Clinton's a lock in FL w. no campaigning on either side and a 20 point lead, so, lots of that.

I'll also be camping the results for the GOP side but there's no reason to do anything there until those start coming in.

Do you like anything on Super Tuesday? I just noticed that they opened markets for most of the Super Tuesday states, some of them haven't seen any action yet. You might try setting a sucker line and seeing if anyone bites without other action to compare it against.

For starters, someone is trying to short IL.Clinton at 80 lol. Coming as someone from Illinois, the fair value of that line is about 15.

Adantharian one,

Don't forget to let us know when you make your official Florida picks, and what amounts and whatnot. Your railbirds demand accurate tracking.

Also, do you feel like putting together a brief summary of whatever longterm bets you have thus far? I believe you have some Obama and McCain nominee picks? But I don't feel like sifting through the 16 pages to find everything.

After finding out that I can make 10-20% on whatever $ I don't have locked up during an election just going with the flow, I sold off all my long term picks.

Currently I'm down about $500 total on the elections (this includes a big bet on another forum that I won but the guy welshed on. w/e.) I have a little over 2K worth of combined Obama.SC shares/Hillary shorts there that I bought for an average of 87, but I'll be getting rid of them before election day and trading on the results again. I'm also going to make a bunch off Clinton in Florida, and that'll basically be it till Super Tuesday when (if Rudy loses FL) I think I'll just short him everywhere/trade the results one more time.

What'd you sell them for? I thought you were going to be announcing your buys/sells as they happened in this thread. Did your change your mind and you're only gonna fill us in some of the time?

This thread isn't supposed to be about the bets you made with us Paulbots or with people on other forums. It's Adanthar vs. the market. No holds barred. How are you doing on intrade?

Again, please just remember to keep your railbird 2+2 friends filled in on the specifics when you make these buys and sells.

adanthar, are u gonna sell rudy in florida? he's only at 18.5% RCP avg. and 7 on intrade.

Best you can do is only get a sell putting up 96 to win 4... not sure if its worth it.

@ the borgata so not around/updating much.

re: long term picks, I didn't bother updating b/c I made +0-2 points on everything I sold off except some hedges. don't have an exact Intrade total b/c I also hedged outside bets there, but I'll tally everything related to this bet up on 2/5 or 2/9.

C'mon Adanthar, try to keep up. This thread is important business.

briefly:

didn't have as much time to camp the site as I wanted today but did pick up a couple of hundred. more importantly, I did have time afterwards to get a lot of value picks in (now is the time to do it as there are no further things to sink money into prior to 2/5.)

I'm long a couple of hundred shares of GOP.Nom.McCain again at ~78 (will probably be holding it as I see no way for him to lose CA or New England now), short a couple of hundred Obama shares in MA at ~30 (if I can't sell it at a decent profit due to lack of action, I wanna hedge this somehow, but not sure how yet), and long ~300 Edwards.Dropout.Feb shares at 43 because somebody decided to sell them at 43 (I think the fair value of these is something like 70.) I've got some other assorted "guaranteed 10%" bets in too, but those are the main picks.

oh, I added up some stuff. looks like I actually lost $2850 on NH but have now made up over half of that (bigger deal than it seems b/c of less funds to work with = lower return). if McCain wins the states he is supposed to win on 2/5 or I take profits early and find some Obama/HRC value somewhere, I'll be in the black at that point pending Edwards.

pick up any Pres.McCain shares, since they are at 32, and bound to hit 55 sometime during the year?

more like 99.6 amirite

easiest $1600 ever, so yeah, I'm in the black now.

Does Edwards.Dropout.Feb payout if he drops out in January?

Dropouts from 2008 Presidential Race. Feb 2008
John Edwards to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 29 Feb 2008

got a bunch of them earlier today but still filling the order

final post (probably) before 2/5. holdings right now:

+200 Pres.McCain shares @ 32.8 avg
+322 GOP.Nom.McCain @ 81
+42 Combo.Obama/McCain @ 32
-193 Dem.MA.Obama @ 29.7 (still thinking about whether/how to hedge or arb, ideas?)
+~250 various "free $" shares @ ~85-90 (stuff like Romney winning Utah/Hillary winning NY)

I also have some minor longs on Obama in AL/GA, shorts on Huck in TN, a decent position on Hillary winning OK and a small flyer on McCain winning ND b/c the shares were going between 30-50 and he's got way more than 50% equity in any "unknown" state with no Mormons.

still have 1500 to play with, may leave it in reserve for free 20% bets or something.

ps: made $200 on Dropout.Feb.Paul by buying at 25/selling at 70

wait, I lied, one more post:

does anyone know how the networks are planning on calling states on Tuesday? are they gonna be calling NY before CA is done voting? knowing this would be really helpful in determining how much to leave in reserve.

Adanthar, I'm not sure, but I would be very surprised if they didn't announce NY as those polls closed (without caring if CA's are still open). I would expect that it would be the same as in past election nights/super tuesdays, where the east coast results come first and then the midwest as those polls close etc.

Bodog has Super Tuesday bets back up:

Bet On: Which Democratic candidate will win the majority of primaries on Super Tuesday (Feb. 5)?

Super Tuesday includes all Democratic primaries and caucuses held in American Samoa, AK, CA, ID, UT, AZ,NM, CO, ND, MN, KS, OK, MO, AR, IL, TN, AL, GA, DE, CT, NJ, NY and MA. All wagers will be graded based on results as posted by CNN.
If two or more candidates tie, all wagers will be graded No Action. Any wagers placed after the result is public knowledge will be No Action. Singles Only. Max. $50.

Hillary Clinton -200
Barack Obama +150

Clinton is still a lock, right?

ATM I have it at 9 Obama - 9 Clinton - 5 real tossups, so if there's any value in that 50 point vig bet it's on the Obama side.

moved around a lot of shares: now 734 shares @ 34.8 (had to wait a couple of days to fill) and 210 Pres.Romney's @ 4 as a hedge/likely waste of 50 bucks
sold off at 89, need $ to move around tomorrow sold most, broke even took the profit and covered at ~17, instead add 140 shares of Obama winning Utah at 40 (!) because some guy wanted to sell them moved around a bunch of these, broke even in total (still have 120 Hillarys in OK @ 81, though).

looks like I'm up around 7% heading into 2/5. if it breaks the way I anticipate, it'll be a very good day.

so bassicaly all your money is on McCain taking down the republican nom?

that's about $2500 worth, def not "all of it". I also have 4K free for action tomorrow. but the GOP side has way less risk/more easy money than the Dem side as of this second, IMO.

Can't sleep, so, postmortem:

I did two things very right, and one thing wrong. Almost all of my predictions prior to 2/5 were dead on, and they largely continued to be once the count actually began, except for one thing: because they fit my preconceptions and what I hoped the last minute vote was doing, I trusted Drudge's leaked polls. As such, I immediately jumped into the Dem market with both feet when I was previously committed to staying away from it until I saw EST results. The upside was that, when the aforementioned results came in and proved those polls horribly flawed, in most cases I got to take the money and run everywhere else before the market knew what hit it. I immediately got out of the national Dem market only down $500 or so and actually made a big profit off the states.

In short, I give myself a B+ for the night.

Oh yeah, results...up 2800 on the night, 35% total, and nearly 100% since NH with a lot of money still sitting in those guaranteed $$$ Pres.McCain shares.

Not sure how much you want to tie up for this... just got an email from RP saying he was not going to run as a 3rd party for President. It's trading at 10 now to sell. Free 10% on your money there.