I'm planning on moving to Vegas in 5 years for early quasi-retirement. I have 2 side hustles now and poker is the third. My hourly at NL 1/2 reflects a game that needs tons of work. Last year I made 8.70 an hour (not big bets). This is not good and not up to the 2+2 standard. I'm sorry for that. I've had to work hard since 2013 to fight being a nit. I have more gamble now than I used to and have learned from the Small Stakes forum here. Thanks!
However, I've averaged between 8 and 10 an hour over the last 3 years at NL 1/2. I've never been "killing the game" since my online days ended.
Also, I never play 2/5. My question is, how much harder are games in Vegas at 1/2 as compared to the Hammond Horseshoe and Majestic Star? Given my meager returns, would I expect to be a break even or losing player out there in Pro City? How much tougher is it?

Hard to make a comparison if people don't know much about the games in you local casinos. Perhaps describe the games a little bit at your local casinos. I haven't played in Vegas recently but I suspect that the Vegas lowest limit games have a few tougher players but also have some tourists that play like crap. A high rake could be denting your win rate. Think about key hands and alternatives to how you played them. Also if you haven't already use some of the software tools that are mentioned on this site.

FWIW think about incorporating PLO into your playing.

I should also add that obviously you are going to have more games to choose from in Vegas. So your prospects are pretty good I would think. That fact that you are a winning player is very good for your prospects in Vegas. You'll just have to think about ways to improve your game to earn a higher rate. Just keep in mind that the rake hits the lowest limit games the hardest.

OP, do you ever make trips out to Vegas? Because making a trip out there yourself and playing the games would best answer your question, since opinions can vary.

Considering nobody knows what the NL games will be like in 5 years, I'm really not sure what kind of advice anybody can give. Just continue to work on your game.

Excellent point, I always ask the young guys if they know a bunch of guys who play poker and they don't usually. Can't imagine what the future holds but the suggestion to learn Omaha is a good one. It's exploding over at the Horseshoe now.

I went to Vegas every year until 2015 over the summer. I definitely should go this year and I would probably skip places that are more pro heavy like Venetian and Bellagio when i live there.

One of the toughest things for me are the wild games. Last summer I short-stacked and avoided them. Now I'm getting more used to them but I seem to do better in average games than the ones with whales. Kind of like what PokerKraut said about Planet Hollywood. He said they're great games but he gets killed in them. Last summer, i'm still haunted by a hand when I had AK on ace high flop and I folded to a 100 dollar bet and call ahead of me. I assumed one of them had a set or at least 2 pair. It turned out a paired 9 on the turn was the winner. I'm trying to improve in wild games for certain.

One difference will be that there will be more "pros" in LV. That doesn't mean they are better than the players you have played against, but they will be taking the game more seriously. If you are just an occasional player now, most of the regulars don't have a strong handle on your game. You can be sure that if you play regularly in LV, the players will begin to pick up your tendencies, which will make it harder to win.

FWIW, $8 - $10 per hour is a good win rate at 1-2 over 3 years. Lots of people get "selective" about what counts to drive up their ego and winrate. They tend to leave out the times they got drunk and dropped 4 buy ins in an hour. Or they decided to chase a "whale" up to 5/10 and got their ass handed to them.

I've wondered about these huge win rates too because the terrible players often beat the better players in my games short-term for huge amounts. I know one guy whose hated by OMCs but without him their games would have no action.

The one advantage I've had is that most of these guys barely remember me at all and don't remember any hands in the least. When I mention hands to them or situations they think i'm a weirdo for remembering them.

Quick advice:, You can likely double your rate pretty well if you apply yourself to learning, pick good games and are never haunted by some single hand you once played..... especially one where you folded on the flop.

You may find that the ratio of poor to good players is key, regardless of what room. There are locals rooms which play as soft as any others here. Rooms like the V have a regular contingent of local grinders, but a healthy share of walk-in tourists. You will know the local grinders pretty quickly.

HOWEVER, 5 years is a long time off and poker fashions here do change frequently.

I think you are over estimating the play at Vegas. You can find soft 1/2 games at Bellagio, Venetian or anywhere else. All it takes is 1 or 2 guys at the table to be bad and it changes everything.

In my experience there are a lot more tourists and bad players in Vegas as compared to your local cardroom (insert hometown here). The reason being that most people that play at home are more serious about poker. On the other hand many people play poker in Vegas that are not serious about cards and maybe this is their 1 or 2 times a year they sit down and gamble.

Try and play in the evenings on Friday and Saturday nights at any major poker room and you should find some loose and drunk players to extract money from.

This is a great point. You need to be willing to gamble at some spots and read what people are doing/thinking.

Is villain drunk? Is villain trying to finish the session so he can go be with his friends?

Probably goes without saying but be careful with bluffs at 1/2. As they say "no one comes to Vegas to fold".

I say the same thing about the lack of ability to get folds. That's why my preflop raises are typically 12 to 15 rather than 20. Oftentimes I can still 3B with my best hands anyway. I try not to be too predictable.

I’d worry more about the higher rake in the next 5 years instead of the competition at the lowest stakes. It’s gone to $5 in the last year everywhere on the Strip, and it will get to $6 and $7 eventually which will hurt players a lot if they win $10 an hour or less.

Typically the toughest 1-2 or 1-3 games in Vegas are the games where you get chances to steal the blinds, people limp-fold to PF raises, and they tend to not stack off unless they have two pair or better. Players that play nitty ABC poker and hope to get paid off with big hands will struggle to win more than a little in those games. And those are the toughest games at those levels.

stop being such a nit and realize you're playing hand ranges of guys who give 0 ****s.
while you may be correct that you do better in less "WILD" games, good players who actually adjust well to different table dynamics and don't just play a cookie cutter strategy do way better in games like this.

Yeah I agree, but that's my point. I need to improve in wild games which is what I'm trying to do.

Wow, I had heard a lot about those Cali games and the 7 or 8 buck rake but i never thought Vegas would do that. It's sick and the biggest fish never think about the rake in the first place. Thanks for the comment.

It seems that the poker economy is contracting a bit. Some small poker rooms have closed, rake has increased slightly. Its tough to predict what poker will look like in 5 years.

In terms of the games being tougher in Vegas, definitely not at 1/2 NL (Although don't know your local game). But 1/2 NL games are pretty soft most places. I think its fine to have as a side hustle (especially if you are retired), but it would suck to have to try to make a living at 1/2 NL.

Excellent point. Yeah and I had 0 intentions of trying to make my living at poker because I'd starve...LOL

Winning any amount long term in a $50 min-buy game with $5+1 rake is impressive. You're paying $7/hand including tip and likely winning at least two hands/hour. You can see where the majority of your hourly is going.

In Hammond, you should really consider 2/5 NL or PLO. Same rake, much higher hourly expectation.