Quote:
Originally Posted by Da_Nit
Three bets today with money on the two biggest favorites on the board including a huge road favorite with the Blues on a puck line -1.5 bet and a Carolina regulation bet. Also he’s still on Montreal. Art least he’s making hockey fun to track for a Texan. Thanks Andrew.
I'm not a big bettor but from what I understand, just betting the heavy favorites is a losing strategy because of the odds. You need to win too often to make money and when those upsets happen (especially during a long regular season like with hockey, basketball, and baseball) you lose too much compared to the little wins that you collect when the favorites hold.
If you're betting -180 and worse all the time or taking a high spread all the time to improve those odds, it further kills you. It seems like lowering odds by taking an "in regulation" bet or the -1.5 puck line is similar to parlaying favorites to get a better line. Just like going 3-0 is significantly harder than going 2-1, it is also much harder to pick a winner by 2 goals or just in regulation than just picking a winner flat out.
Also, if you're paying someone for picks, why don't you just follow their strategy. If you're going to do your own research, save the $1K and put it into your bankroll for a higher margin of error. If your units are $100 a piece, then that $1K is like starting out down 10 units from day 1. It only makes sense if you trust the advice and if it saves you time in doing research.
Heck, maybe BK can make this more interesting by having two separate trackers. His own picks versus the picks he bought. Make a third tracker of when they overlap and your research agrees with the bought picks. Would be fun to follow that over the whole season.