Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94
Seems your friend has a lot of optimistic assumptions for someone with a $30k roll. I’ll go out in a limb and say your “employment contract” is poorly written and probably not legal too.
Of course. The bankroll size suggests the OP is a hoax, or the guy putting up the funds is a fool.
OP opines about profiting three units per week. Well, how much profit is in that? Well, at a 57.14% win rate (pretty good for the long run) they'll have to make 21 bets per week (12 wins, 9 losses). $12000-$9900 (9000x1.1)=$2100. $2100-$1200 (OP wages) -$450 (OP rent at $1800 Panorama apt) = $450 profit for investor. Sounds okay so far, but there are two major problems with this.
The first is that there aren't going to be 21 profitable wages per week. College and pro football seasons are ending, leaving college and pro basketball, pro hockey and whatever else is left until April. And even if there are, they have to find them. That's a lot of research and expertise invested every week for small profit for he investor. And many of the edges may not be worthy of a 57% bettor. And pushing smaller edges will hurt the win rate.
The second is tha bankroll (30K) is dismally too small for a 57% win rate, $1000 bets, the $1650 weekly nut, and the 10% vigorish. 300K is probably too small. They will be risking 70% of their bankroll in just the first week. The risk of ruin is too large. Given the large number of wagers they need per week, the win rate will probably suffer, and risk of ruin will be even higher, and the bankroll requirements higher still--maybe approaching $1M. And win rates are a long term calculation. In reality, there is a lot of short term variance, and a lot of weeks will be big losers. If they suffer one of those weeks early on, they won't have enough bankroll left to cover 21 bets the following week.
And I haven't gone into the other things that can sink the ship like taxes, getting books to take that many large wagers per week from a winning bettor, etc.
So they think they can do this with $5K wagers too, and clear 10 units per week?
It's fun to extrapolate short term results into long term riches. But the reality is that there aren't enough good betting opportunities to make a lot of money betting sports on anything but a very large bankroll in the long term. And if you're that good and have that much money, there are more fulfilling things to do with your time.
If OP indeed has been made such an offer and is game, then by all means he should have a go. But he shouldn't expect it to last more than a few weeks. It won't take the investor long to realize that weekly nut is killing his profits and there are much cheaper alternatives. It won't be long before OP is paying for his $20 per night motel room with his own money from his future $500 per week salary placing those bets.