It’s how large the variance is vs the skill difference and how life changing the money could be.

Most heads up battles come down to the luck of the cards far more than skill. Of course skill is a part of it but why have $xxx on a coin flip if you don’t have to?

Also it’s an anomaly of poker vs most other sports that the money involved was actually put in by the players which I think does make a difference

It would be my guess though that many sportspeople would chop prize money if a) they were allowed and b) it was life changing.

Also fyi boxers don’t fight for prize money - that’s already sorted in advance. Their $$ reward for winning is what they can earn for the next fight

All reasonable points.

P.S. I still won't agree to chops. But your points are valid.

I’m not doing it in a $200 tourney unless it was hugely in my favour but if it starts getting into tens of thousands I’m definitely doing it, particularly if stacks are shallow

I’ve just played way too many (thousands) of sit n gos and spins and satellites and losing flips and 60:40s and 70:30s etc etc can happen for ****ing months

Well said. Poker is ultimately not a pure meritocracy. As much as the WSOP wants to use the "world champion" terminology, you are not the world champion of poker because you binked one $10k. Even if you played great to get there, you are just a (probably very good) player who got (probably very) lucky.

We talk about how poker is appealing because you can sit down and play with the best. I could never buy my way into an NBA game to face off against LeBron, but I can register for a WSOP event and possibly be seated with Phil Ivey. If I ran really good and got lucky, maybe I could even BEAT him. That's a departure from pure meritocracies. If I played LeBron in a hundred 1-on-1 games, I would lose every single match unless he tore a ligament. He would have absolute control of the outcome.

A poker player never has absolute control of the outcome. There's an understanding that even if you do everything right, there are going be runouts where you crash and burn. There is no mechanic in golf or boxing where you can make a hole-in-one shot and suddenly be given a triple bogey, or land a huge uppercut and be punched in the face as your reward. Therefore it makes a lot more sense to hedge in poker than it does in those other activities. You can be the best player at your table, but you still have limited control over the outcome.

Now combine that element of randomness with another variable feel wrath alluded to: poker players pay their own way into events (or are staked) and generally don't benefit from lucrative sponsorships. Most of them are not rich. Some may even be deep in make up. So when they finally get that hot run and are in position to lock up a huge payday, it may make sense for them to take the guaranteed money. This is especially true in huge events where the multiplier can be crazy. The Main Event final table is a spot most people will never get back to ever again after the first time, so if you're in that spot, maybe you just want to lock up the cash instead of risking extra millions on a few dozen or hundred hands of random card distribution. The money in these spots is usually a lot more life-changing for a random poker player than for an already-loaded PGA golfer, NFL QB, or undisputed champion boxer. They have the luxury of playing for glory because they are already set for life.

often times these low- to mid- buy in tournaments get to the point where the average stack is less than 12 BB. at that point, the end result is not skill, it's about who can be dealt an ace or a pair, and who will win a flip. when the remaining prize pool is so top-heavy that it no longer relates to the skill of the players, a chop is in play.

a few months ago at Wynn there were 7 of us, it was 1am and we had been playing for 13 hours, stacks were similar and blinds were high, lead changed every orbit, and we agreed to a chop. the posted difference between 1st and 7th was $17k - $2.5k. ICM chop put everyone between $9.5k - $6k. guy with the most got the picture for the win ,(maybe a trophy) and everyone went home happy.

if it's not life-changing money, that is precisely why a chop is reasonable.

I have said no to a chop before, in a small tourney (at 3 and heads up), at that point the stacks were not too shallow. mostly because I was way down and needed the win to salvage the trip, and I did win.

the local tournament circuit here in ND almost never do chops. but when in Vegas, it's usually pretty reasonable.

You can't compare golf to the late stages of a poker tournament.
what part does luck play in heads up golf?

getting to the final table is about skill. much of the time, winning is about not getting unlucky.

Nice discussion.

don't mean to derail your post. I hope you win your WSOP straight up

Those don't bother me. I just say "No" and there's no further discussion.

Maybe that's because sponsors put up most of the money in golf tournaments.

