preflop, she raises to $20, gets 2 callers that aren't the blinds, so I estimated a pot size of $65 on the flop ($20 x3 + 5 ) I didn't count the small blind just to make it a multiple of 5 and to account for some of the rake.

On the flop, she bets $50 in to $65. we'll assume the button folds every time on the flop as I'm not even sure you can bluff clubs if button calls after you on the flop.

so you're calling $50 to win $115 giving you 2.3 to 1 direct. You turn a club 10/48 times so you need 3.8 to 1 odds to be even EV. if she check folds all turned clubs and bets all others, then obviously you only get the 2.3 to 1 odds and its -EV. if she bet folds $50 100% of the time then you are calling $50 on the flop to win $115 in the pot + $50 on the turn giving you 3.3 to 1 odds and thus still -EV. if she bet folds $100 on the turn, then you get 4.3 to 1 (2.3 to 1 direct, 2 to 1 implied) and it becomes +EV.

Now you do sometimes have Ace outs but I tend to discount those as the reverse implied odds are terrible if she has a set or QJ or AQ or AA. and if she has KQ or KK then your implied odds are not great as she slows down and you might not be willing to bomb the turn with pair of Aces bad kicker.

Now obviously this doesn't figure in to play you double floating the turn or whatever or calling on a turned club to bluff river but at 90BB effective stack size, these aren't going to be winning plays. We are also ignoring the few times that she actually has 2 clubs or button has 2 clubs or button calling the flop bet after you making it very difficult to bluff the turn even if a club does hit.

Also, I think you put too much emphasis in to the nut blocker portion of things. Nut blocker and nut draw blocker are very very different. Having nut DRAW blockers in holdem is meaningless at 90bbs.

Sounds bout right though I think I can bluff Non club Ks also as well as J pairing turn since I would so rarely put her on a set there and Jx should be in my floating range...I could also double float some brick turns if she led out as cheaply as she did on turn then rep same planned range on rivers, I understand what your saying though in a bubble anyhow. Honestly she seemed genuinely disgusted by turn and I really read the situation as a weak defensive lead out again with bet-fold intentions...Unfortunently she opted for the fk it over shove route; I have to consider the possibility I triggered that action with my bad oversized raise where a standard raise-then jam river would have looked much more convincing.

Also button was pretty much advertising fold on flop so wasn't a large consideration to me.

I really think you are being optimistic there if you think you can bluff K or J especially given prior history. and unlike a turned club, you really have no equity with a turned K or J.

Contrary to most, I think the preflop call is borderline, but not terrible as sometimes you get it HU and most of the time you probably close the action. Also, if you really think she has some flop cbet frequency or bet size tell then it can work out. But you should be using those tells to play back at her when it looks like she missed the flop and not try to float flops with no real equity when she is strong and trying to get her to fold on very unlikely turns.

Remember, it almost doesn't matter that she is disgusted by the turn. That turn comes up much less often than you think. She should be disgusted. I didn't fault your turn play at all since what else can you do? Maybe you can adjust sizing but its not that big of a mistake. If you raise to $135 and she calls, pot becomes ~385 on the river and you have like 200 effective.

I think your flop call is easily the worst street played by a mile.

your prior poast was fantastic sir. I seldom post up strat however, I have to disagree big time with the bolded. Our hero is trying to break into 2/5. He needs to play solid, book some wins and build confidence. He is not a crusher (yet). This whole play simple sux ass from the current position he is in with regards to poker IMHO.

when taking on a new level of poker it is really easy to get into FPS and a whole lot of other bs leveling thought processes - lose $ and then complain about runbad when shot taking.

Play good well thought out poker prove yourself to yourself - then start increasing your bag of tricks.

This post is in no way making fun or taking shots at the OP - it is simply something I have encountered countless times when I have seen people taking shots at higher games...and it more often than not backfires

Thx for the input guys, I def agree it was garbage, not indicative of my play by any means but probably shows a glimpse of the FPS bs my mind might be slipping into in the looser bigger playing 2-5 games that's causing me to struggle where just playing solid and a lot more selective on moves should have been very lucrative in this game in particular and ones like it.

He should be folding preflop most likely if he is trying to break in to 2/5 and avoid FPS. I don't think preflop is great but mostly wanted to stress how bad the flop is.

