Quote:
Originally Posted by AA Suited
best game is $1 8/5 bonus poker at Rio.
but it'll take you 9 hrs each day to get 2500tc.
next best is $1 triple play 'double super times pay' 9/5 Jacks or better variety at Planet Hollywood high limit area.
4hrs on that machine will get you 5000 tc + 10k bonus tc =15k tc = instant diamond.
but $50k coin-in at 99% vp = $500 cost (on average)
altho 5k tc in a day *should* get you $100 free slot play 4 days later.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pig4bill
Except video poker doesn't work that way in the short run. The 99% return in the long run is based on hitting a certain number of $4000 royals. In a short run of 4000 hands you will either hit a royal or you won't. If you hit a royal you'll probably win $3000, if you don't you'll probably lose $1000. It's very unlikely you will lose approximately $200.
This (Bill's post) is a misunderstanding of basic probability. The outcome of a series of VP hands, short or long, does not hinge in a binary fashion on the number of royals hit, but does take on one of a given number of values, each of which will appear with a given probability, which in itself depends on the game your play..
Your outcome is
likely to fall within certain values, which as the number of trials (hands played) increases will fall closer and closer to the mathematically expected outcome. As a rule of thumb, 99.7% of the time your outcome will fall within three standard deviations of the mathematically expected outcome.
If you (like most) are not super statistically inclined, there are free VP simulators online, capable of simulating the play of a given (large) number of hands (my chromebook does not run java, so I cannot endorse any of them), where you can play with the results.
As stated, it is incorrect that you will "probably win $3000 [or] probably lose $1000" depending on whether you hit a royal or not. You can play tens of thousands of VP hands and come out with a profit without ever seeing a royal. Or you can hit your royal and still lose.
The most important take home is, that we are
not talking about prediction - we are talking about
likely outcomes. That is why it is called gambling.