Regardless, you won't have to worry about it at the WSOP. No chops allowed.

An intelligent and respectful poker discussion is a more than acceptable derail.

Not facilitated, but chops can happen under the table. The Main Event was chopped one year HU.

I guess you would have to trust the other players involved, which is another can of worms.

I used to play a lot of those WSOP single table satellites. Officially, only the winner got paid anything. One of them got dow to just me and another guy. I always propose a chop because of what you said in the bolded. I had about 55% of the chips, he had about 45%. He made a ridiculous offer where he'd get about 60% of the money. I said maybe if you talk about closer to and even chop or chip chop. Nope, he was a master heads-up player. I didn't even know how many championships he won, according to him. He was famous, according to him. We play a couple more hands, now he has slightly more than 50%. I ask him again, I 'd prob go along with his first deal. Nope, now he wants 70% of the money, being he's such a great heads-up player. I told him I'd rather lose the whole thing than let someone screw me over so bad on a chop deal. He reminded me once more what a great player he was and that I was a fool not to screw myself on the chop deal.

Another hand and I had over 50% of the chips. I didn't even ask. He was really going to show me why I should've chopped, and shoved on the flop. I had flopped a straight. That's why I like to chop - even a schmoe like me can beat a master heads-up player.

Yup, and a few years ago there was a story of a guy that ran out on the other players after collecting the money. Which seems stupid because they publish the winner's name and where he's from.

2024 WSOP buildup: The next morning
Cough, sneeze, I feel lousy; it’s time to get back to the studying grind; thinking ahead to the WSOP; a statistical recap of my third-place finish

I wake up the next morning, and I feel awful. A cough, congestion, a little chilled. I remember the long COVID dealer, so I Google long COVID and it says that it is not contagious. The dealer is off the hook. I think back to last night’s dinner (with family members on Mrs. rppoker’s side) when it was pretty cold (in Arizona?) and we ate in a tented portion of a restaurant that had a bunch of large space heaters that made it so you were very warm from the waist up, while your legs were cold. This combination of hot and cold has historically made my allergies go crazy and/or makes me sick.

That is what seems to have happened. In any event, I won’t be able to play in poker tournaments today and tomorrow before heading back to Chicago. Even if I wanted to soldier through while not feeling well, doing so is not fair to my fellow poker players. I make the decision that I am sidelined, benched, eighty-sixed.

Which is a shame, because the Scottsdale, Arizona casino is just 15 minutes away from where we are staying, whereas in suburban Chicago none of the nearest casinos to me have NLHE tournaments as best as I can tell from their websites. Plus, even if they did, it’s not as easy to find the time to play in a tournament back home -- where I have a business to run, investments to oversee and family obligations -- as it is when I am on vacation in which the weather has not cooperated (I was promised Arizona heat and what I have gotten is sweater weather and overcast skies) and I can play poker by day and be with family afterward. I would have loved to see if I could follow up my third-place finish with another deep run, but instead I will just have to end my trip on a poker high note.

Once I get back home, it will be back to the poker tournament training site masterclass grind that I have been doing in recent months. Playing tournaments is way more fun, but the training site is a good/necessary investment of time if I want to get better.

I keep finding myself thinking about whether I can play GTO poker at the WSOP. Stop it, stop it, stop it. I scold myself and remind myself that my formula needs to be observe and adapt first and foremost, while being aware of a GTO style that may come into play by the stronger players on Day 2 and beyond if I get that far. For me GTO needs to be an aspiration of making increasingly correct decisions, not a magic wand. Why am I fighting this? Observe and adapt. Observe and adapt. Observe and adapt. Study the charts. Keep making good decisions. Then make more great decisions. Then make even more great decisions. Make enough great decisions and eventually you are playing something approaching Game Theory Optimal. The goal isn’t to learn GTO. The goal is to learn to make as many great decisions as possible. It’s going to be a long road to get there. I have to be OK with that.

Finally, a statistical recap of my third-place finish. In six-and-a-half hours of play I was dealt the following quality hands:

K-K once
Q-Q once
J-J twice
10-10 once
A-K four times
A-Q five times
A-J three times.

