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Coronavirus & Vegas, and now Real Estate Coronavirus & Vegas, and now Real Estate

03-13-2020 , 09:26 PM
Lots of “layoffs” and temporary closures at MGM and Caesar’s properties per Vital Vegas
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03-13-2020 , 09:43 PM
Heard Wynn poker room closing Sunday morning. Others probably not far behind.
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03-13-2020 , 09:43 PM
Wynn poker room and sports book closing for 3 weeks as of Sunday.
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03-13-2020 , 09:46 PM

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03-13-2020 , 10:06 PM
Mirage is putting their entire table games department on layoff/on call status effective Monday the 16th. Apparently a couple dozen dealers (out of 200+) with the most seniority are staying on for now but may get rescheduled.

I assume it'll be the same or soon at other properties.
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03-13-2020 , 10:08 PM
I was going for weekend 1 of march madness but cancelled this morning. Hoping to get back to Vegas in the fall. This too shall pass.
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03-13-2020 , 11:07 PM
I will remain hopefull for our May 25th arrival... We will give it 8 weeks and see where we are at...
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03-14-2020 , 12:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Palo
Stocks were at pretty high historical valuations less than a month ago. A 25% haircut just gets them into the slightly cheap range. Unfortunately, once the earnings downgrades come in the valuations will be back to rather high even if the stock prices don't move anymore. Thus, I'm guessing that more selling is likely and we could go another 20-30% lower from here assuming earnings don't tank even more to continue the death spiral.

Stocks can go irrationally high and they can drop to irrationally low levels. When it gets to the point where you're sick at the thought of buying anything that's when we might be getting towards a low. Right now we're in the shock phase, not the sick phase.
This is my thought as well. It's impossible to time the market and iI wouldn't dissuade anyone from dipping their toes in, but stocks needed a healthy 15 to 20% correction even before coronavirus. Coronavirus changes the whole game though.

I also don't think there needs to be any urgency to jump back in. It's highly unlikely that this thing is resolved quickly or that we breakout to make new highs anytime soon.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Palo
The travel, hospitality, and oil sectors are getting murdered right now. Absolutely murdered. Banks have hundreds of billions in loans out to small and medium sized oil companies that can't break even if oil is below $50/barrel and we're at $31 right now. Real estate will suffer because millions of people are going to be missing paychecks really soon for at least a few weeks so mortgage defaults will rise and house prices will fall. That will put more pressure on banks.
The vast majority of industries are going to be hurt by this. We are heading into a global recession. Even companies like Google and Facebook are going to get killed on ad revenue. No clue if that happens next quarter or next year but it will happen.
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03-14-2020 , 01:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by drbeechwood
I was going for weekend 1 of march madness but cancelled this morning. Hoping to get back to Vegas in the fall. This too shall pass.
It's kind of weird how there was a delayed reaction, but I guess it took awhile for everyone to cancel their rooms. Lots available the next two weeks at dirt cheap prices.
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03-14-2020 , 01:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pig4bill
It's kind of weird how there was a delayed reaction, but I guess it took awhile for everyone to cancel their rooms. Lots available the next two weeks at dirt cheap prices.
Yep they are coming down. People are still hanging on to later trips hopeful that it will still happen.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
The prices haven't fallen nearly enough. Like Bally's is still generally $100+ or $200+ for a weekend night plus resort fees. It's ****ing ridiculous.
For March/April this has fallen to $64/nt or even $54/nt on some weekends. Still, after resort fees and taxes that's around $100/nt. On weekdays they have rooms for $10/nt, but again after resort fees that's like $50/nt.

