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Moving to Vegas for Messenger Betting Moving to Vegas for Messenger Betting

12-16-2018 , 11:19 PM
The movie:
Spoiler:
The best part was watching him degen the money at the BJ table. The ending sucked.
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12-16-2018 , 11:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by parisron
The movie:
Spoiler:
The best part was watching him degen the money at the BJ table. The ending sucked.
I literally was writhing in pain when I watched him do that. I wanted so bad for him to just quit when he was $10000 ahead like Mikey McDermott in Rounders. Degens gonna degen. Stupid ending for sure
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12-17-2018 , 03:35 AM
Jersey would be better than have better books
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12-17-2018 , 05:04 PM
I can't believe this thread went on this long and another 2+2er didn't see the business opportunity here!

I propose a number of us create a syndicate to book this guy"s wagers. To attract his business we'll guarantee him the best line he can find at any of the Vegas sports books at the time of his wager, plus we'll sweeten the deal by collecting only 9.5% on his losses--the best vig in town!

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12-17-2018 , 06:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by madlex
Pretty sure Sportsbegging is about who makes the most money sitting on the Strip asking pedestrians for money. Think sportsfishing, just with beggars.
Similar to pokerbegging, which is done at airports ?
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12-17-2018 , 06:46 PM
Pokerbegging is the same as Railbirding. It's done from the rails by sweating someone in and telling them how great they are, and then asking for a stake or a buy in.
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12-17-2018 , 06:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Videopro
An individual providing messenger betting services is illegal. Given that if done smartly, hard to detect, but is it worth the risk? If you set it up as a business it can be legal, even if placing bets for out of state clients.

https://lasvegassun.com/news/2015/ju...rs-bet-sports/

Consider working with your sponsor to play this angle and make bets for a pool of folks.
With all respect, I won't try video production.

I think your encouraging OP to try this is like encouraging a blind person to try sword-fighting, Zatoichi notwithstanding.
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12-17-2018 , 06:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 9hilikeabos
I didn’t think anything under $5k would really be any problem. But if it is I can spread the action around multiple books. I will already be using multiple books so no one sportsbook catches on to me too quickly. Lots of books all over the state, and now in some other states too. I think I’ll be fine for a long time as long as I’m smart and move around to all the books
I think you do not have a clue in this regard.

https://www.fincen.gov/sites/default...8March2012.pdf

"Placing bets at multiple sportsbooks, usually at related properties, in an attempt
to structure bets that in the aggregate would exceed the reporting threshold.
Placing bets at multiple properties may also conceal aggregated winnings over
the reporting threshold."

The related tracking for aml purposes can trip up your scheme of hiding action from the books by betting across multiple books.

Last edited by Gzesh; 12-17-2018 at 07:05 PM.
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12-17-2018 , 06:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 9hilikeabos
Sometime in the next 30 days. The contract is signed, so he has 30 days to place the first bet or he is subject to some major fines.

The contract that we put into place is very detailed.
There’s punishments if I fail to place a bet, or place any bets that I wasn’t told to place.

He will show up at random times to collect his winnings so I can’t try and **** him and just do whatever the **** I want with the money.

I’m not allowed to drink on days when I’m placing bets since he’s worried about me getting drunk and deciding to take the roll to the craps table.

I get fined $300/day I drink when I’m not supposed to.

If I spend any money on anything besides placing the bets (table games, poker, buying a new car) I have my pay seized until double the amount is paid back.

I’m really looking forward to getting started.
I think it should be very profitable for him, and for me.
Sorry, this sounds delusional, but................... good luck, I guess.
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12-17-2018 , 07:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gzesh
I think you do not have a clue in this regard.

https://www.fincen.gov/sites/default...8March2012.pdf

"Placing bets at multiple sportsbooks, usually at related properties, in an attempt
to structure bets that in the aggregate would exceed the reporting threshold.
Placing bets at multiple properties may also conceal aggregated winnings over
the reporting threshold."

The related tracking for aml purposes can trip up your scheme of hiding action from the books by betting across multiple books.
CTR reporting is done at 10k, so yes if he made 3 different 4k bets at 3 mgm properties and used his card at all of them and all the same day then yes.

Not using a card and there is nothing to track. Also the sportsbooks have a separate report they do at any 3k cash transaction. That is not for the IRS its for Nevada Gaming and I don't think there is structuring for that. It is any 1 transaction at 3k or higher, not day total.
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12-17-2018 , 07:36 PM
What could possibly go wrong?
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12-17-2018 , 07:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by parisron
CTR reporting is done at 10k, so yes if he made 3 different 4k bets at 3 mgm properties and used his card at all of them and all the same day then yes.

Not using a card and there is nothing to track. Also the sportsbooks have a separate report they do at any 3k cash transaction. That is not for the IRS its for Nevada Gaming and I don't think there is structuring for that. It is any 1 transaction at 3k or higher, not day total.
OP says he wants to act legally, but his hiding his action among several books to get better odds or action can surely also looks like illegal structuring, or running a business that accepts bets across state lines.

Structuring would be a federal crime in and of itself, placing bets for someone else from out of state as part of a business across state lines also would be a federal crime. The mind behind the bets sounds like it will be communicating with OP across State lines.

Not using a player tracking card would not mean much if the activity looks unlawful:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eLAbh_LceNw at 1:43

"You got 50 ways you can f**k up; if you can think of 25 of them, you're a genius.... and you ain't no genius ...."

Last edited by Gzesh; 12-17-2018 at 07:44 PM.
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12-17-2018 , 07:44 PM
lol, wow he is young in that movie.

