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Old 11-14-2012, 02:30 AM   #426
cushlash
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Re: cushlash in Vegas; TLDR

Ok so just to get the math part right, 3 90's and 3 dead 15's makes the pot 315 and it was 415 more, so pot is 730, 415 to call. Equity needed is 36.24%. If squids range is accurate its basically neutral EV and with Rob's its slightly negative.
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Old 11-14-2012, 02:36 AM   #427
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Re: cushlash in Vegas; TLDR

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Originally Posted by squid face View Post
ok here is my side - this is y i make teh big bux (no joke here)

weak player that sees monsters under teh bed opens for 15, fool calls, cush calls, 2 more call. I has J6 sooted I squeeze.

as I figured weak player sigh folds

Moran calls - I assume he is set mining here and will fold to strong c -bet

cush shoves - ok what is he shoving with??

well...I promise it is not JJ+ - - He 3 bets this all day long b/c he does not want a cascade of cawlers - I actually think he 3 bets TT here a decent % of the time

it is not AK and not likely AQ - same as above (doesnt really matter though cuz I am still getting right price to cawl sooo its moot but I like to think of every thang) (if AJ congrats u got me dominated)

so what is left 22-99/TT

more weighted to 55-99

u know what my equity is v that range (hint: stove it and get back to me)

I know when I reshove for 200 more -moran that called initial raise and my 3 bet to 90 folds and I b freezin out his equity

sooo I am riding the variance train on this one. Squeeze went wrong but based on equity and odds I had to go with it. If moran does not call teh 90 I let it go.

This thought process which is beyond the scope of so many is the precise reason why I stomp this game for north of 50$/hr

I like and respect cushes play - we have had numerous conversations about lines and alternative lines - so I know that he knows that I know what he and I are both thinking

It is also y I am alowed to breed and get laid on a regla basis


point of story - dont hate....appreciate!
Thanks for sharing your thought process in such detail!!!
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Old 11-14-2012, 10:30 AM   #428
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MSchu18 View Post
you need that hand to be good GREATER than 50%(@2 to 1) of the time you make that call in order for that to be a +EV play... if I am not mistaken, that is a hand with one over and a flush draw with approximately 32-33% equity, PRE FLOP... post flop that drops considerably to about 14-15%.

you play guitar EADGBE?
wasnt making any comment on his equity there, just that the pot odds posted seemed wrong and the 1.75 - 1 estimate given by squid was more than fair.

and yes i do, but badly.
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Old 11-14-2012, 12:07 PM   #429
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Re: cushlash in Vegas; TLDR

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Originally Posted by MSchu18 View Post
you need that hand to be good GREATER than 50%(@2 to 1) of the time you make that call in order for that to be a +EV play... if I am not mistaken
You are very mistaken. If you're getting 2 to 1 you only need to be good >33.3% of the time to be +EV.

Squids play is never going to be far from breakeven in either direction, but if the table sees him make a move like this with J6s they might adjust poorly against him and he can be rewarded handsomely in future hands.
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Old 11-14-2012, 12:32 PM   #430
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Re: cushlash in Vegas; TLDR

correct... 33.3+%/66.6%, that is 50% or 2/1 which he was slightly less than by 12.5%(1.75/2)

^and don't paraphrase: if I am not mistaken, that is a hand with one over and a flush draw with approximately 32-33% equity, PRE FLOP...

Last edited by MSchu18; 11-14-2012 at 12:45 PM.
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Old 11-14-2012, 03:09 PM   #431
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Re: cushlash in Vegas; TLDR

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Originally Posted by MSchu18 View Post
correct... 33.3+%/66.6%, that is 50% or 2/1 which he was slightly less than by 12.5%(1.75/2)

^and don't paraphrase: if I am not mistaken, that is a hand with one over and a flush draw with approximately 32-33% equity, PRE FLOP...
I guess you understand, but the way you say it makes no sense. Also, you'd be easier to understand if you didn't write like a child.
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Old 11-14-2012, 03:36 PM   #432
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Re: cushlash in Vegas; TLDR

well there you go... I guess I meet the approval of el duderino. gee, that makes me so happy.

Last edited by MSchu18; 11-14-2012 at 03:41 PM.
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Old 11-14-2012, 04:05 PM   #433
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Re: cushlash in Vegas; TLDR

The only value I see in shoving J6 there is for image because if you put cush on the best possible range for you it is maybe neutral EV. It is interesting though because I would just automuck it when in reality it is closer than it looks given how much dead money is in the pot.

