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Is my potential student deleting losing hands?

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05-02-2020 , 04:07 AM

Kookool

stranger

Join Date: May 2020 Posts: 6

Hi fellow coaches,

A player recently asked me to review him, and sent me his data of over 40k hands.

I reviewed it and suspected the data is... rigged. Most of the statistics are just close enough to be suspicious but not impossible, except for one critical value... his EV when facing bet on the river.

It's positive. +89.72 bb/100.

So, I turn to you - I want to make sure I'm not missing anything before jumping to conclusions. Is there any way this is possible without rigging the data? Or does this confirms my suspicions?

TY

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05-04-2020 , 04:07 AM

rickyroll

newbie

Join Date: May 2020 Posts: 19

I'm not a coach but FWIW, is the metadata plausible?

E.g., the date tags should be such that the hands/hour are plausible. Hands/hour is a statistic that I expect to be approximately normal and to converge pretty quickly.

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05-05-2020 , 10:48 AM

Kookool

stranger

Join Date: May 2020 Posts: 6

I will check.
So far I checked statistics of % of hole cards, % of hitting certain things on the flop, etc - but the thing is, you only need to delete very fee big losing hands to maasively skew the win rate, and the overall statistics won't budge much.

He doesn't have any hand where he loses a massive pot with actual game play taking place. The few that do exist are all in situations with KKvs AA or other such uninteresting spots. The whole thing feels off, it's very different than any data I've reviewed, including data of crushing regs

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05-05-2020 , 11:00 AM

rickyroll

newbie

Join Date: May 2020 Posts: 19

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kookool

Well, you cannot just delete a few hands.

If you do, you need to use scripts to adjust the entire subsequent part of the session. You will need to adjust stacks of all remaining players for all subsequent hands in the session, otherwise it will be super-obvious it's doctored when you go through an entire session. That, ofc, is easily done with PT4 using the "replay all hands in report" function after sorting by date.

(Alternatively, you need to delete all hands in a session following a big loss--also a lot of work if done without a script.)

And rethinking the issue, I don't like my previous suggestion that much anymore.

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05-06-2020 , 02:42 PM

Kookool

stranger

Join Date: May 2020 Posts: 6

Quote:

Originally Posted by rickyroll

So I guess the most plausible way is deleting entire sessions, which isn't hard at all. And the overall statistics would look normal.

I since found more pieces of data that are very off, so I'm pretty he's done something. That is just not a reasonable set of hands.

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05-14-2020 , 03:18 PM

mediacalc

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 283

What reason would a student have to delete hands? If it's some type of CFP deal, wouldn't they delete winning hands instead?

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05-15-2020 , 11:29 AM

silverware

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2018 Posts: 204

Quote:

Originally Posted by mediacalc

What reason would a student have to delete hands? If it's some type of CFP deal, wouldn't they delete winning hands instead?

Desire to look good? Or feel good?

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05-17-2020 , 11:56 PM

Bkpokerkid

enthusiast

Join Date: Jun 2016 Posts: 91

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kookool

Hi fellow coaches,

Hey just curious would you take on students if they didn’t have hand histories? I’m looking for a coach and I have a little experience 6years playing cash games and a few online MTTs recently and I’m trying to transition more to MTTS but I never recorded my hand histories but I was just wondering because I can see how important that is for a experienced coach and if so do you know any good ways I could record mine starting now (apps, tools, etc..) I know your job is to get paid for giving advice but thought it would be worth a chance asking.. thanks ! 🙏🏼

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05-23-2020 , 02:25 PM

Kookool

stranger

Join Date: May 2020 Posts: 6

Quote:

Originally Posted by silverware

Desire to look good? Or feel good?

That, and also - this guy is a coach himself mostly to beginners, and he is using these graphs to advertise himself. And a recommendation from me would give him a lot of students that I don't take because I don't work with beginners, so it's important for him to look good in my eyes

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05-23-2020 , 02:27 PM

#10

Kookool

stranger

Join Date: May 2020 Posts: 6

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bkpokerkid

No harm in trying

but I'm only teaching (and playing) cash... easiest way to record is playing on sites that save hand history - poker stars, wpn sites. There is a way to get hand history from gg network as well.

Last edited by Kookool; 05-23-2020 at 02:36 PM.

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06-16-2020 , 03:13 AM

#11

ohmyrage

adept

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 877

I think if he heavily over folded flops and turns, and trapped a lot of strong hand, he could have this type of result. He could be getting murdered vs flop and turn bets, and have wayyyyyy too strong a river range?

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07-22-2020 , 04:05 PM

#12

Kookool

stranger

Join Date: May 2020 Posts: 6

Quote:

Originally Posted by ohmyrage

I thought about this option, but the data doesn't show over folding in previous streets, and also his river calling frequency is above what is expected - in fact this calling frequency has to be losing money, but somehow the field is always bluffing him - and other data I have from the same field shows they're generally under bluffing on the river.

So yeah, I pretty much concluded it is rigged... for now I just told him I won't take him as a student for lack of time, and I'm considering what to do next.

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07-24-2020 , 03:37 AM

#13

whipEEr

newbie

Join Date: Jan 2015 Posts: 23

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