc I know if I give it all back I'm going to be really upset. So I don't have a great plan if my roll starts to get low again (and yes even with 100k ish I feel short bc no way I let myself lose 100k, so in reality I don't have 100k) but we'll see what happens. You're totally right in that technically I only have 4-5 bad trips in me- that's pretty sick.

I'm sure you've got some amazing/annoying stories, love to hear those if you're willing. Also this past trip, I saw 100$ box car bets for the DEALERS that came in twice! Dude wasn't even betting much more for himself. That was pretty fun to see, even if the dealers dropped more that roll for themselves than I LOST on an otherwise-cold table.

Day 3

Slept in a bit which was good. I'm in pure win-preservation mode now. We've got a cabana today and tomorrow, and we leave relatively early on the final day with Southwest's reduced flight schedule. So, if I stay at all reasonable, and I run at all decent, I'm locking in a monster.

That said, of course I head downstairs for a pre-breakfast session. It's horrible at first but ends up being pretty decent!



When you're giving money away super fast, "hits" like these are just annoying.



Took me a second to catch the last ace when I watched this as it was happening. I was so fixated on column 2 missing that I forgot about column 5! And, we know column 2 had a kicker, SO...



I believe that put me up a couple k for that session. Wife is up, wants to meet at Tableau for breakfast. Sounds good. I turbo off the 2k profit and am super pissed at myself, then-



I am just running INSANE with trip ace draws.

Get paid. Turbo off another 1k before wife is ready. OK, 3k profit for the AM ain't bad. I'm up 30k for the trip!







Steak and eggs, best thing on the menu. 8/10.

After breakfast, my wife heads back upstairs to work. She's got some work today, but should be able to join off and on at the cabana. I'm planning on hanging out there most of the day. BIL/BILG are here but they're not up yet, we'll meet up with them at some point.

The pool isn't open yet, so I get a post breakfast session in.



Despite that hit, it's cold and I give back a ton. Switch to an old school machine. I keep hoping one of the old school machines that, let's be honest, I've probably put more action into cumulatively over the years, will finally come thru with the dealt royal or dealt 4AWAK. I give more back there, but then get the second dealt quads of the trip!

Result-


After that, things cool off again, and I think I booked a 3k loser for that session. I head up to the room to change and pack my day bag for the cabana.







It's slightly overcast and not all that warm. Let's hope this changes.

I kick it for a couple of hours, then my wife comes down for lunch. We decide to just get a snack from Red8- we've got Lakeside for dinner at 7pm.



Standard shu mai and green beans is standard.

After lunch, my wife heads back up for more work, and I get a VP session in. It's cold, which of course means



Regular quads from a pair, twice, will be super easy to make. Duh.

I've earned an additional 1k free credit, and I'm down a ton for this session. Let's use it up.





Start.



End. Over 100% payback.

I keep going, and keep losing. ZERO jackpots this session, and I think I lost 7k? It was terrible. Down 4k for the day. Back to the cabana.



An especially-bold finch that kept coming into the cabana hoping for food.

I hang out there for a while, and pretty soon it's time to settle up for the day. Close out the checks, head upstairs to get ready for dinner, then get a pre-dinner session in. The machines remain cold, and I give back another 3k. Jeez. EVERY TIME I try and be disciplined, not play too much etc, those end up being my WORST days! So annoying. BIL texts- he's ready for dinner and wants to partner up. I'm not feeling it, but we haven't had the chance to play together yet, and if we lose it'll be 20% less for me, right?



BIL, who unfortunately must deliberate what to hold when dealt AJ suited, one other high card and two trash. Not his fault, he's just a noob.

We fire two 1000$ bullets and bink nothing. I'm now essentially stuck 10k for the day. Acutely aware I am giving away my win, I semi-tilt keep going on my own. Wife and BILG have all joined, and we've got about 15min until dinner. I semi-tilt mash buttons at turbo speed, then pick up 4 to a royal. I have no expectation this is going to come in with the way I'm currently running and an audience, but still slow the machine down for the draw.



Well. Hey! OK.

