You are correct

The flu did not prevent the WSOP from 1970-2020.

Herd immunity/vaccines will kill this off for all intents and purposes.

It's a matter of when, not if.

This isn't the flu, and herd immunity/vaccines are not a sure thing yet. There has never been a vaccine for a coronavirus before, although there is hope for this one based on what was learned from the last MERS outbreak.

The problem with Herd immunity is the number of people that would need to be infected in order for Herd immunity to kick in would mean that probably over 10 million people in the US would die. So the only real hope is a vaccine which despite the usual gang of liars saying right around the corner or by the end of the year is at the very least a full year from now from even being introduced.

Lets call it an even 5% direct death rate from covid (for sake of argument) Thats 12.5 million people.

One of the overlooked issues which hasnt been explored in great detail yet because people are worried more of the immediate issues that surface from covid are longer term issues, such as cancer, reduced lung capacity, and whatever else they havent discovered yet.

So... i'd probably double that to maybe 25 million people in the course of 50 years.

If we were to pursue a herd immunity strategy, it would need to be done by deliberately infecting asd many young and health people as possible, while strictly locking down the older and vulnerable population.

The IFR for young and healthy people is probably around 1 in 5000. So if we had pursued this strategy from the beginning, and infected only the 200 million healthiest members of the population, we could have achieved herd immunity with only about 40,000 deaths, fewer than we already have now.

The IFR of the virus for a random distribution of the population is likely around 0.6%. So if you just let the virus run rampant until it infected 200 million people, you are talking about 1.2 million deaths. While this is a lot less than the 10 million you estimate, it is almost ten time the deaths we have already seen, and definitely not a reasonable alternative.

If you just let the virus run rampant, the fatality rate will be higher due to the lack of hospital care.

You mean, as opposed to taking actual seriously infected people and forcing nursing homes to accept them as (temporary) new residents?

Not really what was being discussed here.

I was at Bellagio and Cosmo all weekend and here is what I saw. Masks were loosely enforced. Most people had them on but when you can remove them to drink, eat or smoke, it defeats the purpose. What constitutes as a "mask" anyways? People wore bandanas, cloth sleeves, welders masks etc.
Here is my new Poker vlog from the Bellagio 2/5 game

Why has there not been a coronavirus vaccine?

Well before SARS they were thought to only cause mild illness so there was no attempt to make a vaccine. And with SARS and MERS they “died off” before a vaccine. But actually there was acSARS vaccine developed but it just did not complete testing So your case is much weaker than ar first glance

As to why there is no flu virus vaccine is also easy to consider. First there is no flu virus. Flu is caused many different viruses not one. Plus there are flu vaccines. The issue is that the dominant strain changes each year plus each strain mutates.

The fact that immunity to covid after infection is almost a guarantee gives high likelihood a vaccine is possible. We don’t how long immunity lasts or how long a vaccine would

Seems aria reopened today on schedule including their poker room (6handed plexiglass). Ill probably be stopping by later today as i had my money stuck in aria security deposit box this whole time.

I think "welder's mask" aka face shield is going to be my device of choice when I go out - from what I've read, they have better filtering capability than a mask (seems obvious), they cover your eyes, another potential point of entry for a virus, and I guess you could slip a straw up to your mouth with one on.

I bought a five pack - haven't worn them yet.

the face shield isnt going to block particulates from entering the orifices of your face if someone open sneezes in a room with controlled air. in fact you may never see the sneeze, but the HVAC / AC system would simply blow it within your proximity and you could get infected that way.

given this thing is 4x more contagious than the flu, i' would think this is quite a plausible outcome.

Any chance for a “boots on the ground” update when you have the time.

I only played for a little over an hour. 6 handed, plexiglass, mandatory masks available in poker room. Around 2:30 pm they still only had 2 tables running (1/3, 2/5 nl) while bellagio had 11-15 running. I was there mostly to try to get the plo rock going but it didnt seem likely as it was only 2 on the list so left after that. NL game was a little tame on the action but soft.

I strongly suspect this was all cos no one actually was aware aria had reopened coupled with the fact that day 1 of online WSOP started on the same day.

Security box money was there and safe and aside from some dealers feeling a bit rusty, i think aria poker room will pick back up assuming no big hiccups with state corona cases or closures.

Side notes: players had to get chips as no chip runners. Swipe in player card at podium not at table which seems a little odd. Burger lounge was open, didnt bother to check other food places like 550 or lemongrass.

Fyp to make it more relevant to the thread topic ...

Too late.

Golden Nugget says "gaming says you still have to wear a mask".

Even if you wear a face shield.

So why even bother.

Enjoy your souvenirs.

Thanks for the update.

I'd be wearing both anyway

both. face shield and a mask..

If you dont want to deal with a face shield, wear glasses. They probably have about the same efficiency if you have a mask on already

I remember Excalibur tried full electronic poker tables back in the day. How long would it take for those to come back and is it realistic? If no dealer then games can be six handed right?

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People still have to sit around the table. Those tables sucked. I don't think they ever played cash games on them, only sng's. I only liked them because they were cheap, like 60 bucks or so.

There was a casino in Palm Springs (Fantasy Springs) that tried a 100% electronic poker room. This was right before Black Friday, so pretty good time to try something innovative in poker; they must have had about a dozen tables in there. Result? Even in the middle of the poker boom people hated the machines, the room opened and closed within 6 months. People just didn't like the feel of being on an electronic machine for what's supposed to be a "live" poker experience.

So other than Bellagio and Caesars which rooms are open right now? I have seen in this Thread golden nugget and Venetian as well as aria. Any others?