Quote:
Originally Posted by wheydacheese
Can someone crunch calculation on my EV with the 7s there if I'm getting called by any Axs, A9+, Jq+, and all pairs then picking up the 30k uncontested otherwise? (If no one does I'll get around to it tomorrow if I get a chance)
Good tournament players are not calling 21bb open ships with the range you are asking about. Even players on tilt are probably not calling that wide either. This is the main reason why standard open and calling it off is infinitely better.
Calculating cEV vs this range here is basically not relevant because the calling range is going to be much narrower than mentioned, including all better pairs and the top of the overcard range only. (55-66 may call it off, is about all you have going for you with this shove).
Even tho the pay jumps are flat for 3 spots, you still are technically on the FT bubble. Play on big FT bubbles like this one can incur all sorts of $EV spots that will differ from cEV calculations that will vary based on exact player tendencies, experience levels, stack sizes, and opponents perceived experience level of the hero (ie do they think you might be 'scared money', willing to raise/fold, super nitty, maniacal, or any/all of the above). It is for these reasons that understanding ICM is critical when in this situation.
I think where you will benefit the most as far as the learning curve/process for MTT poker is situational ranges based on stack sizes and also ICM in general.
As for this exact situation, given we are 6 handed and in MP, along with the spastic player behind, tough field remaining, and overall specific tournament dynamics here, open folding 77 is probably worse than open shipping. This was a good spot to take based on flat payouts for 3 spots (albeit still a FT bubble ICM spot), so wouldn't beat yourself up over that by any means. I feel pretty comfortable with the raise/call option in this spot. It should be noted, however, that if a variable or two were different in the hand (it was an exact final table bubble spot, super short stacks at other table, remaining field is relatively weak compared to my understanding of bubble play/final table play, etc) then arguments could be made for open folding or raise folding.
Understanding the differences of the ranges we are facing in these final table bubble scenarios when we open ship this stack size vs the ranges we face when our standard opens are 3bet raised or 3b shoved on is also a key MTT learning here.