But am I correct about what I said on the Nevada gaming report at 3k?
That is what a supervisor told me.
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12-17-2018 , 09:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeC2012
How big does your friend think his edge is? Seems like if he's only betting $5k a pop he'd need to be making an assload of bets to cover the $1200/wk+rent he's outlaying to his beard.
Exactly what I was gonna post
His friend is a delusional idiot
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12-17-2018 , 09:24 PM
Not saying any of this is going to happen, but in theory, If he got 100 plays a month and hit 56% at $5500/$5000 that is 38k profit a month before apartment/beard fees.
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12-17-2018 , 09:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by parisron
Not saying any of this is going to happen, but in theory, If he got 100 plays a month and hit 56% at $5500/$5000 that is 38k profit a month before apartment/beard fees.
Seems your friend has a lot of optimistic assumptions for someone with a $30k roll. I’ll go out in a limb and say your “employment contract” is poorly written and probably not legal too.
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12-17-2018 , 09:57 PM
I am not OP. lol

I am just into Sports betting and find this interesting, whether it really happens or not.
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12-18-2018 , 04:29 AM
You need to be a NV resident to apply for entity wagering. Also, as an entity, your only out will be CG Tech. Lastly, if Cantor detects you are sharp and you're not some delusional whale scamming investors (which is what all remaining entities are), you will be limited.
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12-18-2018 , 05:05 AM
Sounds like an awesome free roll for you. I'd do it in a heartbeat.

I've known a couple guys who were runners for quite a while with no real problems. I think one finally got booted from Stratosphere after a year or two.

Quote:
Originally Posted by 9hilikeabos
My bigger worry is his system not working and the bankroll going bust.
"System" is worrisome. Is that his term? Still, if it doesn't work, he took his shot and you'll have a cool experience.

Also, you can make plenty of money if you are betting $5k units. It's true that there will be instances where you won't get that much, but if your buddy has an edge (or just runs good for a while) you'll do fine.
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12-18-2018 , 02:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94
Seems your friend has a lot of optimistic assumptions for someone with a $30k roll. I’ll go out in a limb and say your “employment contract” is poorly written and probably not legal too.
Of course. The bankroll size suggests the OP is a hoax, or the guy putting up the funds is a fool.

OP opines about profiting three units per week. Well, how much profit is in that? Well, at a 57.14% win rate (pretty good for the long run) they'll have to make 21 bets per week (12 wins, 9 losses). $12000-$9900 (9000x1.1)=$2100. $2100-$1200 (OP wages) -$450 (OP rent at $1800 Panorama apt) = $450 profit for investor. Sounds okay so far, but there are two major problems with this.

The first is that there aren't going to be 21 profitable wages per week. College and pro football seasons are ending, leaving college and pro basketball, pro hockey and whatever else is left until April. And even if there are, they have to find them. That's a lot of research and expertise invested every week for small profit for he investor. And many of the edges may not be worthy of a 57% bettor. And pushing smaller edges will hurt the win rate.

The second is tha bankroll (30K) is dismally too small for a 57% win rate, $1000 bets, the $1650 weekly nut, and the 10% vigorish. 300K is probably too small. They will be risking 70% of their bankroll in just the first week. The risk of ruin is too large. Given the large number of wagers they need per week, the win rate will probably suffer, and risk of ruin will be even higher, and the bankroll requirements higher still--maybe approaching $1M. And win rates are a long term calculation. In reality, there is a lot of short term variance, and a lot of weeks will be big losers. If they suffer one of those weeks early on, they won't have enough bankroll left to cover 21 bets the following week.

And I haven't gone into the other things that can sink the ship like taxes, getting books to take that many large wagers per week from a winning bettor, etc.

So they think they can do this with $5K wagers too, and clear 10 units per week?

It's fun to extrapolate short term results into long term riches. But the reality is that there aren't enough good betting opportunities to make a lot of money betting sports on anything but a very large bankroll in the long term. And if you're that good and have that much money, there are more fulfilling things to do with your time.

If OP indeed has been made such an offer and is game, then by all means he should have a go. But he shouldn't expect it to last more than a few weeks. It won't take the investor long to realize that weekly nut is killing his profits and there are much cheaper alternatives. It won't be long before OP is paying for his $20 per night motel room with his own money from his future $500 per week salary placing those bets.
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12-18-2018 , 03:04 PM
Yea, but he has a "System".

We haven't heard from OP lately, maybe he already screwed up and "Deep Throat" John Goodman had to take him out.
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12-18-2018 , 04:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by borg23
Exactly what I was gonna post
His friend is illusory
fyp,

please understand that there is no actual "friend" ?
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12-18-2018 , 04:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by George Rice
I can't believe this thread went on this long and another 2+2er didn't see the business opportunity here!

I propose a number of us create a syndicate to book this guy"s wagers. To attract his business we'll guarantee him the best line he can find at any of the Vegas sports books at the time of his wager, plus we'll sweeten the deal by collecting only 9.5% on his losses--the best vig in town!

One problem, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Wire_Act
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12-18-2018 , 04:47 PM
The funny thing is that he states he gets a raise in three years per the contract. Thats cute that they think this will last that long.
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12-18-2018 , 06:01 PM
Your friend is going to go broke. I work for someone (who also posts on 2p2) in Vegas and he only pays 0.25% per dollar wagered (so $4 = 1 cent).

Also if you're betting for someone else you need to make the ticket writer aware that you're making a bet on behalf of (company name). If not and caught, they can (and will) press charges against you. It's a felony.

2% ROI is considered pretty good. If he's giving you ~$6,500/month that means he would need to turn over $325,000/month just to cover you. Seems unlikely with that bankroll. Most likely option is that you are there one month, don't get paid, and are stuck with a lease on an apartment in Vegas.

Last edited by Poogs Local; 12-18-2018 at 06:09 PM.
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