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Old 06-29-2020, 10:57 PM   #1
MikeC1975
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Coin in

Is there a way to estimate how much actual coin in you'll get from a deposit?

For example, if I put $300 into a quarter slot machine, I know I won't lose every single pull, so it'll be more than $300, but what is the rule of thumb?
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Old 06-29-2020, 11:09 PM   #2
headlyone
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Re: Coin in

I think it is just bank roll divided by house edge. So $300 on a 90% payback slot would be $3,000. With a small bankroll, there is large variance. A different way to say it would be if you bet $3,000 at 90% payback, you expect to lose $300.
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Old 06-30-2020, 02:27 AM   #3
IQofTwoPlusTwo
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Re: Coin in

Variance is the killer. If the machine has a very rare large jackpot, that is included in the payback percentage. Which means if you run $3 million thru the machine so you hit the grand prize jackpot, yes, you achieve the 90% payback. For shorter runs, or runs where you don't hit the jackpot, your actual payback is going to be a much lower percentage.

For example, in JOB video poker with a 99.64% return, if you don't hit a royal or straight flush, the return is reduced to 97% with perfect play. Theoretically, you have to play 40,000 hands to hit a royal, but there is a 37% chance you won't hit a royal in 40,000 hands, and a 13% chance that you won't hit a royal in 80,000 hands.

So you have a 1 in 8 chance of playing a 99.64% payback machine 80,000 times and actually getting 2% less payback.
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Old 06-30-2020, 12:08 PM   #4
Gzesh
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Re: Coin in

Many years ago, upon request Stations would provide you with an annual statement of your coins in and coins out and win/loss ,broken down on a daily basis.

I think they stopped the practice .

Every machine has a - EV in the aggregate, even those which are +EV with "perfect play" by the occasional sharp player. A different player may in fact be simply rely on gaining enough value from external marketing/comps to offset the -EV from the machine play.

The maximum hold allowed in Nevada historically has been set by Gaming regulation, and it is mind-blowing how bad it can be. The reality is the market historically prevented an operator from jacking up holds to the "legal limit".

(The perception that everyone has a chance also is deemed valuable. A good example was the group of machines that were formerly offered under a "Flush Attack" format. The problem was that, given certain conditions, EVERY Flush Attack machine was +EV for a period of time. This led to mass attacks by sharks, who would occupy machines waiting for someone else to trip the "favorable conditions".)
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Old 06-30-2020, 12:36 PM   #5
magking1
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Re: Coin in

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gzesh View Post
The maximum hold allowed in Nevada historically has been set by Gaming regulation, and it is mind-blowing how bad it can be. The reality is the market historically prevented an operator from jacking up holds to the "legal limit".

(The perception that everyone has a chance also is deemed valuable. A good example was the group of machines that were formerly offered under a "Flush Attack" format. The problem was that, given certain conditions, EVERY Flush Attack machine was +EV for a period of time. This led to mass attacks by sharks, who would occupy machines waiting for someone else to trip the "favorable conditions".)
Is this info publicly available..got a link or a place I can research this?
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Old 06-30-2020, 01:00 PM   #6
Gzesh
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Re: Coin in

Quote:
Originally Posted by magking1 View Post
Is this info publicly available..got a link or a place I can research this?
Yes, Nevada Gaming Regulations, including this sort of information, are publicly available.

I was writing from memory and did not go back and look the information up anew, which is why I said "historically". My recollection from years back is that a gaming machine back then could have been set to hold up to 15%, although you may want to verify that under current regs.

If you were to google for the current information, you should be able to find it quickly enough.
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Old 06-30-2020, 02:23 PM   #7
pig4bill
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Re: Coin in

Quote:
Originally Posted by magking1 View Post
Is this info publicly available..got a link or a place I can research this?
Nevada Gaming publishes a lot of this info, including the hold % of each casino. Most of them hold nowhere near the legal limit because they know people would stop gambling there.
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Old 06-30-2020, 02:39 PM   #8
magking1
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Re: Coin in

Okay I will check it out.