I don’t know how many premium hands I should expect in six-and-a-half hours of play, but it felt to me like I got an adequate number of quality hands. I only won 1-of-3 flips which is mildly negative variance, but for me winning even one flip was better than I am accustomed to. Perhaps most importantly, whenever I was way ahead after the flop, I did not experience any bad beats like I did so often on river disasters during my 2019 WSOP.

2024 WSOP buildup: Post vacation
The run good continues

We fly home from vacation. The Super Bowl kicks off while we are mid-flight. When Mrs. rppoker first realized a few weeks ago that she had booked our return flight during the Super Bowl she had asked me if she should change our return date. At the time, I told her not to bother. We had used miles for the flight, and I thought it would be a hassle to make the change. I told her I would tape the game and watch it when we got home. Before we left on our trip, I punched in the information to tape the game and had the foresight to program it to continue for two hours after the game was supposed to end (the game went into overtime, but the recording captured it all -- I’m a genius).

Our plane lands and I get home without anyone wrecking the game by saying anything to me about the score (I wear airbuds through the airport to make sure I don’t hear anyone talking about the game, and I do not look at my cell phone thereby ignoring the text messages from people who do not realize I am watching the game on a delay).

I watch the game fast forwarding past all of the commercials and the entire halftime show, and I almost catch up to real time. Once I have seen the end of the Kansas City Chiefs overtime win over the San Francisco 49ers, I text my younger daughter to congratulate her. She went to Kansas for college, and she (and the entire campus) got caught up in Chiefs mania when they won the first Super Bowl of the Patrick Mahomes/Andy Reid era. Thus, the Chiefs are her pro football team. My younger daughter has pretty much gone to a Michigan football game a year with me since she was maybe 10 years old. So, Michigan is also her team. Obviously, her alma mater is also her team.

What this all means is that her NFL team (Chiefs) has won three Super Bowls in the last five seasons, during which time her college (Kansas) has won a basketball national title, and her adopted college football team (Michigan) has just won a national title. She thinks this is normal.

After she accepts my congratulations, she tells me to check the chair in my home office. I look and see that she and her sister have bought me a Highland Mint limited edition framed photo of the field in the immediate aftermath of Michigan’s football national championship with the confetti flying, the score superimposed and a special coin included commemorating the title victory.

But there is more. While we were in Arizona, my older daughter’s long-time boyfriend has been staying at our house and looking after our dog Astro. My daughter’s boyfriend has been bringing in our mail for us. As I go through the mail, I find something that resolves the one missing piece of me going to the national championship game that my Wolverines just won. You see, the tickets to the game were all electronic. Gone are the days of the tickets being awesome works of art that you got to keep. On the wall that I have a picture of my dad and I at a past Super Bowl, I have our tickets tacked up next to the photo. I really wish I could do the same for the college football national title just won. Low and behold, what I have just received in the mail is a commemorative national title game ticket from the Michigan Athletic Department to all season ticket holders. It’s like they knew exactly what I wanted.

The run good does not seem like it will ever end.

It is now almost midnight and I celebrate by drinking a Dr Pepper and firing up my tournament poker training site so I can dig into a 30-minute video on 3-bet pots as the preflop caller. Life does not get much better than this.

Or as Dale Carnegie once said, “Success is getting what you want. Happiness is wanting what you get.”

All this Michigan talk (Go State!). Has anyone seen RTP and rrpoker in the same room together?

:-) :-) :-)

I have a question for the experienced hands when it comes to the WSOP.

Let's say on Sunday night I buy in to a tourney that begins on Monday and another tourney that starts the next day on Tuesday. If I make Day 2 of the Monday tournament, can I get a full refund on the Tuesday buy-in that I already paid for but now can't play in?

You should play both

You can. If you dont show up, they'll pick up your chips after approx 2 hours and your money will be sitting at the cage.

But the best option is just don't buy into Tuesdays event until you need to/ bust mondays. Remember these tournaments have very long late reg and many people do not show up on time anymore.

I just got chills down my spine.