Whether the prices are low or high the resort fees really turn me off from wanting to buy. Funny enough, Caesars literally just raised resort fees for a few hotels earlier this month.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher
Remember after September 11th you could fly to Europe for like $100? This is expected to hit the travel industry even harder than that. Yet, if I go to Southwest.com, most weekdays it would still be $200 roundtrip to fly Dallas to Vegas. In the past decade I've flown to Vegas many times for $100 roundtrip.
Now I'm seeing more of a mixture of $90 round trip and $180 roundtrip as the cheapest prices. As people continue to cut their trips there should be more of the $90 round trip prices.
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03-14-2020 , 02:48 AM
tldr: if the covid-19 situation gets worse, and it will given the lack of testing for > 4-weeks, over the next 2-months the economy/stocks are going to feel some serious pain; in particular, underlying the corporate/stock situation, is a lot of debt, of which some $8-$10 trillion are simply junk bonds; this will be the next trigger, an additional level of pain for the u.s. after covid-19; the banks are also exposed to corporate loans of possibly as much as $30-$40 trillion; even while these junk bonds have maturities extending out 2-yrs or more, when these companies have very reduced cash flows during an extended recession, they will get smashed; after the covid-19 black swan runs its course, the junk-bonds trouble ensues, corporations will need more than just stimulus, but federal-bailouts, i.e. taxpayers; this is the result of having such low fed rates for decades; I would have to agree with those posters who are saying the bottom for the market/economy has not been breached;
ironic note: michael milkin the junk bond king just got pardoned by trump;
p.s. trump really wants to bailout the shale oil companies, who are on the brink of bankruptcy due to their loans/junk-bond situations, given oil price < $40;
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03-14-2020 , 03:11 AM
China will buy up all those companies.
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03-14-2020 , 05:02 AM
I definitely am interested in buying a bit of Wynn and MGM shares as they get lower and lower
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03-14-2020 , 05:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by that_pope
China will buy up all those companies.
China is more restrictive about allowing its citizen to move money out of China these days and China itself has a tough enough task trying to bail out its own economy and save Chinese companies from bankruptcy.
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03-14-2020 , 06:00 AM
Just rebooked my trip to 5/20-5/25 (memorial day weekend) anyone have thoughts on if things will be back up by then?
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03-14-2020 , 10:09 AM
6 months from now will be a nice opportunity to buy a home/condo in Vegas..Economy there is about to start tanking.
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03-14-2020 , 10:39 AM
The ConExpo (Construction) I was working at the Las Vegas Fairgrounds closed a day early.
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03-14-2020 , 10:44 AM
Considering what is happening here in Europe even in countries where public healthcare is practically free I can´t see situation in Vegas coming back to business as usual anytime soon.
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03-14-2020 , 10:55 AM
I was there for two weeks in feb. Had planned on staying through March madness but didn't book a return flight as I wanted to see what how things were going with the virus first.

First time in my life I booked a flight and left on the same day.

Pretty much got ran out of town by two poker players. Both seemed to be very competent, winning players.

One was Euro and didn't ever talk so I know nothing about him. He kept coughing in his hand. A dealer eventually brought him a box of tissue and said something to him. I saw him a couple more times and he was coughing continuously. The day before I left I got seated by him. Played 10 minutes and was so tilted I just left.

The other guy just kept coughing into the air. He owned a restaurant in town, apparently. He talked about how hard it was finding competent staff, all the while just oblivious to the fact that he was continuously spreading germs to everyone in the room.

I guess I saw these guys 6 or 7 times. Just couldn't handle it and bailed.

I have been home for 3 weeks. So far I'm ok, but was somewhat freaked out. Self quarantined myself from some elderly family members to be safe.

It's just sad that even intelligent people can be so oblivious. I'm probably stupid for even making the trip in the first place.
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03-14-2020 , 10:56 AM
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03-14-2020 , 12:19 PM
We cancelled our trip for March 25 - March 31. Birthday trip for me, but can't be upset because my life isn't too affected by all of this. I feel so sorry for so many others who are getting sick, losing their jobs, and obviously especially for those who are dying from this -- I can't imagine the horror of being sick and not getting treated I am so fortunate.
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03-14-2020 , 03:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by soflo
Just rebooked my trip to 5/20-5/25 (memorial day weekend) anyone have thoughts on if things will be back up by then?
I'm coming in for 2 weeks that same day, I am confident it will be business as usual by then.
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03-14-2020 , 03:13 PM
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Originally Posted by macktyson
I'm coming in for 2 weeks that same day, I am confident it will be business as usual by then.
Why? What will change between now and then? A LOT more people will be sick and dying and your chances of getting sick will be greatly increased if you leave the house.

REALLY hope you’re right though, but many of the same reasons things are closing now are going to be reasons for things to be closed down in 2 months.
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03-14-2020 , 03:29 PM
Illinois shut down casinos. Wynn shut down sportsbook. MGM shut down nightclubs.

Full Vegas casino shutdowns are short time away.
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03-14-2020 , 03:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by drbeechwood
I was going for weekend 1 of march madness but cancelled this morning. Hoping to get back to Vegas in the fall. This too shall pass.
Indeed. Shoot me a message when you book
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