I dont have any numbers in front of me but suspect that
most of the indian casino players WISH they could get 85perent payback.

Correct me if Im wrong but dont they tend the have MUCH worse odds overall.
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Old 06-30-2020, 05:23 PM   #9
John Mehaffey
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Re: Coin in

Quote:
Originally Posted by pig4bill View Post
Nevada Gaming publishes a lot of this info, including the hold % of each casino. Most of them hold nowhere near the legal limit because they know people would stop gambling there.
I do not believe there is any way to find the hold for specific casinos for confidentiality reasons. The most detailed I have ever been able to find is by region, like Strip, downtown, Boulder Strip, Laughlin, unincorporated Clark etc.

Those numbers are not typically useful. The more video poker is played in a region, which is a favorite in the locals market and somewhat downtown, the lower the hold will be. When you see casinos say they are x% looser than the Strip, it may not mean the slots are looser, just that there are more video poker players.

The maximum permitted hold on a Nevada slot is 25% per gaming regulations. I doubt you will find any games that are worse than about half that.
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Old 06-30-2020, 06:48 PM   #10
pig4bill
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Re: Coin in

Quote:
Originally Posted by John Mehaffey View Post
I do not believe there is any way to find the hold for specific casinos for confidentiality reasons. The most detailed I have ever been able to find is by region, like Strip, downtown, Boulder Strip, Laughlin, unincorporated Clark etc.

Those numbers are not typically useful. The more video poker is played in a region, which is a favorite in the locals market and somewhat downtown, the lower the hold will be. When you see casinos say they are x% looser than the Strip, it may not mean the slots are looser, just that there are more video poker players.
You might be right, it was a few years ago that I looked at it. I remember being surprised at how low the hold was.

Quote:
The maximum permitted hold on a Nevada slot is 25% per gaming regulations. I doubt you will find any games that are worse than about half that.
The only one that's close are the Megabucks machines, and I think they were separated out on the reports I saw. I think those stats are skewed because the casino doesn't actually pay out, or at least not all of it. I think they are paid by the Megabucks consortium that pools the take from all the casinos.
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Old 06-30-2020, 07:04 PM   #11
DisRuptive1
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Re: Coin in

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeC1975 View Post
Is there a way to estimate how much actual coin in you'll get from a deposit?
It's your bankroll (or play roll) divided by the house edge. A Vegas casino will have 6-15% house edge so your $300 could get you $2,000-$5,000 in play which would give you around 8,000 to 20,000 pulls or 14,000 pulls on average.
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Old 06-30-2020, 07:56 PM   #12
Sooga
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Re: Coin in

Plus, your bankroll money-wise is irrelevant. It's your bankroll bet-wise that would factor into the calculations.
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Old 06-30-2020, 08:05 PM   #13
Villian1
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DisRuptive1 View Post
It's your bankroll (or play roll) divided by the house edge. A Vegas casino will have 6-15% house edge so your $300 could get you $2,000-$5,000 in play which would give you around 8,000 to 20,000 pulls or 14,000 pulls on average.
I haven't played many slots but $300 for 14,000 pulls sounds like a heck of a deal. I can't be reading that right.
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Old 06-30-2020, 08:11 PM   #14
Sooga
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Re: Coin in

Quote:
Originally Posted by Villian1 View Post
I haven't played many slots but $300 for 14,000 pulls sounds like a heck of a deal. I can't be reading that right.

If each pull is 25c (which is what it is according to his $/pull calculations), that sounds reasonable, though even still I would say on the high side.
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Old Yesterday, 03:40 AM   #15
pig4bill
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Re: Coin in

Well he said $2k-$5k in play. The maths isn't that difficult - $1 bets, 5 coins per pull, it's 400 to 1000 pulls.
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