2024 WSOP buildup: February 15, 2024
The study grind gets difficult, meanwhile the World Series of … Tanking?

Studying on my online poker training site is suddenly a bit tedious. OK, make that more tedious than usual. It’s not like it was ever pop-the-champagne cork exciting, but I understood that there was a very good reason to keep plowing forward. I still grasp the importance of studying, watching videos and trying to master charts, but after recently playing live tournaments at Talking Stick, the mundane nature of poker studying seems harder. I keep at it (yay me).

Meanwhile, STILL waiting for the WSOP schedule to get released. Hello, is anybody home?

The glass is half full perspective is, I guess, it was good that the schedule did not drop yesterday on Valentine’s Day. Had the schedule been released on Valentine’s Day, that strikes me as very, very, very negative EV for us married folk. I mean, can you imagine the conversation that would have ensued when I got home from work?

“Hi honey! … Uhhhhh … Happy Valentine’s Day … (pause) … Here are your flowers and a card. … (lengthy pause, much hemming and hawing) … Before we go out for dinner, ummmmmm … (clears throat, no eye contact) … can we discuss which 12 days I’d like to go to Las Vegas without you for the WSOP? … I really, really, really love you!”

The glass is half empty perspective is, the WSOP schedule still has not been released!!!!!!!!!! What on God’s green earth are they waiting for?

Waiting for the schedule to come out for this long is like watching paint dry. … Wait … let me check … I’m pretty sure … just double checking … yep, I can confirm …I am absolutely certain … the paint is completely dry.

And we keep waiting …

That used to happen sometimes when everything was in the Amazon room.

2024 WSOP buildup: February 16, 2024
WSOP schedule release, my wife is awesome, a $413 bad beat, I’m fully booked

The schedule is out! The schedule is out! The schedule is out!

I am as excited as a dog chasing its tail in circles at warp speed.

I quickly peruse the schedule. Boxes to be checked for me are: 1) NLHE events in my price range that allow me to play virtually every day in a 12-day window, 2) deep structures when possible, with turbos only if needed to fill in a day without the price point/structure I desire, and 3) avoidance of my wife’s birthday as well as our wedding anniversary.

It takes me very little time to find the dates and tournaments that fit my requirements.

Next step, talk to the wife. Mrs. rppoker knows I have been anxiously waiting for the release of the WSOP schedule, so it’s not like my phone call while I am at work to her is a surprise to her.

I give her the dates I would like to be in Las Vegas for the WSOP. The rest of our conversation goes like this:

Mrs. rppoker: “How many days is that?”

Me: “Twelve. Same as the last time I played in the World Series of Poker.”

Mrs. rppoker: “You want to be away from me for 12 days? You must not love me.”

Me: “I love you very much.”

Mrs. rppoker: “In that case you can go.”

In poker terms, my wife is a royal flush.

Next up, I go online to make reservations. I did an Airbnb stay at The Signature at MGM Grand the last time I played in the WSOP, and I was very happy with my accommodations. It’s a nice suite at a reasonable price point. It’s roomy but not over the top. It has a refrigerator, stove and a safe. There are no resort fees. There is no charge for parking. It is quiet and calm. I will go with what worked the last time.

I look for a superhost with impeccable ratings. I find what I am looking for, and the cost is about $400 less than what I expected. I send the superhost a message asking for confirmation that the suite has a safe. It takes about 10 minutes to get an affirmative confirmation, and the superhost tells me the space is available for the dates I want. I click a few buttons, type in credit card information and hit the final button. I get a message that says there is a problem with the host’s calendar and I needed to check with them.

I send a message to the superhost asking what is happening. While waiting for an answer I see that the suite is no longer available. Does this mean my reservation went through and there is just some bug in the system? Or does it mean that I lost out on the suite to someone else at the last second? It takes another 10 minutes to get an answer. Someone else (which one of you 2+2ers is responsible?) reserved the space moments/seconds before I tried to. Well, that sucks.

Onward. I find another suite at the Signature through Airbnb that is what I want. This suite, however, is $413 more for the 12 nights I’ll be staying than the first suite that I lost out on. I haven’t even set foot in Las Vegas, and already a bad beat. I take it in stride. I grab the higher priced suite since it is still exactly at what I had budgeted for lodging in the first place.

