I have been 8-16 tabling NL100 for ~37K hands and am making an average hourly of $42. i am very pleased with this as being only 20 its the most well payed thing i have ever accomplished. due to financial reasons i am withrawing most of my winning at the moment given my stats, what kind of long term winrate can i exppect and how many hands do i rly need before i can say i am really beating the game. thanks for any input.

Brace yourself....

When you have 10x that sample you'll have a good idea that you can beat the game consistently and over the long term provided you continue to improve and develop at least as fast as the average.

It pains me to say it because I remember when I used to proudly look over 20k hand samples but 36k honestly doesn't mean jack!! TBH it's not even an indication as you can run so good or bad over that period.

Ace is right, altho they are good stats it is a very small sample, most people that play for a living will play double that in a month and you can run really good for that amount of time without it being a good indication of you ability to beat the game long term

Your results thus far are enough to show that you are beating the game. As for win rate you won't really know for sure until you have played quite a bit more hands. But, I wouldn't be surprised if you could sustain your current win rate given your stats assuming you don't tilt or have gigantic leaks post flop.

That you have to ask hints to me that you dont have what it takes

This is always a bad question. The answer is, if you are truly going to become great at poker and have crazy success, there shouldn't be a longterm at NL100. I don't mean to say that great players can't arise after tons of SSNL grinding, becuase it happens all the time. However, that shouldn't be your goal. And when people always post about WR and then people say "omg not big enough sample." It's kind of wierd because, that person should be taking shots at higher games immediatly as soon as they feel comfortable. THey shouldn't be prepared for the long haul at a SSNL level.

So I guess what I'm poorly trying to get at is that, in these types of threads, we shouldn't be telling people "you don't have enough hands" and stuff like that, instead we should be saying things like "Good start, take a shot at the next level and work your way up." And then maybe reccomend some things you found tranisistion in levels or stuff you started to understand or work into our games at these stakes.

I don't know, it just seems like always putting people down immediatly and saying things like not enough hands, come back at 300k, etc. Is kind of counter productive to the goal of this community. I wish when i was coming up as a player and sought advice people encouraged me to move up quickly and work on my game, instead of just telling me to play tons of hands and check back later.

This probably didn't make any sense and it's getting long winded so whatever.

To the OP, some things you want to maybe work into your game is squeezing pf at FR games, its an untapped goldmine sicne everyone is so passive facing 3bets and aggression. Also, maybe be on the lookout for spots to c/r turns instead of 2barrelling.

but 2 barrelling is like 3x cheaper

900 downswings not uncommon...and with only 37k hands win rate and everything else will change

My first 37k hands at 100nl I never had a >4bi downswing. In my last 120k hands I've had 3 10bi downswings so it may in fact be a small sample .

Ryan, I <3 you and will happily continue to donate to your cause at the tables.

well said and i couldnt agree more. not to hijack thread, but when you say move up/move up when is a good time to do so?? is 50k hands enough at 3ptbb/100?? (what do you consider the standard/average??) i know its about comfort also, but assuming you have a 30-40 BI roll should you be grinding up atleast 30 BI for the next limit up before making it full time? im more used to 6 max requirements for moving up which IMO is more strict. right now im 100NLing with almost a 70 BI roll (12 tables) and im looking to 1/2 very soon but i feel like even 8 tabling the 1/2 is under my roll at the moment. i have played much 1/2 and 2/5 live so i am confortable at the level, its just a matter of a 5 BI downswing is so much more significant at the next level up and im trying to exercise overly solid BR management here.

@RyanCMU
nice post

@OP
I think 37k hands give a good indication that you beat the game. Concerning your winrate it depends what kind of a downswing you had in that period. I usually a large break even or DS period in 30k hands. So if you didn't have one, your longterm winrate wil probably be lower. But your stats seem generally fine and the winrate should be sustainable.

Btw. I usually leveled up after 30k hands.