Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley
It's actually true. It's called the arcsine law.
The proportion of heads/tails gets closer to 50% as you do more and more flips but the difference between the number of heads and tails grows bigger.
The Law also shows that if you're flipping a random fair coin and you get $1 if it's heads and pay $1 for tails that ending up close to even is the least likely result and instead the most likely result is you are either up a lot or down.
Let me repeat this back to you in layman terms to confirm that I'm understanding...
Let's say you have 10 trials of a coin flip, and it comes up 6 heads and 4 tails. That is 60% heads, and 40% tails. The difference between them is 2.
Now, let's say you have 1000 trials of a coin flip, and it comes up 550 heads and 450 tails. That is 55% heads and 45% tails. The difference between them is 100.
So, the bigger trial is closer to even percentages (55/45 as opposed to 60/40), but the difference is larger (100 as opposed to 2).
Yes?