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pzhon, I do indeed think there are exceptions to the 50 buyin rule (although it is generally a decent answer)
I don't think it is a decent answer. It's hard to reconcile a fixed guess like that with the mathematical models unless you feel the ROI is constant across a wide variety of situations, which would be a very surprising assertion. It's like saying that the time is generally about 4:00, but there are exceptions.
If you feel it is right to have 50 buy-ins for $20 SNGs, then fewer should be right for $5 SNGs, and more should be required for $100 SNGs, unless you feel $5 and $100 SNGs should give you the same ROI, or that typical winning players at those levels have the same ROI.
If you accept the figures for turbo SNGs in the SNG FAQ (I don't), then you should need about 4.5 times as many buy-ins when you play $3.40 SNGs as when you play $335 SNGs.
I can appreciate the idea that when a model says you are safe, you might need more buy-ins due to unmodelled considerations. However, do you feel that it is ok for nonmathematical reasons to use a bankroll that the mathematical models say is unsafe? Perhaps low stakes players mistake balances for bankrolls, but it is at higher levels where the 50 buy-in guess fails most spectacularly.
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-- I go into this much more detail in the section on SNG Business Concepts in my book.
Ok. I haven't read your book. Can you describe the scope and depth of that section?
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STTF debates your remaining questions pretty vigorously ...
I was hoping that you could say something authoritative based on your careful study of SNGs. Much of the STTF discussion is quite shallow, which is why I no longer contribute to that forum.
One common idea in the STTF is that you might as well sit out in early levels and let the maniacs knock each other out. This disagrees with my impressions, but I haven't tracked my average chip count at the end of each level while using my style of tackling maniacs, much less my ICM-estimated equity. Are you aware of any such analysis?