Get paid. Turbo mode again. Give back 1k, then-



Bang!

Those really help. Turbo off another 1k then it's time for dinner. Those royals netted me 6k, so I'm stuck only 4k for the day again. Phew, nice save.









I feel like the last few times I've been here I've been underwhelmed. Honestly the best thing they usually have is stone crab off the menu, and I know for a fact there's no stone crab yet (we asked at SW the night before). However, my BIL has never been, and it's a been a while for the wife. Fine, I'll make do. BIL orders a bunch of appetizers, I literally can't find any entree that seems appealing and finally decide on the lobster bake just bc I've never gotten it.



Amuse bouche, sushi in an ice cream cone. Interesting concept, pretty good. 7/10.



Crab cocktail? A little bland, but markedly improved with the sauces/pico they provided. 7/10.



Tuna. Surprisingly good, 8/10.



Beef tataki. Also surprisingly good, 8/10.



Lobster bake. A ton of food, way more than I needed. Also had king crab and shrimp. Decent but nothing special. 6.5/10.



Warm chocolate cake. 7/10.



Some sort of hazelnut "bar"? 8/10.



The "strawberry fields", basically panna cotta with strawberries, lime sorbet. 9/10, definitely the best of the desserts. Beautiful presentation, flavors worked perfectly. Chef should get a hat tip for this one. It's been a long time since a dish at the Wynn has taken me by surprise.

And finally, the obligatory extra calories no one ever asks for...



7/10.

Overall, I was impressed. The appetizers were better than expected, and the desserts were good bordering on phenomenal. Best experience I've had at Lakeside in a while.

After dinner, we head over to the craps table. Wife and I play, BIL/BILG watch, and we book another pretty awful craps session. I believe in for 4k, out for 1k? Nothing of note, wife basically convinced herself to stop shooting since she appears to be awful this trip. I'm not much better, of course. Stuck 7k for the day.

Post craps- wife, BIL/BILG head upstairs. I know I should stick with the 7k loss but I can't help myself.

Get pummeled at "my" machine. Switch to old school, get pummeled then get life back-



Honestly I hate these sessions most of all. Just get enough to keep going, eventually give it all back and nothing has changed except it's later in the evening now and I'm going to be more tired tomorrow. I end up heading upstairs around midnight, but not before one final dagger in the heart-



Held an ace. Get "dealt quads" on the redraw. And they're regular. Thanks a lot.

I think I lost 11k total this day. Rough day.

Day 3 result- -11k
Overall- +16k

Day 4 coming soon...

Good for you to take some for yourself to enjoy. Doubleplusgood on the solar.

Hope your system is able to provide you low-to-no-cost electricity. While probably not a great investment, it sure is nice to get $9 electric bills, and have the feeling of doing something good for the world.

I'm not in any way trying to support the idea that Leon is a marketing agent, but this is just wrong. His results represent an extraordinarily hot streak and are not at all "ordinary" in terms of EV. I'm not saying they are impossible, but definitely on the tail of the curve. Hey, somebody has to be out there. Probably won't be you and its fun that it is someone we can live vicariously through.

Oh that happens often with people who just have money to burn and are drunk having fun.
Most recent I recall is 3 friends who just finished a nice dinner, come to high limit to the $100 dice table. One guy is the obvious heavy bettor and the other two are just there to have a little fun with him.

Heavy bettor is betting anywhere from 400-1000 on the Don’t Pass with about 400-600 for the dealers on the don’t pass also. His buddies are shooting from the pass line with minimum bet ($100).

Heavy bettor is asking the dealers “WHAT DO WE WANT DEALERS”.

And we all responded in chorus “ 7 OOOOOUT”

It was funny to see them bet against each other and just needling each other back and forth.

Yup... it's especially hot considering he's now on short-pay machines. Going over my last ~10MM in coin-in (all on full-pay), I haven't had anything close to a run like this.

what's the green smear?

Looks like avocado to me

Definitely avocado, maybe guacamole (still avocado).

Why you no hold all 5 cards when dealt 4oak when you can't improve the hand?