I always post strat taking every read any OP posts at face value and take their word that their reads are accurate. Because to not do so, the discussion breaks down in to a debate on accuracy of reads and kind of a he said she said situation.

Since OP posted that he was able to narrow the villain's range to TP/Overpair, and I believe him, that leads me to believe that the villain likely does something different with weaker hands and thats a pretty good read to have.

The thing is I wanted to emphasize that its not enough to have reads but to also be able to effectively use them and to also understand that reads are sometimes not enough to overcome cold hard math.

Like if effective stacks were 70bbs preflop and villain raises to 8bbs and even if he shows you that he has AA, you can't call with anything aside from AA. (assuming we ignore the he knows he showed you AA level). Its great your read is as accurate as him showing you but that read should lead you to exploit fold.

Its a similar situation here. You have a great read she is strong. you don't have a read how she reacts on turned flushes and besides odds aren't right. so exploit fold.

I think you are playing great. I mean you got her to fold QQ on a K high board already so clearly you have some tricks up your sleeve and you aren't playing straight ABC. I think if you just made some adjustments to tighten up after outplaying villain and change up your speed and be more aware of stacksizes and basic odds, then you would be crushing.

There's one around my neighborhood. I saw it a few days ago on the way to work. Saw a McLaren tonight at the local cardroom (M8trix).

Top Gear liked it, but it reportedly doesn't get anywhere near the mileage claimed for it.

What advantage does the i8 have over the p85d ?

The most obvious one is that I can drive it from here in San Jose to Vegas in one day.

There are lots of others too, like you can test drive an i8 to see if you like it BEFORE you plunk down a ton of money to buy one.

wheydacheese,

Nice score at the Venetian Deep Stacks last month. Heads up against Schulman. Great job on the 2nd place finish.

thx! naturally anything but the win stings at the time but feels better not too long after.

super pumped up for the WYNN main on the 15th, 25k starting and 60min lvls and 3 days will make it not only the highest buy in mtt for me but also the deepest playing/structured. taking a look at the structure and stopping point indicates I will have a ton of room to play so playing 100% mistake free is probably going to take precedence over other considerations (max value lines ect)

had a gross cash session over the weekend where first gii with pp99 on 6-7-8 flop vs AQ guy spikes Q on turn. shortly after I pick up ppAA utg and know I can sell tilt on it so open for overly large and get a call from a big stack in LP. I check raise on a J-8-6 flop he calls...I lead out large on a 7 turn and he comes overtop all in. he feels realllly weak here so I pretty much insta-snap...he tables pp55 says "I thought for sure you had AK" (WTF!?!?) then binks the 5 on the river lol.

I've cut down to really short sessions and limited cash action this week just trying to get mentally and physically charged up for the WYNN main so I feel like I'm going to be coming into it super focused and bringing all that I possibly can, leaving the rest up to the run-good fairies so I should obviously ship the thing.

the big Day 1b mtt Main at the WYNN bout ta go down on twitter @wheydacheese ! follow the action and/or check it out later on here. ill be taking a lot of notes and doing a big posthumous writeup here when we win or in the unlikely scenario that they manage ta kill us.

Sending the run-good fairies your table number. Gogogoogo.

Good luck and run good your whey

B

rungoods you are cleared for landing, I repeat, rungoods you are cleared for landing

Thx for da run good. . Really hard field and first table was torturous but bagged 106,500 going to day 2 tomorrow. Keep the mojo coming lol

Oh and would be awesome if aomine got a chance to check Wynn or Cardplayer site tom morning and tell me wtf table I'm on, gonna sleep then might be a bit rushed.

Dude in red shirt is Dan O'Brien

Guy was getting kinda steamed, partly towards me over some hands we played. He just seemed frustrated at the end of the night.

^supposed to say if *anyone gets a chance to check table seating.

Cardplayer says that you are at Table 5 Seat 3. They count 79 remaining players, with you in 19th place at 106,500. Prize pool is north of $480k, so you'll be taking home $111,621 when you ship this thing.


They think your table (#5) for Day 2 looks like this:

1: Kenneth James 113,600
2: Hazbi Xhindi 89,000
3: Ryan Leadem 106,500
4: James Agate 92,700
5: Jan Siroky 40,200
6: Muruz Yohannes 24,000
7: Eric Molina 200,900
8: Dan Sindelar 41,500
9: Ira Friedman 69,000





mission control, we have confirmed the presence of inbound rungoods

good luck!