Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll
honestly the worst thing to happen to a hunchcapper is running good flipping coins
without line shopping, specific insider knowledge, or an advanced model he's just flipping coins and hoping to still beat the vig
Are the lines at the Westgate not any good compared to the rest of Vegas? I do agree it does seem like the feathers picks are based more on "game flow" than on tangible analytics, but my profitable MLB and NBA models both bet faves 80+% of the time. It seems logical to me that the better team would outperform the line, rather than the inverse.
I think it's possible for someone to be a successful capper who does a bunch of things well without an advanced model. He's only betting about 1/4 of the games, which is also in line with what my models do. He knew to skip the final week of the season which is a crapshoot.
As far as those stupid teasers... maybe he has a bit of a degen side.