Reminds me of the other day when some guy opened to 35 got 4 callers and I made it 200 from the bb with K5s. Folded to one of the regulars in middle position and she shoved for about 800 with obviously either AK or a mid pair. I folded but if she had around 700 it's probably a call and I might have just folded without thinking about the odds.
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Old 11-14-2012, 11:23 PM   #434
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Re: cushlash in Vegas; TLDR

Sorry to budge in Cush but I did the same thing as squid with same results and felt like it was a bad play but I guess not so terrible after reading squids reply.

I'm BB and utg made it 15 seven callers to me with J6 off and made it $180 and folds all way around and I'm like YES til sb shoves for $400 total and I figure I had to call. He had 77 and I hit trip 6s but he boated up
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Old 11-15-2012, 01:07 AM   #435
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Make it 115 over the 7 limpers, fold to sb shove. Too much fps at these stakes, geez.
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Old 11-15-2012, 03:28 AM   #436
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Re: cushlash in Vegas; TLDR

Ok there's been a lot of back and forth about that hand but I think the point of good discussion has been long passed and I really don't want the thread to turn into a derail about that hand.

So moving on, I played a couple more sessions in the last few days and have kept trucking toward my BR goal for 5/10. Yesterday I got stuck early due to a failed squeeze attempt similar to Squid's. Got called and shoved the flop with top pair, got called by middle pair+straight draw and her straight got there. After that I made one somewhat questionable call in a hand and was fairly quickly in for 2 full buy-ins. Grinded up a bit before getting KK all-in preflop against what I was told was a smaller pair. I had been playing pretty aggressive which is I'm sure why this player decided to ship in 150 bbs with QQ or less.

Today was a pretty interesting session. One player at the table played every single hand, always raising to 15 or calling the raise in front of him. Then, curiously, on the flop he would check if he missed but check/call with literally any draw, including just having two overcards. It was sorta boring because this player basically sucked all the energy out of the game and it basically became "who can make a hand against this fish?". There was really no stealing to be done because every flop was 4 or 5 ways because of the fish. I missed flops for the first few hours, then won a huge pot with AA after turning a set against a guy's AK on a KQ5A board. Pretty much nothing else happened but I booked a nice win due to that hand.
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Old 11-17-2012, 04:53 AM   #437
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Re: cushlash in Vegas; TLDR

Hey guys, past few sessions have been both good and bad. The good part is I've booked wins in both, but the bad part is I'm not as pumped about it as I should be. Yesterday I made one mistake early and spent the rest of my session playing really well, booking a small win. It wasn't a huge mistake, but it was definitely a mistake and one that I shouldn't be making.

Today I won fairly big and made no major mistakes to speak of but I felt myself spacing out a lot in my session and in a couple instances I think I could have played better had I been paying better attention. This and the mistake from yesterday I feel like is stemming from a bit of burn out causing me to go on autopilot at times. This is something that I have been fighting hard to avoid so I'm glad to have noticed early because really the last few sessions have been the first its happened since going back to holdem.

So tomorrow I'm taking off, though I was gonna take off regardless. My parents are flying in and its college football saturday so especially with this burnout feeling, it couldn't have come at a better time.

I've also been having some good strat discussions with RobFarha, a poster here that I met in Vegas in September. Along with improving our games, I think this will also keep autopilot at bay because if after a few sessions I have nothing to discuss, it probably means I wasn't paying close enough attention.

Lastly, I'm very close to my BR goal for 5/10 and could hit as early as next week. So my focus next week is gonna be, well, focusing. I feel like I've made a lot of improvement the last few months and the last thing I want to do is fall back into autopilot grinding. I also want to be on my A game for my 5/10 shot.

Last edited by cushlash; 11-17-2012 at 04:58 AM.
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Old 11-17-2012, 10:49 AM   #438
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Re: cushlash in Vegas; TLDR

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Ok there's been a lot of back and forth about that hand but I think the point of good discussion has been long passed and I really don't want the thread to turn into a derail about that hand.
I don't think the back and fourth even had a chance to develop taylor... all folks were doing was discussing the math over the call, not whether or not it was a good call. Not one aspect of reverse implied odds or whether or not this move was more akin to an appropriate tournament/icm play as opposed to a good cash game play was discussed. If you run this hand 1000 times, walts call will net a less than optimal return and not achieve the break even threshold. I understand the 88 shove given the read, that is a beautiful play... but the call is open to interpretation. That being said, walts read on you was pretty spot on and gusty... props to you both.

