best game is $1 8/5 bonus poker at Rio.
but it'll take you 9 hrs each day to get 2500tc.

next best is $1 triple play 'double super times pay' 9/5 Jacks or better variety at Planet Hollywood high limit area.
4hrs on that machine will get you 5000 tc + 10k bonus tc =15k tc = instant diamond.

but $50k coin-in at 99% vp = $500 cost (on average)
altho 5k tc in a day *should* get you $100 free slot play 4 days later.

How much a spin in the Planet Hollywood game? $21 right?

Do you know the spread of expected outcome on that game going for 5k tier credits?

yes, $21 a spin.
no clue on spread but it's your best choice in Vegas if you want to make Diamond quickly.

if u want to drive 100miles each way, Harrahs Laughlin has $5 8/5 bonus poker

Except video poker doesn't work that way in the short run. The 99% return in the long run is based on hitting a certain number of $4000 royals. In a short run of 4000 hands you will either hit a royal or you won't. If you hit a royal you'll probably win $3000, if you don't you'll probably lose $1000. It's very unlikely you will lose approximately $200.

Understood.

That's why I had asked in my response about the theoretical range of win loss.

will MGM match CET Diamond tier?

Gonna be a serious bummer if FC doesn't continue to provide Diamond.

Will be a major bummer if Founders no longer provides diamond.

Which brings up this question: I just used a 2016 Diamond Celebration dinner tonight, since it would have expired at the end of January.

Are the 2017 Celebration dinners available yet? If so, everyone on Founders needs to use these up by Tuesday!

You can use a 2016 dinner thing this many days after? I thought you had to use it right away. Crap, I never got my 2016 dinner because there wasn't a convenient time on my last trip.

Any particular person you're emailing with? Mine expires in February too. Need to let them know I won't be renewing without this benefit.

This (Bill's post) is a misunderstanding of basic probability. The outcome of a series of VP hands, short or long, does not hinge in a binary fashion on the number of royals hit, but does take on one of a given number of values, each of which will appear with a given probability, which in itself depends on the game your play..

Your outcome is likely to fall within certain values, which as the number of trials (hands played) increases will fall closer and closer to the mathematically expected outcome. As a rule of thumb, 99.7% of the time your outcome will fall within three standard deviations of the mathematically expected outcome.

If you (like most) are not super statistically inclined, there are free VP simulators online, capable of simulating the play of a given (large) number of hands (my chromebook does not run java, so I cannot endorse any of them), where you can play with the results.

As stated, it is incorrect that you will "probably win $3000 [or] probably lose $1000" depending on whether you hit a royal or not. You can play tens of thousands of VP hands and come out with a profit without ever seeing a royal. Or you can hit your royal and still lose.

The most important take home is, that we are not talking about prediction - we are talking about likely outcomes. That is why it is called gambling.

What is caesars' policy for most you can cash out of a VP machine without getting a withholding?


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They sent me an email offer for 500 tier credits by staying at one of their properties. So i booked and stayed a night at ballys last week. Room only cost like 60 total, so for 500tc i would gladly do it again as i want to make diamond this year.

My question is can i just use the same offer again? They sent me another email with the same 500 tc offer yesterday. Anyone?

The 99.7% w/in 3 SDs thing is only true is the range of outcomes is itself normally distributed. But this isn't what the range of outcomes of 10000 hands of VP looks like (this is the number of $5 hands you'd have to play in a day to get Diamond). Instead, it looks like one large normal curve almost entirely on the negative side of the graph (the distribution when you hit no royal), another much smaller normal curve on the positive side (the distribution when you hit one royal), and a third very small curve waaaaay on the positive end (when you hit two royal).

It is a very right-skewed distribution, meaning the median outcome will be quite a bit lower than the expectation, but the 99th%ile outcome will be much higher than you would calculate just knowing the mean and SD.

But the upshot is that if you hit a royal in 10000 hands you will certainly win money, but if you don't hit one you are overwhelmingly likely to lose.

(I should amend this to say this is what the distribution specifically looks like for JoB. If you are playing a game where something other than a royal gives an extremely high payout, like 4 dueces in dueces wild, the outcome distribution will be less obviously bimodal, and you can win without a royal if you hit an above expected number of other premium hands.)

We're not talking about tens of thousands of hands, we're talking about 4000 hands, which is the short run. Because a royal (or big quads if you're playing some varieties) pays so much, it skews results huge whether you hit one or not. A large number of those 4000 hands are going to be losers most of the time. Sure, there are going to be rare occurrences where you lose even if you hit a royal, or you win money even if you don't hit a royal. That's why I used the word "probably" in my post.

Take the royal payout out of the ev calculation. In the short run, that's where your results will likely fall. Since a royal is supposed to occur only once every 40k hands, in most 4k hand runs that's generally going to be the outcome.

All VP machines in all casinos will let you cash out (print a ticket) for any amount of money. You can then redeem your payment ticket for cash money at a ballbuster machine, or at the cashier's cage.

The only time you get a W-2G tax form is if you win $1200 or more all at once.

If you hit a jackpot worth $1200 or more on a VP machine (or on a slot machine) the machine will lock up, and "CALL ATTENDANT" will be displayed. You do not need to call an attendant, one will be automatically summoned for you. The attendant will want your ID and social security number. The attendant will take your ID; and will return in a few minutes with your ID, a stack of Ben Franklins, and a W-2G tax form. This is called a "hand pay" because the attendant will count the $100 bills into your hand. After paying the jackpot, the attendant will then reset and reactivate the machine, and any money credit that was on the machine before you hit the jackpot will still be there.

If you don't have your government issued ID on you, you will have to go and get it in order to get your hand-pay.

I hope you get to experience this for yourself sometime soon!

Good post above, but you left out the part where they awkwardly stand there after they pay you while waiting for their tip.

simple solution.
ask for a check instead of cash

You can also ask for a slot ticket, that's what I usually do

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Rumor about Founder's Card renewal:
you get Diamond for 60 days.
you have to earn 15k tier points in that time to maintain Diamond status, else drop to Platinum

If that's true, I at least hope it's 60 days from when you activate that perk, and not from when you renew membership, since it's not automatic and you have to explicitly go in and claim the Diamond upgrade.

yeah, I hope that's bad info. I'll be at the Horseshoe in Bossier Feb 9, so I guess I'll definitely use the Celebration Dinner while I'm there, just in case.

Edit: I usually don't keep track of my physical Diamond card and just get a new one every time I go. Guess I better keep the next one for line skipping purposes, lol.

yeah whenever word comes from TR or Founders please post it here. I have trips planned 2/2, 2/7 and 3/21-26 so I'd be fine with 2 months then i can decide if i want to DIAD.

Except that if you renew, you're only buying 60 days for that three (or four) hundred bucks.

This.

If either Diamond doesn't get renewed at all or they go to 60 days or whatever I think they are going to lose a lot of customers. I wonder if they realize how many customers they have solely because of this Diamond upgrade? I also wonder if the problem (not having agreed on promotion) is on FC end or CET end?