A post-leg one reflection ahead of leg two...
NO GAMBLE NO FUTURE
I don't like to gamble. In poker, that's a bit of a problem.
Rewind to a few weeks ago. We're nearing the bubble to bag the Wynn $600. I've recently been moved to (yet another) new table. Top 500 GPI player (we'll call him Buzz) is a few seats my left. Buzz has over $2.5M in lifetime Hendon winnings and many impressive results. Tonight he's sitting on a healthy stack. One of the biggest at the table. He could easily fold into the money.
A big stack raises in early position. Buzz takes a moment before announcing all-in. EP calls and shows AK. Buzz has TT. He loses the flip and is out of the tournament. No reaction. No visible regret. He just gets up and leaves. Business as usual. If you asked him, I'm guessing he'd take that spot again. Sure, you'll go broke on the bubble sometimes, but often you'll win uncontested or win a big flip and be sitting on piles.
What would I have done in his shoes?
Probably flatted with TT and reevaluted after the flop, which is not necessarily a bad way to play the hand, but certainly a more cautious approach.
I had my own chance to gamble near the bubble in the same tournament. I'm in the BB with 88. It folds to Young Spaniard (YS) on the button. I've only been at the table with YS for a short time, but my early read on him is that he's a blaster. He has already pushed me out of a pot post-flop when I hit the A with a raggedy Ax from my BB. Sure enough, YS raises from the BTN yet again. I know my 88 rates to be far ahead of his opening range and also that will face a lot of tough flops out of position. I think the hand is too good vs. a wide range to play solely as a set mine, so I elect to 3-bet. Obviously YS does the typical young maniac thing and, after asking me for a count (I ignore him), 4-bet rips to put me all in.
I hem and haw here. I really think I'm likely to be good, but...I also don't want to flip for my tournament life so close to the bubble. Eventually, after a couple minutes in the tank, YS calls the clock on me. I reluctantly fold. I still end up bagging near average, but this spot lingers with me.
After we bag up for the night, I ask YS what he had. He claims to have been bluffing with A5. This might have been another bluff, but I'm inclined to think he might have been telling the truth.
Did I make a mistake in this hand? Did I make
several mistakes?
Near the bubble, is it smarter to just flat and try to play a pot with the maniac? Was I correct to 3-bet, but wrong to fold to the jam?
I think I probably took the worst possible line. If you're going to play scared, keep the pot small and flat pre. If you're going to play a big one, you probably need to call off here against what should be a pretty aggro range. You may occasionally run into a bigger pair, but you're getting much more than the right price to flip and you may be dominating some semi-bluffs and smaller pairs. Sometimes you are going to lose here and be out of the tournament on the bubble, but we must remember Buzz's example. We are not nitting it up to squeak under the wire. We are trying to win all the chips.
One of the leaks in my game is that I'm not greedy enough. When I have a decent stack, I don't like to risk a good position to possibly end up in a great position. I'm too content to eek out a modest win or coast into the money. I've made a few terrible pre-flop folds in the past in spots where I really needed to be more willing to gamble. I've made strides in this area, but it's something I need to keep working on. If I want to make the ultra deep runs and not just posture for the min-cash, I probably need to be more willing to gamble for a big stack without the absolute nuts.
There are times in poker when it makes sense to play it safe. However, the purpose of chips is not to gather dust, but to gather friends.
In tournament poker, greed is (usually) good.
I vow to keep this in mind the next time I have the chance to call off against a maniac.