Next, I make my flight reservations through Expedia. United Airlines to Las Vegas. American Airlines on the way back home. The reservations go through but I am notified that one or both of my seat choices were not available and I need to call the airlines to get seats. Nothing is going smoothly, but still not the end of the world. I go through the 8 million electronic prompts it takes to get to an actual human being, and now I have seat assignments. Window seats, not middle seats. Let the run good begin.

Next, I reserve a rental car. For this there are no problems.

I am fully booked. Even with the booking hiccups, the entire process from calling my wife through getting everything reserved only took an hour. Modern technology really speeds things up. Also amazingly, when you consider how much more things cost today than they did in 2019, my costs for hotel, flight and car are exactly the same as they were in 2019 when I last played in the WSOP.

And now a new wait begins. With the wait for the schedule release finally over, now I must wait for the calendar to advance to the start of the 2024 WSOP.

2024 WSOP buildup: February 19, 2024
If I were the King of the WSOP, the tournament I’d add is almost certainly an unpopular idea … plus one other change I’d make that might be more agreeable to poker players

I’ve studied the various tournaments available in the newly released WSOP schedule, and something jumps out at me. What’s with all of the 10:00 a.m. Day 1 starting times? When I think of poker, I think of playing deeeeeeeeeeeep into the night. I don’t think sunshine. I think darkness.

And I certainly don’t think of 10:00 a.m. starts. In my mind’s eye, poker players are supposed to be nocturnal creatures. Card-playing vampires who come out at night and avoid sunlight.

I am a night owl. I may be a gray-haired 61-year-old, but I stay up long into the night. My usual bedtime is 2:00 a.m. I don’t get tired late. Late at night is my time to do the things I like with no one to bother me. Conversely, I hate early morning wake up calls. Even if I were to go to bed early, I just do not function well with 8:00 or 9:00 morning alarm clock settings. I do not understand morning people. How can someone be cheerful at 8:00 a.m.? It’s just … wrong. For me to make a 10:00 a.m. tournament start time, I will definitely need to set an alarm. In fact, I will probably have to set the alarm on my cell phone for three separate times to make sure I don’t wake up and fall right back to sleep.

This gets me thinking, if I were King of the WSOP, what tournament would I add? The answer is obvious. I would call it The Marathon or The All-Nighter. It would start at 12 noon, which to me is a respectable start time for a poker player. High noon, yeah, that sounds right. And we would play straight through to the finish (OK, meal breaks would be allowed, but that’s it). And I’m not talking a turbo where you finish in less than a full day after a reasonable number of hours because the blinds go up so insanely fast. I would want the structure to be somewhat deep. Let’s say 40,000 starting chips and the blinds go up every 40-60 minutes, or whatever the structure needs to be to have the tournament finish 24-36 hours after it starts.

No Day 2. Just Day 1 until the finish. I guess there is a Day 2, but it’s really just Day 1 not ending. No bagging of chips and a good night’s sleep. You play until there is a winner. You play straight through until you have all the chips. Sleep? You can sleep when you’re dead. Old-school poker. I would love a tournament that challenges you physically, challenges your endurance, challenges your ability to ignore fatigue.

I realize/strongly suspect that most people will probably think this is a terrible idea. But it fits me perfectly. There will be almost 100 live tournaments at the WSOP (and if there is room for zany Badugi …). I’m just asking for one no sleep’em hold’em event. Think Doyle back in the day during his Texas roadhouse traveling days, where you played through the night (and maybe two nights) and didn’t stop until someone had all the chips and everyone else was flat broke busted. Your idea of mercy was giving your final vanquished foe – who now has empty pockets -- cab fare to their hotel. Ten a.m. was when the game stopped, not when it started.

P.S. – If I were made King of the World (as opposed to just the King of the WSOP), the step I’d take to make my WSOP poker experience better is I would create U.S. $1,000 bills so I wouldn’t have to carry so damn many $100 bills to the WSOP.