I think you need to read some of the posts above in jest, specially by those that know you personally.
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Old 11-17-2012, 02:49 PM   #439
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Re: cushlash in Vegas; TLDR

The J6 play is atrocious.
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Old 11-17-2012, 03:40 PM   #440
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Re: cushlash in Vegas; TLDR

The thought process was solid... but one aspect I don't like(for my game).

in a vacuum, the hand plays pretty nicely between the two, certainly J/9+ is much place to be than is J/6 given a read of middle pair... having one over is a bit gamblicious, But I understand it. Talyor should heed warning on this if walts read is so clearly accurate, the read on Walt is fairly clear in my eyes also and I have only payed on the table with him one time.

One aspect of the hand that is over looked because it didn't affect action is the assumption of future play by V... in other words, the Probability that V would absolutely fold versus a reshove. There is no absolute way to determine that line in the future for V... only the probability of that line occurring. I think that is the "HOPEFUL" portion of the equation that seems to be getting overlooked.

Yes, V's pot odds decrease based on the additional money in the pot if the stacks are deep enough and V has a marginal hand, but if V has a monster Hand in the top 5% or 10%, the play by both walt and taylor begins to look completely different. We don't get a picture of the size of Walt's reshove and we don't know how big V's stack was. I assume total pot was somewhere around 950$ and the V would need to call off 625'ish making it somewhere around 1.5/1 on the call(which seems to be why walt reshoved instead of just calling).

SPR doesn't really come into play here because it's a shove.

I do find the hand very interesting to break down.

Last edited by MSchu18; 11-17-2012 at 03:49 PM.
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Old 11-17-2012, 03:52 PM   #441
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MSchu18 View Post
The thought process was solid... but one aspect I don't like(for my game).

in a vacuum, the hand plays pretty nicely between the two, certainly J/9+ is much place to be than is J/6 given a read of middle pair... having one over is a bit gamblicious, But I understand it. Talyor should heed warning on this if walts read is so clearly accurate, the read on Walt is fairly clear in my eyes also and I have only payed on the table with him one time.

One aspect of the hand that is over looked because it didn't affect action is the assumption of future play by V... in other words, the Probability that V would absolutely fold versus a reshove. There is no absolute way to determine that line in the future for V... only the probability of that line occurring. I think that is the "HOPEFUL" portion of the equation that seems to be getting overlooked.

Yes, V's pot odds decrease based on the additional money in the pot if the stacks are deep enough and V has a marginal hand, but if V has a monster Hand in the top 5% or 10%, the play by both walt and taylor begins to look completely different. We don't get a picture of the size of Walt's reshove and we don't know how big V's stack was. I assume total pot was somewhere around 950$ and the V would need to call off 625'ish making it somewhere around 1.5/1 on the call(which seems to be why walt reshoved instead of just calling).

SPR doesn't really come into play here because it's a shove.

I do find the hand very interesting to break down.
You need to spend less time posting and more time organizing LVL member meet-ups!!!

In town for four days next week...
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Old 11-17-2012, 03:54 PM   #442
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Re: cushlash in Vegas; TLDR

oh yeah?

I got it, thanksgiving meet for poker players?
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Old 11-17-2012, 03:57 PM   #443
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oh yeah?

I got it, thanksgiving meet for poker players?
I am flying in late Thursday afternoon after thanksgiving lunch at my aunt's. leaving Sunday
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Old 11-17-2012, 04:04 PM   #444
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Re: cushlash in Vegas; TLDR

IC... let me put my thinking cap on
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Old 11-17-2012, 04:08 PM   #445
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IC... let me put my thinking cap on
Ok. Let me take my "randomly hijacking other people's thread with my travel plans" cap off.
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Old 11-17-2012, 11:41 PM   #446
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oh yeah?

I got it, thanksgiving meet for poker players?
I'm in!
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Old 11-18-2012, 12:06 AM   #447
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Re: cushlash in Vegas; TLDR

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I'm in!
Starberry texted me and said he wanted to go to the Thunder from Down Under show. I naturally agreed.
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Old 11-18-2012, 12:17 AM   #448
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Re: cushlash in Vegas; TLDR

less bull**** derail.
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Old 11-18-2012, 12:29 AM   #449
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Re: cushlash in Vegas; TLDR

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Starberry texted me and said he wanted to go to the Thunder from Down Under show. I naturally agreed.
I'm out!
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Old 11-18-2012, 12:30 AM   #450
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@Taylor: sorry for the derail, we will finish planning the outing in the meet-up thread. Of course, would love for you to join us.
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