I'm probably way too nitty but in that spot I think I open-fold and survive with 18.5 bb. You're not the only one noticing his tilt-play - I probably wait for a bigger hand and see if someone else takes him out. He may also calm down in an orbit or two and play more rationally. I know you'd rather not him play rationally, but 77 is way behind or flipping with way too many hands.

If he's shoving ATC 90%+ (this IS realistic here) then we would opt to just fold pre if the plan was open-fold and save the bet. Only consideration being if he shoved and a different player flat or over shoved.

77 6 handed is a differenent animal in a sense as well. (IMO)

Russian won BTW lol...at least my chips went to good use.

Nobody can know the table dynamics and opponents like the guy who was there....and as you said you could have nitted a couple spots on the pay ladder....and wanted a stack that had a shot at top 3.

I am curious though....with 21 bigs...what was the average number of bigs at your table at the time? 21bbs doesn't seem majorly short stacked to me.

I believe you. I probably would've folded pre then. Especially with that big of a stack.

Even with him shoving 90%, it seem like there's still a big risk of you're flipping at best.

Agree. Even if the rest of the table have a ton more, 21 bb is enough to see several more orbits before you get to the danger zone.

Chip average was like 480k. I had bout 260k. 3 other stacks at my table had 200-325k or so. Pay out was flat into 10th-12th meaning to consider laddering I'm looking to 9th which is gonna be awhile costing me 38k per orbit. Like I said its doable but would sacrifice significantly the odds of taking a higher position. Also it's very possible to play over an hour without a better spot than 77 6 handed first to act (after the folder) especially given the abilities of the competition so the potential double up and resulting maneuverability held significant value to me. It is very likely I would have been forced into a far worst spot with far less fold equity almost immediately upon making final 9-10. Upon reflection I don't feel like I can straight fold this spot and hold any considerations of a 1st-3rd finish outside the bounds of "let's get lucky" . I have certainly concluded that opening 2.5x with the intention of snapping the expected shove was the ideal line, though I did have my justifications (at least in my head at that time) for the open shove. I'm still vastly inexperienced in these and am far from above mistakes so I take consolation in that my line (yes results oriented) netted the same result as the ideal line in this case so I can take something constructive from it without the mistake having altered the outcome. I am happy I have so much left to learn/improve in these live longer structure mtts going forward.

Can someone crunch calculation on my EV with the 7s there if I'm getting called by any Axs, A9+, Jq+, and all pairs then picking up the 30k uncontested otherwise? (If no one does I'll get around to it tomorrow if I get a chance)

Also I can't reiterate the talent of the field this late in on this one, my edge was nominal for the most part and vs some of the players I admittedly had to be a dog.

*on that topic 21 bb is usually a very comfortable amount for me, not short at all but these opponents 3, 4, and even 5 bet ranges abilities and propensities made that number shrink up fast lol

*two edits! it's 30k/orbit and blinds are coming around much faster from short handed obvs

Nice run OP, always frustrating when you don't win it all. For what its worth, I would have played the 7's the same in that position.

Good tournament players are not calling 21bb open ships with the range you are asking about. Even players on tilt are probably not calling that wide either. This is the main reason why standard open and calling it off is infinitely better.

Calculating cEV vs this range here is basically not relevant because the calling range is going to be much narrower than mentioned, including all better pairs and the top of the overcard range only. (55-66 may call it off, is about all you have going for you with this shove).

Even tho the pay jumps are flat for 3 spots, you still are technically on the FT bubble. Play on big FT bubbles like this one can incur all sorts of $EV spots that will differ from cEV calculations that will vary based on exact player tendencies, experience levels, stack sizes, and opponents perceived experience level of the hero (ie do they think you might be 'scared money', willing to raise/fold, super nitty, maniacal, or any/all of the above). It is for these reasons that understanding ICM is critical when in this situation.

I think where you will benefit the most as far as the learning curve/process for MTT poker is situational ranges based on stack sizes and also ICM in general.

As for this exact situation, given we are 6 handed and in MP, along with the spastic player behind, tough field remaining, and overall specific tournament dynamics here, open folding 77 is probably worse than open shipping. This was a good spot to take based on flat payouts for 3 spots (albeit still a FT bubble ICM spot), so wouldn't beat yourself up over that by any means. I feel pretty comfortable with the raise/call option in this spot. It should be noted, however, that if a variable or two were different in the hand (it was an exact final table bubble spot, super short stacks at other table, remaining field is relatively weak compared to my understanding of bubble play/final table play, etc) then arguments could be made for open folding or raise folding.

Understanding the differences of the ranges we are facing in these final table bubble scenarios when we open ship this stack size vs the ranges we face when our standard opens are 3bet raised or 3b shoved on is also a key MTT learning here.

Great post, Rockstar.

You make sence and I agree what you say (in a bubble) BUT I assure you this particular player in his mindset at the time in this particular spot WAS indeed calling off the exact range I mentioned or very close to it. He had slag'd off close to a million in chips down to less than 150k then insta shoved ATC the previous 2 hands. What sucked about me open-jamming as opposed to open-snapping is he would have jammed ATC again over me giving me a potentially even more favorable condition.

Vindication at its finest. Must've felt great!

Was 'aight' and a bit poeric /ironic that he k.o.s me from wayyy behind in the first main event I play, then I k.o. him (albeit I was ahead and he was very short-stacked) in the second one I play. Unfortunately he's pleasant at the table and seems like a good guy so not good nemesis material.

VDS 400k GTD tomorrow will be on twitter. Over/under I day 2?

7.5/1 skill set 4/1??

Ya I'm thinking 1:4 / 30℅ or mo betta actually . Omw out so well see.

Very smart of the V to have this opening weekend of march madness
Does it match up each year?

Dunno. Busto super early like end of level 2. Lost 2/3 my stack opening KQ get 4 calls pre cbet big on KQ7 flop ,2 diamonds, sb only calls then donks out twice on 8d turn. I think he can have K8/Q8/78 in hit flat enough and lead pair with Ad on turn to flat + can pair but only bluff catching river...I shoulda lost far less. Jammed the last 4.5 k in a squeeze spot would ibrease my stack 20%, I usually have some degree of fold equity and my small connectors which are gonna play not terrible to a call but opener had AK flop K gg. Mad. Want to smash the plo8 on Sunday.

yes - v aint stoopid

2-5 games great at V atm Squid? (not day obvs)

i am back in town tomorrow...got word from street poker chick. She played yesterday 8pm-9am and games were OFF DA CHAIN! Highly advise playing

I played with a woman last May @ V after the Mayweather fight who I have always imagined was street poker chick. Guy had won $26K on a fight bet and was spewing it off to us.

#coolstorybro