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triple draw odds?

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06-05-2008 , 08:31 AM

PLOlover

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 5,552

had some charts I got off here for triple draw but can't find them.

for example one question I have is if an opponent draws 2 and then stays pat, what is the distribution of his pat hand? one distribution for him having 237 and drawing two, one for him having 238 and drawing 2.

anything like that?

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06-08-2008 , 11:25 AM

MarkGritter

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 1,540

I don't recall seeing something exactly like that but the numbers are easy enough to generate. Here's the distribution for drawing 2 to 237KA:

Code:

7 5 4 3 2       0.0148011       0.0148011
7 6 4 3 2       0.0148011       0.0296022
7 6 5 3 2       0.0148011       0.0444033
8 7 4 3 2       0.0148011       0.0592044
8 7 5 3 2       0.0148011       0.0740056
8 7 6 3 2       0.0148011       0.0888067
9 7 4 3 2       0.0148011       0.103608
9 7 5 3 2       0.0148011       0.118409
976xx           0.0148011       0.13321
98xxx           0.0148011       0.148011
T-high          0.0740056       0.222017
J-high          0.0888067       0.310823
Q-high          0.103608        0.414431
K-high          0.0888067       0.503238
A-high          0.0971323       0.60037
pair of deuces  0.105458        0.705828
pair of threes  0.105458        0.811286
pair of fours   0.00555042      0.816836
pair of fives   0.00555042      0.822387
pair of sixes   0.00555042      0.827937
pair of sevens  0.105458        0.933395
pair of eights  0.00555042      0.938945
big pair        0.0277521       0.966698
trips           0.0333025       1

(to figure out the distribution for pat hands, just cut the table off at the appropriate place.)

And here's drawing two to 238KA:

Code:

8 5 4 3 2       0.0148011       0.0148011
8 6 4 3 2       0.0148011       0.0296022
8 6 5 3 2       0.0148011       0.0444033
8 7 4 3 2       0.0148011       0.0592044
8 7 5 3 2       0.0148011       0.0740056
8 7 6 3 2       0.0148011       0.0888067
98xxx           0.0592044       0.148011
T-high          0.0740056       0.222017
J-high          0.0888067       0.310823
Q-high          0.103608        0.414431
K-high          0.0888067       0.503238
A-high          0.0971323       0.60037
pair of deuces  0.105458        0.705828
pair of threes  0.105458        0.811286
pair of fours   0.00555042      0.816836
pair of fives   0.00555042      0.822387
pair of sixes   0.00555042      0.827937
pair of sevens  0.00555042      0.833488
pair of eights  0.105458        0.938945
big pair        0.0277521       0.966698
trips           0.0333025       1

For example, if your opponent starts with 832 and only pats 8's or better, then you know he has an 87 half the time.

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06-09-2008 , 06:54 AM

PLOlover

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 5,552

thought i posted this already in this thread but i guess it didn't go through. looks same as what you got. now my question, what about dead cards and stuff, does that matter?

anyway, I was thinking that if opponenet draws 2 and stays pat their range will be weighted towards rough hands like 9's, but in practice it seems like 50/50 sevens and eights. which means if you got an 87 you are screwed, not in good shape.

Quote:

say a guy has 237 and draws two, just going by his cards, is this right?

20/47 and 16/46 for a 9 low or better = 15%

16/47 and 12/46 for an 8 low or better = 9%

12/47 and 8/46 for a 7 low = 4.4%

so making
7 - 4.5%
8 - 4.5%
9 - 6%

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